The future of Automation and Artificial Intelligence (Al) will change on how "We" live and work!

What influence will the continuing march of technology, automation and artificial intelligence (AI) have on where we work and how we work? Will we need to work at all? What is our place in an automated world?

Many commentators focus on technology and the role that automation is predicted to have on jobs and the workplace. I believe the real story is far more complicated. This is less about technological innovation and more about the manner in which humans decide to use that technology. The shape that the workforce of the future takes will be the result of complex, changing and competing forces. Some of these forces are certain, but the speed at which they unfold can be hard to predict. Regulations and laws, the governments that impose them, broad trends in consumer, citizen and worker sentiment will all influence the transition toward an automated workplace. The outcome of this battle will determine the future of work in 2025-2040. When so many complex forces are at play, linear predictions are too simplistic. Businesses, governments and individuals need to be prepared for a number of possible, even seemingly unlikely, outcomes.

The megatrends on a large scale are the tremendous forces reshaping society and with it, the world of work: the economic shifts that are redistributing power, wealth, competition and opportunity around the globe; the disruptive innovations, radical thinking, new business models and resource scarcity that are impacting every sector. Businesses need a clear and meaningful purpose and mandate to attract and retain employees, customers and partners in the decade ahead.

Technological breakthroughs: Rapid advances in technological innovation

Automation, robotics and AI are advancing quickly, dramatically changing the nature and number of jobs available. Technology has the power to improve our lives, raising productivity, living standards and average life span, and free people to focus on personal fulfillment. But it also brings the threat of social unrest and political upheaval if economic advantages are not shared equitably

Demographic shifts: The changing size, distribution and age profile of the world’s population

With a few regional exceptions the world’s population is aging, putting pressure on business, social institutions and economies. Our longer life span will affect business models, talent ambitions and pension costs. Older workers will need to learn new skills and work for longer. ‘Re-tooling’ will become the norm. The shortage of a human workforce in a number of rapidly-aging economies will drive the need for automation and productivity enhancements.

Rapid urbanization: Significant increase in the world’s population moving to live in cities

As of today, many of the largest cities have GDPs larger than mid-size countries. In this new world, cities will become important agents for job creation.

Shifts in global economic power: Power shifting between developed and developing countries

The rapidly developing nations, particularly those with a large working-age population, that embrace a business ethos, attract investment and improve their education system will gain the most. Emerging nations face the biggest challenge as technology increases the gulf with the developed world; unemployment and migration will continue to be rampant without significant, sustained investment. The erosion of the middle class, wealth disparity and job losses due to large-scale automation will increase the risk of social unrest in developed countries.

Resource scarcity and climate change: Depleted fossil fuels, extreme weather, rising sea levels and water shortages

Demand for energy and water is forecast to increase by as much as 50% and 40% respectively by 2030. New types of jobs in alternative energy, new engineering processes, product design and waste management and re-use will need to be created to deal with these needs. Traditional energy industries, and the millions of people employed by them, will see a rapid restructuring.

The potential for digital platforms and AI to underpin and grow the world of work is unbounded. They already play an essential role in the development of all Four Worlds of Work, matching skills to employer, capital to investor and consumer to supplier.

This platform layer brings a digital value chain and commoditization and automation of the back office but comes with warnings. While it can create a thriving marketplace, it can grow to take over the entire economic system. And with platform pervasiveness comes vulnerability to cyber-attacks or wide-scale manipulation.

Closely linked to digital is data. How governments, organizations and individuals decide to share and use it is key to all our worlds even the most human-centric.

Finally AI: the digital assistants, chatbots, and machine learning, that understand, learn, and then act based on that information3 .It’s useful to think of three levels of AI:

Assisted intelligence, widely available today, improves what people and organizations are already doing. A simple example, prevalent in cars today, is the GPS navigation program that offers directions to drivers and adjusts to road conditions.

Augmented intelligence, emerging today, helps people and organizations to do things they couldn’t otherwise do. For example, car ride-sharing businesses couldn’t exist without the combination of programs that organize the service. Autonomous intelligence, being developed for the future, establishes machines that act on their own. An example of this will be self-driving vehicles, when they come into widespread use.

Some optimists believe AI could create a world where human abilities are amplified as machines help mankind process, analyze, and evaluate the abundance of data that creates today’s world, allowing humans to spend more time engaged in high-level thinking, creativity, and decision-making

Today: Automating repetitive, standardized or time-consuming tasks and providing assisted intelligence. Increased demand for STEM skills to build new tech ecosystem.

Emerging: Fundamental change in the nature of work. Humans and machines collaborate to make decisions. Uniquely human traits emotional intelligence, creativity, persuasion, innovation become more valuable.

Future: Adaptive continuous intelligent systems take over decision-making. The future of humans at work is questioned.

Yellow, Red, Green, and Blue will represent the four worlds in 2030-2035

(Will discuss each world in further details)

The "Yellow" world (humans):

Social-first and community businesses prosper. Crowdfunded capital flows towards ethical and blameless brands. There is a search for meaning and relevance with a social heart. Artisans, makers and ‘new Worker Guilds’ thrive. Humanness is highly valued.

The "Red" world (Innovation):

Organizations and individuals race to give consumers what they want. Innovation outpaces regulation. Digital platforms give outsized reach and influence to those with a winning idea. Specialists and niche profit-makers flourish.

The "Green" world (companies)

Social responsibility and trust dominate the corporate agenda with concerns about demographic changes, climate and sustainability becoming key drivers of business.

The "Blue" world (Corporate)

Big company capitalism rules as organizations continue to grow bigger and individual preferences trump beliefs about social responsibility

Breakdown on the "Red" world: Innovation

A world of innovation with few rules:

The Red World is a perfect incubator for innovation. New products and business models develop at lightning speed, far more quickly than regulators can control. Technology encourages the creation of powerful, like-minded, cross-border social ‘bubbles’. Businesses innovate to create personalization and find new ways to serve these niches. There are high rewards on offer for those ideas and skills that best meet what companies and consumers want. But in a world with few rules, the risks are high. Today’s winning business could be tomorrow’s court case.

Agility and speed are essential

Big business has been outflanked in a digital-enabled world that’s teeming with small entrepreneurial companies. Digital platforms match worker with employer, skills with demand, capital with innovator, and consumer with supplier. This allows serial entrepreneurs to reach far beyond their size in terms of influence and scale. Anxious to compete, larger employers fragment to create their own internal markets and networks to cut through old-style hierarchies and encourage and reward workers to come up with new ideas. The pace of development and testing of new products and services has accelerated, increasing the risk of brand damage and failure.

What it means for workers

Specialism is highly prized in the Red World and a career, rather than being defined by an employer or institution, is built from individual blocks of skills, experience and networks. Near-zero employee organizations are the norm. Organizations of a few pivotal people use technology, the supply chain and intellectual property, rather than human effort and physical assets, to generate value. The commercial value of learning takes precedence; a university degree is seen as less valuable than specific and relevant skills or experience. Workers know that the most sought-after skills will mean the biggest reward package. Many move frequently and stay only as long as the project or business lasts. Contract negotiations are key and ownership of intellectual property and the freedom to work are as important as financial incentives.

Who leads on people strategy?

 Innovation and people are inseparable in the Red World.

? HR does not exist as a separate function and entrepreneurial leaders rely on outsourced services and automation for people processes.

? Larger organizations scour the world to ‘acqui-hire’ talent and intellectual property using specialist talent strategists in combination with AI to identify the specialists they want.

? Digital platforms match worker with employer and skills with demand.

? Performance is all about the end result rather than the process ‘old-fashioned’ performance measurement and analysis is rare.

What does the workforce look like?

Specialism is highly prized and workers seek to develop the most sought-after skills to command the biggest reward package.

? Organizations are typically stripped-down and nimble, supplemented by talent attracted by the next promising opportunity.

? A small number of ‘pivotal people’ with outstanding management skills command high rewards.

? Like-minded workers gravitate towards each other, aided by technology, sparking bubbles of innovation.

? Projects quickly flourish, evolve and resolve and specialists move rapidly from one to the next.

Organizational challenges

? Speed to market is everything in the Red World any decision-making process or hierarchy that delays innovation is a barrier to success.

? While ideas flourish, organizations compete to ‘own’ them.

? Innovation creates a high-risk environment; regulation struggles to catch up but when it does, it impacts unevenly and suddenly.

? Workforces are lean but there’s still intense competition for critical skills.

There’s a lack of loyalty from the company towards the employees. Workers with skills in demand will prosper, those with outdated skills will be abandoned.

In 2030, the search for talent is as difficult as ever. Artificial intelligence allows businesses to identify the talent they need, when they need it.

Breakdown on the "Blue" world: Corporate

Global corporates take center stage. Consumer choice dominates. A corporate career separates the haves from the have nots.

Capitalism reigns supreme;

In the Blue World, companies see their size and influence as the best way to protect their prized profit margins against intense competition from their peers and aggressive new market entrants. Corporations grow to such a scale, and exert such influence, that some become more powerful than nation states. Success depends on a productive workforce as large companies compete for the best talent. They push past the limits of human ability by investing augmentation technology, medication and implants to give their people the edge.

Extreme talent:

Corporates may dominate the Blue World, but workforces are lean. Exceptional talent is in high demand employers secure a core group of pivotal high-performers by offering excellent rewards but otherwise buy in flexible talent and skills as and when they’re needed. Human effort, automation, analytics and innovation combine to push performance in the workplace to its limits; human effort is maximized through sophisticated use of physical and medical enhancement techniques and equipment, and workers’ performance and wellbeing are measured, monitored and analyzed at every step. A new breed of elite super-workers emerges.

What it means for workers:

For workers in the Blue World, the pressure to perform is relentless. Those with a permanent role enjoy excellent rewards, as do in-demand contract workers with specialist skills but both know that their future employability depends on keeping their leading-edge skills relevant. A corporate employer separates the haves from the have nots; companies provide many of the services, from children’s education, eldercare and healthcare, previously provided by the state. The price workers must pay is their data. Companies monitor and measure obsessively, from the location of their workforce to their performance, health and wellbeing both in and outside the workplace. Organizations use the data to predict performance and importantly, to anticipate people risk.

Who leads on people strategy?

? The Chief People Officer (CPO) is a powerful and influential figure, sometimes known as the ‘Head of People and Productivity’, and who sits on the board.

? The science of human capital has developed to such a degree that the connection between people and performance is explicitly demonstrated by the CPO.

? The people risk agenda is one which is taken seriously by the board as a result, the CPO and HR become more influential.

What does the workforce look like?

? Aside from a core group of high-performers, talent is bought in where and when it’s needed. ‘Retainer and call-up’ contracts are frequently used for rare skills.

? Top talent is fiercely fought over the best engage an agent to negotiate and manage their career.

? Employers begin their search for exceptional talent early, forming links with schools and engaging promising youngsters.

? Employees of all levels take an active role in their own career development, honing their skills whenever they can and however they can including human enhancements.

? Society divides into those with a corporate career and those who don’t have access to the same level of financial rewards, healthcare and benefits.

Organizational challenges

 ? The challenges of size and scale mean that organizations are at greater risk from external threats such as technology terrorism or meltdown and they find it difficult to effect change quickly.

? The value of human capital at the top level is high and the upward pressure on reward, particularly for senior executives, is intense.

? Organizations must develop models and systems which enable individuals and their agents to negotiate the value of their human capital based on employees’ personal investment strategies.

By 2030 to 2040 the gap between the rich and the poor. Either people will have a high paying job or no job at all.

Breakdown on the "Green" world: Companies

The need for a powerful social conscience is paramount. Workers and consumers show loyalty towards organizations that do right by their employees and the wider world.

Companies have to care

In the Green World, corporate responsibility isn’t just a nice-to-have – it’s a business imperative. Companies are open, collaborative organizations that see themselves as playing an essential role in developing their employees and supporting local communities.

Reacting to public opinion, increasingly scarce natural resources and stringent international regulations, companies push a strong ethical and green agenda. This is characterized by a strong social conscience, a sense of environmental responsibility, a focus on diversity, human rights and fairness of all kinds and a recognition that business has an impact that goes well beyond the financial.

Trust is the basic currency underpinning business and employment. Companies have to place their societal purpose at the heart of their commercial strategy.

The automation conundrum

Automation and technology are an essential element of the Green World as they help to protect scarce resources and minimize environmental damage.

Technology is used extensively to replace the need for travel, driving rapid innovation in communications technology.

But the question of where people fit into the automated Green World looms large. Technology is a double-edged sword for Green World employers it allows them to meet their ethical and environmental agenda, but at what cost to humans?

What it means for workers

Employees enjoy family-friendly, flexible hours and are encouraged to take part in socially useful projects. They trust their employer to treat them fairly in terms of pay, development and conditions and in return are expected to reflect the culture of the company in their approach and behavior.

The high ethical standards to which companies are held has cascaded down to employees; conduct and ethics are taken very seriously at work and performance is assessed against a wide range of measures, including how efficiently workers manage their travel and resources. 

Who leads on people strategy?

? The CEO drives the people strategy for the organization, believing that the people in the organization, their behaviors and role in society have a direct link to the organization’s success or failure.

? The HR function, renamed ‘People and Society’ embraces a broad mix of HR, marketing, corporate social responsibility and data analytics.

? A priority for HR is developing and maintaining a series of virtual social networks across the organization and client base to encourage communication and minimize the need for travel.

? Many people decisions are tightly controlled by regulation, from diversity quotas to, mandatory wellbeing support (eg sleep clinics and ‘digital dieting’), to the number of redundancies companies can make during a downturn.

What does the workforce look like?

? Workers are attracted to Green World companies by the opportunity to work for an organization they admire, whose values match their own.

? Even so, competition remains intense for the best talent; financial reward is still important.

? The incentives package is an essential tool in attracting and retaining workers and has become increasingly inventive. Three weeks’ paid leave a year to work on charity and social projects is standard practice.

? Workers are expected to reflect the values of their employer both at work and at home through ‘organizational pledges’.

? Travel is tightly controlled and monitored and there are incentives for inventive and efficient use of resources.

? The idea of a ‘job for life’ returns to the workplace lexicon.

Organizational challenges

? Communicating corporate purpose and values effectively, to the right people, is a fundamental requirement.

? Building and maintaining trust with employees and wider society, especially when it comes to the use of automation, is essential.

? The brand must be protected at all times. The possibility of non-socially responsible behavior within the organization or anywhere along the supply chain carries huge risks. Quality assurance and vigilance is paramount.

? Being compliant is not enough: organizations are under pressure to raise the bar and establish policies and practices which go beyond and even anticipate regulatory requirements.

? Organizations have to balance the trade-off between short-term financial and long-term societal good.

In 2030, realtime reporting of sustainability data is a legal requirement for all listed companies most unlisted entities also voluntarily produce detailed quarterly data.

Breakdown on the "Yellow" world: Human

Fairness and social good are dominant. Businesses with a heart and artisans thrive in a bustling and creative market with a strong emphasis on ethics and fairness. 

We’re all in this together:

In the Yellow World, workers and companies seek out greater meaning and relevance in what they do. A strong desire for ‘fairness’ in the distribution of wealth, resources and privilege drives public policy, leading to increased government intervention and consumers and workers voting with their feet. Workers find flexibility, autonomy and fulfillment, working for organizations with a strong social and ethical record. This is the collective response to business fragmentation; the desire to do good, for the common good. A wider range of work is regulated by a concept of ‘good jobs’ and decent work; moving away from traditional employer/ employee relationships.

The two sides of technology:

Technology has helped to create the vibrant Yellow World by lowering barriers to entry by providing easy access to crowdfunded capital and a worldwide market. This allows entrepreneurial companies to compete in areas previously the domain of large organizations. But there is a central conflict around technology and automation; in the Yellow World, people are less likely to take the downsides of automation without a fight. As more people are impacted by technical advances and see their skills become obsolete, disaffection and the push-back against policies that seem to favor the ‘elite’ grow. However, ‘invisible technology’ such as AI-driven ‘back office’ functional support and the automation of tasks that are damaging or impossible for humans, still pervades.

What it means for workers:

Workers feel the strongest loyalty not to their employer, but to people with the same skills or cause. The Yellow World is the perfect breeding ground for the emergence of new worker Guilds, similar to the craft associations and trade fraternities of the Middle Ages. These Guilds develop in order to protect, support and connect independent workers and often provide training and other benefits that have traditionally been supplied by employers. 

Who leads on people strategy?

? Business leaders are responsible for people direction and management.

? HR rarely exists as a separate function as organizations rely on outsourced services, specialist suppliers and automation for people processes.

? Guilds support workers to build skills and experience by providing training and career development support alongside other help and advice.

? Digital platforms create mobility and help match worker with employer and skills and attributes with demand.

? Performance is about delivering an organizational goal but also, importantly, about employees’ behaviors and societal impact.

What does the workforce look like?

? Like-minded workers gravitate towards each other, aided by technology platforms.

? Individuals come together to collaborate on projects or to deliver on an idea – for as long as it takes.

? Guilds help workers create scale when needed, remain current and build trust in their services.

? Guilds provide members with a strong sense of identity individuals see themselves as members of their profession, identifying with each other because of their particular skills set, interests and goals.

? Non-financial rewards are assessed fairly in a trade-off for less pay.

? Work is often a fluid concept and a regimented 9 to 5, Monday to Friday working week is rare; the borders between home and work are blurred.

Organizational challenges

? Brand and a good ethical record is essential in the Yellow World. The risk of brand damage from rogue workers must be actively managed.

? Organizations are judged on trust and fairness; organizational purpose must be clearly articulated and lived.

? Ethical and transparent supply chain management is critical and penalties apply all along the chain for non-compliance.

? In the Yellow World, relationships with governments and NGOs are vital and need to be closely managed.

The ability to work from anywhere, combined with the advances in telecommunications makes us geographically neutral. However we must ensure that the personal touch is retained.

The people management challenges for the upcoming future: 2025-2035

Finding, sourcing and attracting talent:

People with ideas and organizations with capital seek each other out in a vibrant online marketplace. Talent is attracted by a combination of financial reward and the opportunity to be involved in winning projects.

Organizations compete to find and secure the best talent available and use extensive search and evaluation methods to lock in the stars of tomorrow.

Reward and performance:

Those with in-demand skills expect the highest financial rewards

Performance is obsessively monitored and measured – often in real-time. Excellent incentives are on offer for the best talent, as long as they perform. 

Learning and development:

It’s every man and woman for themselves in the Red World individuals hold responsibility for improving their own skills using a new generation of open-source learning tools.

Development is concentrated on a small core group of high-potentials.

The role of HR:

HR as we know it vanishes, replaced by automation, outsourcing and self-organizing teams.

HR uses advanced analytics to predict future talent demands and to measure and anticipate performance and retention issues.

Role of technology in managing people:

Technology powers the Red World but performance is judged primarily on short-term results.

Sensors and data analytics measure and optimize performance continuously

Technological trends will destroy many jobs. But at the same time also create numerous jobs

Green World companies seek likeminded individuals to extend their corporate family, taking great care to select only talent with the right behaviors and attitudes.

Companies use technology to explain their purpose and cause openly. If their values are right, and the idea appealing, talented individuals and relevant Guilds flock to help.

Organizations focus on total reward, which recognizes corporate citizenship and good behaviors alongside performance.

Fair pay drives the Yellow World; organizations and workers respect each other’s needs and capabilities. When disputes occur, the Guild will stand up for its workers.

Personal and professional development fuse in areas such as volunteering. Companies train people to deal with ethical dilemmas and weigh up difficult economic v social trade-offs.

Individuals take responsibility for lifelong learning, turning to Guilds for support.

HR acts as guardian of the brand. There is a strong focus on creating the right culture and behaviors and on guarding against sustainability and reputational risk across the supply chain.

The traditional core functions of HR are held by business leaders, the collective or taken on by Guilds.

Technology helps people to build work into their lives and minimize their environmental impact.

Technology creates and supports the open, honest, collaborative community of the Yellow World.

So what does this mean for our current and upcoming jobs?

As more individual tasks become automatable through AI and sophisticated algorithms, jobs are being redefined and re-categorized. A third of people worldwide are now worried about losing their job to automation .

It’s clear that automation will result in a massive reclassification and rebalancing of work. Some sectors and roles, even entire sections of the workforce will lose out but others will be created. Automation will not only alter the types of jobs available but their number and perceived value. By replacing workers doing routine, methodical tasks, machines can amplify the comparative advantage of those workers with problem-solving, leadership, EQ (Emotional Intelligence), empathy and creativity skills.

Those workers performing tasks which automation can’t yet crack, become more pivotal – and this means creativity, innovation, imagination, and design skills will be prioritized by employers.

This view is supported by business leaders worldwide who responded to our most recent CEO survey . While CEOs are keen to maximize the benefits of automation 52% told us that they’re already exploring the benefits of humans and machines working together and 39% are considering the impact of AI on their future skills needs the majority (52%) were also planning to increase headcount in the coming 12 months. Finding the skills they need has become the biggest threat to their business, they say, but the skills they’re looking for are particularly telling: problem-solving, adaptability, collaboration, leadership, creativity and innovation top the list.

Adaptability in organizations, individuals and society is essential for navigating the changes ahead. 

Automation of routine tasks encourages the increased specialism we see in the four worlds. This suggests that those workers with the critical skills that organizations need will become the ultimate prize whether they are full-time employees or contract workers. These are the ‘pivotal’ people those that contribute outsized and absolutely crucial value to their organization.

Finding and keeping these pivotal people will be a huge challenge in every world. They will be hard to find and difficult, in a loyalty-light world, to keep. And in the hard-driven Red and Blue worlds, the risk of losing pivotal people to burnout or early retirement (comfortably funded by the high rewards they’ll command) will be a constant worry.

That’s why organizations will need to pay careful attention to the employee value proposition the reasons why these extraordinary people were attracted to working with them in the first place.

Pay attention: Understand how technology is developing and what it and the other megatrends could mean for the world of work and you specifically.

Find the gaps: In an automated world we will still need human workers. Whether this is working to develop technology, alongside it or in narrow, very specialist or very human types of employment the places automation simply can’t compete in yet. Work out where you want to be.

Get your skills in order: The skills needed for the future are not just about science and technology. Human skills like creativity, leadership and empathy will be in demand. Identify the skills you need and start to concentrate on how to build them and how to use them alongside technology.

Adapt to survive: The human race is infinitely adaptable but also risk averse. Work out what holds you back whether structural and financial (loans, mortgages, responsibilities) or emotional. Work out what matters to you and your family and plan for change.

Jump on a passing ship: There is no one future-proof career, only better options for you. Determine how to get to the ‘next better thing’.

The secret for a bright future seems to me to lie in flexibility and in the ability to reinvent yourself. If you believe that the future lies in STEM skills and that interests you, train for that. But be prepared to rethink if the world doesn’t need so many programmers. If you are a great accountant who has prospered by building strong client relationships, think how you can apply that capability, without necessarily having to be an accountant. Think about yourself as a bundle of skills and capabilities, not a defined role or profession.

The technological or robotized workforce will be the biggest impact on the way we work but the human work will always be a unique and determining factor in any organization.