Future of AR/VR, 5G and Transportation: When Will We Achieve 1B 5G and AV/VR Users? Digital Twinning & First COPX Climate Change Conference in VR?

When: Saturday Jan 4 at 10:30-11:30 CST.

Where: VirBELA https://www.virbela.com/opencampus

Note, if you plan on joining, please send me a linkedin message.

VirBELA is PC based VR. No HMD/VR goggles required. It is free to set up an account.

1.     Download VirBELA at: https://www.virbela.com/opencampus

2.     Before the talk, Set up your account and design your avatar - takes about 10 minutes

Agenda:

• 21st Century – The Century of the Billion & Billions. In order to achieve 1 Billion VR Users, 1 Billion Smart Robots and 1 Billion AV, we will need 5G.
• 5G will generate $13.2 trillion by 2035, 22.3 million jobs, 5G value chain invest $ 235B 80% US federal, state and local transportation  - IHS Markit https://www.qualcomm.com/media/documents/files/ihs-5g-economic-impact-study-2019.pdf
• Mobile Operators reducing emissions - $2 trillion of additional economic output by 2020 & creating a more sustainable society
• 6G of Transportation - VR for a Scalable, sustainable & salubrious - Saving time, treasure and Terra Earth
• Digital Twinning & First COPX Climate Change Conference in VR https://unfccc.int/event/cop-25#eq-1

As this article highlights, there is a lot of expense and travel to have the COP25 conference, can VR help to reduce GHG emissions? – especially for those who care about climate change. 

The latest UN climate conference by the numbers: $100 million, 27,000 attendees, 1 prominent Swedish teenager, and 0 tangible outcomes

https://www.businessinsider.com/united-nations-cop25-climate-conference-in-madrid-by-the-numbers-2019-12

My goal is to have the COP conference to support VR digital twinning in 2 years and that in 5 years, at least 50% of attendees participate via VR.

This will be the article by 2027: The latest UN climate conference by the numbers: 50% cost and GHG savings, >40,000 attendees >50% in VR, many young people working on planet protecting actionable projects (not just protesting), and many tangible outcomes.

I am a member of Abundance Digital https://www.diamandis.com/abundance-digital and I gave a Presentation to the Abundance Digital community on the: Future of 5G, AR/VR, Transportation and AVs. In my talk I highlighted that Philip Rosedale at High Fidelity gave the following Prediction in January 2019: 1 Billion People in VR by 2027. He also made the following points:

?       Smart education and learning market size USD 586 Billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 24.84% (Source: Markets and Markets)

?       Global entertainment market USD $2.2 trillion.

–      In the U.S. the entertainment and media market was worth USD 575 billion in 2014 and is expected to grow to over USD 720 billion by 2020. (Source: Statista)

?       Global ecommerce markets sales are anticipated to nearly double from 2017–2020, reaching over $4 trillion (Source: eMarketer, Shopify)

?       1 Billion People in VR by 2027

–      $1 Trillion Dollar Economy ? 50 Million Servers ? 100M People Online at Once ? Learn, Work, Play, Travel

But see this recent blog:

4 fundamental advances in HW need to happen before HMDs replace mobile and desktop general-computing use.

-       Until VR headsets don’t feel like, as The New Yorker’s Patricia Marx puts it, “a gerbil’s casket [has] been plastered onto the upper half of my face,”

https://www.highfidelity.com/blog/updates-and-a-new-beginning

https://www.highfidelity.com/blog/requiem-for-the-hmd

What Will Drive the Mass Introduction of VR/AR?

?       PC VR may be a great way to introduce VR to the masses as HMD is optimize for the masses.  

–      Motorola smart phone Q in 2005 vs iPhone in 2007 vs iPhone/Android in 2015

?       HMD Trends 

–      2016 1G HMDs: Tethered to a PC Can’t read text clearly

–      2018 / 2019 2G HMDs: Mobile, Inside-Out Tracking, Higher Resolution

–      3G HMDs

?       AR Integration, See-Thru Cameras

?       Gaze Tracking, Facial Capture

?       Hand/Finger Tracking,

?       You Can Type at a Normal Speed

?       Wearable All Day

?       Same Quality as a Desktop Screen

Are 1 Billion VR users possible in 2027?

See the blog: The 21st Century – The Century of the Billion and Billions.  Technology can move very fast. https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/21st-century-billions-doug-hohulin/

"But I never said, 'billions and billions.' For one thing, it's too imprecise." - Carl Sagan

Past

1802 - 1 Billion Humans (aligns with the beginning of the industrial revolution)

2002 - 1 Billion Cell Phone Users – 200 years later

2005 - 1 Billion Internet Users

2007 - 1 Billion Global internet device installed based

2008 – 1 Billion Installed PC based

2010 – 1 Billion Vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle

2011 - 1 Billion Smart Phone Users

2014 – when there were as many mobile devices as humans in the world

2017 – 1 Billion EDGE AI DEVICES (ABI)

Future

2023 – 1 Billion 5G Users

2027 – 1 Billion VR Users

2033 - 1 Billion Smart Robots

2039 – 1 Billion AV/UAV/eVTOL

2040 – 10 Billion Smart Robots (year when there will be as many robots as humans on the earth) - Softbank Robot press_20151022_01.pdf

2102 - 1 Billion Smart Robots in Space

2202 – 1 Billion Humans in Space

Every January, Peter Diamandis host a 3-day summit called Abundance 360. His goal during these 3 days is to get the entire A360 membership excited about the future and to help them harness converging exponential technologies, create wealth, and solve globally significant problems. Members of Abundance Digital can stream for free live and on demand – No travel needed which saves on GHG.

See these 2 Workshops that may be of interest:

The Future of 5G & Augmented Reality Workshop: Join Daniel Diez (Magic Leap’s Chief Marketing and Communications Officer) and Mo Katibeh (AT&T’s Chief Marketing Officer) to discuss how the combination of 5G networks, Augmented Reality (Spatial Web) and Artificial Intelligence will transform everything... from retail and advertising to education and entertainment. Take a deep dive into these converging advancements in connectivity and AR, and the entrepreneurial opportunities they will bring about.

The Future of Transportation Workshop: Covering everything from autonomous and flying cars to Hyperloop, this workshop will bring together Josh Giegel (Co-Founder and CTO of Hyperloop One), Nikhil Goel (Uber Aviation’s Head of Product), and Hod Lipson (Autonomous Car expert and Director of Columbia University’s Creative Machines Lab). A near future of instantaneous and autonomous transit is closer than you might think. These breakthroughs will transform real estate, insurance, finance and entertainment. It will change where you live and work, and how you spend your time. It is critical for any entrepreneur and leader to understand the first-order implications and second-order business opportunities that will emerge as a result.

In my talk related to AV, I highlighted this article

Self-Driving Cars Could Help Save the Environment—Or Ruin It. It Depends on Us, highlights that “Automated vehicles could reduce energy consumption in transportation by as much as 90%, or increase it by more than 200%” https://time.com/4476614/self-driving-cars-environment/

I point out the 5Gs of Transportation

?       0G: Walking – (0.5G) Riding a Horse or Other Animal

?       1G: Ships & Boats – The oldest boat ever found is ~10,000 years old

?       2G: Train - ~200 years

?       3G: Automobiles - ~130 years

?       4G: Planes - ~114 years

Each New Transportation G has Increase Speed but Has Impacted the Planet

?       5G: Automated & Autonomous Vehicles

See this blog: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/5g-communication-system-transportation-doug-hohulin/

But if we really want to save energy, we need to travel virtually.  

6G – VR Transportation My first experience with Business VR - VirBELA! Scalable, Sustainable & Salubrious Saving Time, Treasure and Terra Earth

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/6g-transportation-my-first-experience-business-vr-virbela-hohulin/

There are ~38M km road network and 1.2B vehicles going to 2B. The 2020s will be an exciting time as the road network is transformed with AV, EV, AI and 5G.    1.3 Million people die on the road system every year but if nothing changes, there could be 2.4 million deaths by 2045.  If we can just reduce the growth of traffic to 0% in the next 10 years, we will have made significant progress.  

Right now, growth, congestion, fatalities and GHG from transportation continues to go up. If we do not change the way we do things, the transportation future we will be facing is more congestion & time wasted in traffic, more pollution, more lives lost on an inefficient road system. There is such a great opportunity to make a safer, cleaner and more equitable world if we just work smarter.  5G and AR/VR can play a role in changing how we travel. Here is to a cleaner and safer world.