The Future of Animal Health is the Future of Human Health

In January 2020, coronavirus had yet to cause the profound impact that we have since seen on the global economy and society. I had never heard of the OIE, the World Organisation for Animal Health, but was intrigued when they got in touch. In my initial reply to them I reflected on the futures relevance of their work, commenting that “it is always worth discussing the prospect of a large-scale pandemic starting in animals and affecting billions of people.” Foresighters do not try to make predictions, but sometimes we are inadvertently prophetic in our imagination of the future.

In the setting of my work at the emlyon business school, I invited my contact at the OIE to experience the future in an unconventional and potentially uncomfortable new way: as a case study in the Disrupted Futures (‘d.futures’) programme, led by Professor Thomas Gauthier. Inspired by numerous approaches including the Oxford Scenarios Programme and UNESCO Futures Literacy Labs, d.futures seeks to demonstrate the value of exploring the future in terms of what might happen—not just what we think will happen or what we want to happen. To do this, students are coached through a process of developing scenarios. Scenarios are sets of alternative fictional descriptions of the future manufactured for the purpose of challenging or reframing the client’s worldview (Ramirez and Wilkinson, 2016). The goal is to help leaders “use the future” (Miller, 2018) to make wiser, more robust strategic decisions.

Policy experts and decision makers are futures thinkers whether they realise it or not. Yet like all humans, they tend to reach for the same familiar modes of thinking when it comes to the future. Strategy is often built on assumptions about the future—like that the future can be controlled; or that present conditions will endure; or that past trends will continue. When these assumptions turn out to be unfounded, organisations may find themselves missing great opportunities or succumbing to grave threats.

Animal Health Futures

With that in mind, I coached over 50 students as they took on the challenge of imagining the future for the OIE. They envisaged how it could face a future very unlike its past or present. They scanned the horizon for signals of change; identified plausible disruptive world transformations; designed futures where the rules of the game were different; and constructed scenario stories that delivered their findings in a catchy, interactive, and relatable way. Lastly they presented their scenarios in an ‘immersive experience’ to their real-world client, and used them to explore some big strategic questions. What did their scenarios teach about the OIE’s future-fitness? What new courses of action make sense today in light of these insights?

What hidden truths about today’s reality were revealed by a discussion of a future which hasn’t yet materialised?

Below is a short synthesis of the future worlds that the students constructed, and the implications they might entail for the OIE. It cannot be stressed enough that these are not predictions or recommendations, but explorations. They are not the official position of any organisation or country. They are also intended specifically for consideration by the OIE; readers may draw their own conclusions about what lessons these scenarios could hold for their own organisations—if any.

Some of the students' ideas went in highly original and even farfetched directions, touching on topics like artificial meat, insects as food, and a universal cure for all pathogenic disease. Though some might find these ideas too implausible to discuss, I found value in using them as metaphors for some of the real challenges the OIE faces today. At the risk of manipulating or even censoring what the students really meant, I used some of my own analysis to create the four scenarios that follow.

Scenario 1: PhilanthropOIE

Foundations take on a greater role

The year is 2030 and private philanthropy foundations are more influential than ever. They have rushed into the vacuum created after public opinion turned on international organisations in the wake of numerous crises. As populism became part of the fabric of society, philanthropic organisations also became influenced by a public demand for charismatic leaders. More than ever, the level of attention and resources allocated to dealing with global issues was determined by those championing the issues more than the needs measured by things like GDP or Sustainable Development Goals. The OIE is struggling to justify its existence despite knowing that it has an important role to play behind the headlines.

What might a much greater role for philanthropic organisations mean for international organisations?

Is it really an opportunity to continue business as usual? The OIE is already familiar with several high-profile foundations; as others arrive on the scene, are the current and in-draft policies at the OIE related to partnerships sufficient to evaluate potential opportunities? Are their policies flexible enough to take into account changes within the foundations’ own governance and programme frameworks and/or values that may not be aligned with the OIE’s own or that of its membership? 

Scenario 2: Nature Backed into a Corner

‘One Health’ is part of ‘one living’

The year is 2030 and the world has become a volatile mix of luxurious paradise living complexes alongside city slums, and all of it sprawling further outwards into space previously reserved for nature. The idea of wilderness barely exists any more, as virtually all land and even some of the oceans are under the influence of humans. In some cases nature is carefully managed, but in most parts of the world the increasing interaction between humanity and wild animals is creating new and unexpected pressures. Light, noise, and air pollution have damaged ecosystems and altered the habits of many species, leading to wild animals roaming the streets, plagues of invasive species, and a shocking epidemics of diseases such as rabies in humans and animals in parts of the world where formerly there have been no cases and the return of the plague. Nature has been backed into a corner. The OIE is one of the organisations best placed to help people understand this tense stand-off and find ways to deescalate the situation.

Will people have the humility to admit that they can no longer treat Mother Nature as they please?

Can the OIE play a role in helping the wider public to understand how their health and animals’ health coincide in a world where environmental health is approaching a tipping point?

Scenario 3: Big Farma

Medical breakthroughs leave governments behind

The year is 2030 and numerous breakthroughs in pathogenic modelling and AI drug discovery have made it possible to predict the emergence of new diseases in advance and prepare vaccines and medicines to treat them within days or weeks, unlike in 2020 when it could take months or years. These technologies are still in their infancy for human diseases, but for animals, where ethical restrictions were lower and economic priorities were higher, the world is truly transformed. At the same time however, these breakthroughs do not come for free, and an expected boom of cheaper medicinal products for animals has not materialised. Farmers wishing to protect their livestock are practically obliged to spend large sums of money on testing for all kinds of genes and pathogens, and then for patented drugs to administer. Pharmaceutical companies are praised for their success in creating more humane, efficient, and environmentally responsible value chains, but they are also criticised for profiting so substantially from their achievements. Farms which do not use precision animal medicine are far less productive and cannot compete. The OIE needs to not only keep abreast of these rapid developments, but stay ahead of the curve in order to maintain its reputation as a cutting-edge institution in its field.

What are the implications of a much greater role for technology and market dynamics in the world of animal health?

Will the OIE be able to preserve a neutral role in a world where the preeminence of multinational pharmaceutical companies and the competition between them are much greater determinants of animal health than in 2020?

Scenario 4: DIY Animal Health

City power is the future of international relations

By 2030, so much of the world’s population now lives in cities where almost all of the world’s economic activity and a great deal of the big political decisions are now concentrated. National governments are still important, but they are very much intertwined with the interests and influence of the large cities within their borders. Global value chains have been replaced by fragmentation and localisation of production and consumption, made even easier because industries and factories have become multidimensional. This has created some industrial flexibility, leading to the fact that almost anything can and will be able to be produced by almost anyone, especially with the 3D printers that have become commonplace and are now accessible by a lot of people. Not only does this benefit small-scale, organic farmers and consumers, but it also contributes to increased biodiversity since many people now have personal, small farms with animals such as hens for eggs. With a much more heterogeneous and distributed livestock sector, animal health and welfare have become something of a Wild West, where practices and outcomes vary greatly in different areas. The OIE, an intergovernmental organisation, is increasingly aware that governments’ voices are echoing a much broader diversity of local actors.

In a world where city power is growing, how can international organisations respond in light of their governance structures?

What becomes of the OIE’s role in WTO processes when most production goes local and the main trade is in digital files? Can the OIE take the opportunity to rapidly build on local-level efforts, which are already, in 2020, proving to be increasingly effective at detecting, preventing, and controlling disease?

Learning from 2030

The purpose of these scenarios is not to ‘get the future right’, but to get the present right through actions today that will prepare the OIE to be increasingly future-fit. Scenario planning is a process that is never complete, and it is common to develop scenarios iteratively, as the scenarios listen and respond to the strategic decision-making they are intended to reframe. This reframing process, when successful, generates mutual learning on what is possible and changes how an organisation responds or adapts the resources and tools it has on hand.

Whatever future we really get (it won’t be one of these scenarios, or a continuation of the present) will be a result of our combined actions today. Therefore in order to create better futures, we must first imagine them collectively. Strategic foresight is a participatory endeavour. My greatest hope for the students of emlyon, and for the OIE, is that this collaborative experience has given them a greater sense of agency in shaping our shared future.

References

Ramírez, Rafael, and Angela Wilkinson (2016). Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.

Miller, Riel, et al. (2018). Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century. London: Routledge.

Photo: Maryland Department of Agriculture. https://flic.kr/p/jDmmJ5

The ideas expressed in this article are born of the imagination of the students who participated in the course d.futures. Nothing in this article should be interpreted as the view of the OIE, the OECD, or any of their members.