The futility of trend forecasting

Look, don't get me wrong - I love a trends presentation more than anyone.

But I can't help but feel that in early 2021, they're more futile than ever. We live in chaotic times. We can barely plan a week ahead, let alone predict what might happen across the next 12 months.

Of course, that hasn't stopped all of the trend writers mapping out their predictions for 2021. Here's one useful compendium of trends reports. Wadds has another. This Google Drive repository makes three (my favourite phrase so far is 'liquid infrastructure'. Thanks Fjord).

Part of the joy of a trends report links to our desire for a fresh start in 2021, leaving 2020 in the past. It's an attractive narrative to tell ourselves, even if the first week of 2021 proves how false that narrative is.

My advice is to enjoy the trends reports, but enjoy them with a critical eye. Rather than getting excited about 'liquid infrastructure', focus on the slower, less headline-grabbing shifts that are arguably more important.

Shifts like the rise of Substack, and the increasing number of high-profile journalists moving wholesale onto the platform. The New Yorker has a great primer on this. So far, it's mainly US journalists making the shift; how long before UK journalists spot an opportunity? And how will Substack itself change as the range of writers it hosts broadens? (FWIW, at Teneo we've been talking about 'journalists as influencers' since our SXSW sessions in 2019).

Or shifts like TikTok's seemingly endless hiring spree in the UK and Europe (seriously, every day someone pops up in my LinkedIn feed announcing their new job at TikTok). TikTok was a big winner in the UK during lockdown one; will that growth continue exponentially? And do businesses and brands really understand how to reach audiences on a platform that looks and feels so different from where most comms people spend their time?

Or, a personal hobby horse, the untapped potential of video games as communication channels. Last year, I wrote a piece wondering if 'gaming' has an image problem among brands, business and agencies. Whether it's because gaming comes with negative connotations, or because the term 'gaming' does a disservice to the gaming ecosystem's breadth, it's still "the biggest untapped creative opportunity in marketing". Brands and businesses should be looking at ways they can get involved.

People who work in comms love the new thing. But often our new thing isn't what audiences care about. And starting with them is never a futile endeavour.