Fusion Energy breakthrough: Commercial scale plants 10-15 years. Promise of clean, cheap, limitless energy!

When the BBC asked Professor Stephen Hawking what world-changing idea he would like to see humanity implement, he said, “The development of fusion power to give an unlimited supply of clean energy.”

Every day, we see fusion power in action. That’s because our sun and every star in the sky uses nuclear fusion to power itself for billions of years.

The Industrial Revolution, fuelled by fossil fuels, gave a 1000-fold energy density compared to animal energy. Fusion will provide a one-millionth extra fold energy density over that.

Breakthroughs have spurred private investors and venture capitalists to invest heavily in the potential of fusion energy, with some predicting it could be available as soon as 2030. However, more grounded industry experts maintain that commercialization may take up to ten years.

Fusion energy has the potential to be a game-changer, offering a clean, affordable, and virtually limitless source of 24/7 energy that could power our world for thousands of years.

techcrisp.org investigates.

What is Fusion

99% of the energy produced in the Universe is based on fusion. All the stars, including our Sun, produce energy by fusion of Hydrogen atoms. British astronomer Arthur Eddington first theorized in 1920 that the sun was powered by a fusion reaction that could be replicated on Earth to generate unlimited energy. Nuclear physics pioneer Hans Bethe identified the process underpinning Eddington’s theory in 1939.

Since the 1950s, physicists have sought to harness the fusion reaction that powers the sun.

The Sun is made up of 73% hydrogen and 26% helium. In the core of the Sun, the temperature can reach up to 15 million degrees Celsius, and the pressure is around 250 billion atmospheres. These extreme conditions cause hydrogen atoms to lose their electrons, leaving only their nuclei or single protons, which move around very quickly. These protons often collide with each other, and when they do, one of them may change into a neutron, releasing a positron and a neutrino in the process. This reaction creates a heavier hydrogen nucleus called deuterium, which consists of one proton and one neutron.

?When a deuterium nucleus collides with a proton, it combines to form a helium-3 nucleus comprising two protons and one neutron. Later, two helium-3 nuclei can collide and merge to form a helium-4 nucleus consisting of two protons and two neutrons. During this process, two protons are released.

A small amount of mass is converted into energy throughout the fusion process by Einstein's renowned equation, E=mc2. In this equation, ‘ c ‘ is the speed of light, which is 299,792 kilometers per second (km/s). When squared up, it becomes a colossal figure; therefore, a considerable amount of energy is released from a small mass quantity. This energy is discharged through gamma rays, which are high-energy photons. These gamma rays interact with the encompassing matter, finally arriving at the surface of the Sun, where they are discharged as sunlight.?

Fusion reaction in man-made Fusion reactors is created by heating hydrogen isotopes — normally deuterium and tritium — to extreme temperatures that the atomic nuclei fuse, releasing helium and energy in the form of neutrons. The hot plasma that is formed needs to be confined.

Most fusion research has focused on magnetic confinement fusion. This process involves holding a plasma of two hydrogen isotopes, usually deuterium and tritium, in place with powerful magnets and heating it. Scientists have struggled to control the reaction to generate sustained energy and electricity for decades.

The hot plasma creates electricity by induction in magnets or generates steam, driving steam turbines and electric generators as in fossil fuel-based power plants today.

Proposed reactors can be broadly grouped into two categories: One, known as tokamaks, uses powerful magnets to produce plasma. (Fusing atoms takes a lot of heat, pressure, or both.) The other uses inertial confinement, which aims to crush and energize a target by striking it with a laser.

Other emerging technologies in the sector are Magneto Inertial and Hybrid Electrostatic confinement.

Soviet physicists developed the first fusion machine in the 1950s using an approach known as magnetic confinement fusion. The charged particles of the plasma were shaped and controlled by the massive magnetic coils placed around the vessel; physicists use this vital property to confine the hot plasma away from the vessel walls.

In inertial confinement, lasers are fired at a tiny capsule of hydrogen fuel, triggering an implosion. In December 2022, the National Ignition Facility of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) of the USA made history by achieving a significant milestone in nuclear fusion research. A fusion reaction in a laboratory setting released more energy than it consumed for the first time, achieving a phenomenon known as "ignition" or "scientific energy breakeven.”

0.45 Kg of fusion fuel equals 4.5 Million Metric Tons of coal!

Conventional nuclear energy based on fission is created when uranium atoms are split, producing atomic waste. Fusion reactions create no long-lived radioactive byproduct and could never result in a nuclear accident, such as at Chornobyl in 1986. One advantage of fusion is that, unlike nuclear fission, it does not create radioactive, spent fuel that needs to be stored in secure silos for thousands of years. Tritium, an input to fusion energy, is mildly radioactive; however, there are solutions to handle that.

The most efficient chemical inputs for fusion are deuterium and tritium. Deuterium is abundantly available. Tritium is extremely rare, and many fusion companies have plans to produce it in-house using Lithium.

What are the benefits?

Economics

According to a paper published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2020, titled "A Simplified Economic Model for Inertial Fusion” by Nicholas Hawker, fusion energy has the potential to provide a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) as low as $25/MWh.

The estimated average global LCOE of other energy sources in 2030 is provided below. These estimates align with the 2020 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures.

Figures in US$ MW/hour

Solar PV 35 + 15 ( flexibility cost )

Onshore Wind 35 + 15 ( flexibility cost )

Offshore Wind 50 + 15 ( flexibility cost )

Coal 50

Gas 80

Nuclear 100

Due to the intermittency of renewable power, a flexibility cost of US$15/MWh is added for battery storage or natural gas peaking power.

The initial cost of fusion energy technology could be around US $60/MWh. However, it is expected to decrease significantly to around US $25/MWh as technology develops and the supplier ecosystem is created.

“I couldn’t be more optimistic,” says Silicon Valley venture capitalist Sam Altman, who recently invested $375m in the US fusion start-up Helion. “In addition to being our best path out of the climate crisis, less expensive energy is transformational for society.”

According to projections, the world's population is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050.

Energy experts from BP Energy Outlook 2023 predict that energy consumption will grow by 17%, and fossil fuels will still make up 57% of the energy mix in 2050.

However, IEA's Net Zero scenario predicts that energy consumption will fall 40% from current levels, with only 16% of the energy mix coming from fossil fuels and the rest from renewable sources in 2050.

It is difficult to predict how the energy scenario will unfold. However, fusion energy has the potential to provide clean, reliable power at reasonable prices and could be an effective solution for thousands of years.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world must spend approximately US$6 trillion annually for the next 25 years to achieve Net Zero. Fusion energy has received only a thousandth of this investment amount, while it could be a game-changer.

Eternally Abundant

Fusion fuel has a power density 10 million times greater than fossil fuels. The abundantly available hydrogen isotope Deuterium on Earth is one input. The second input, Tritium, is rare; however, most fusion companies produce the same using Lithium.

Economic Benefits

Fusion Energy will outperform wind and solar-based energy prices in the long run. It will significantly reduce dependence on non-renewable energy sources, such as fossil fuels, subject to price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Geopolitical Benefits

The advancement and implementation of fusion energy technology will significantly decrease reliance on foreign energy sources, susceptible to political instability and supply interruptions. Furthermore, fusion energy will offer a way for nations to reduce their carbon footprint and satisfy global climate objectives, resulting in increased cooperation and synergy regarding environmental concerns.

Environmentally Sustainable

Fusion power produces no harmful emissions or radioactive waste, making it safer and cleaner than fossil and nuclear energy sources.

Universally Applicable

Advancements in fusion research continue to improve human life and safety. Fusion technologies have been successfully deployed for advanced cancer treatment, medical isotopes, and next-generation national security scanners. Moreover, fusion will play a crucial role in space power and propulsion, creating exciting opportunities for space exploration.

Progress Till Date

There are approximately 43 players in the Fusion industry, up from 33 in 2022, with more being added in 2024. The number of fusion companies worldwide continues to grow exponentially.

One fusion company has existed since 1992, with another emerging in 1998. However, most of these companies have only appeared between 2018 and 2023. These companies are primarily focused on generating reliable and always-available electricity.

Apart from generating electricity, fusion technology can also provide heat for industrial processes, generate hydrogen or synthetic fuels, power desalination plants, or even propulsion in space exploration.?

Of 43 players, 25 companies think the first fusion plant will deliver electricity to the grid before 2035. Companies are increasingly confident that they will meet their ambitious goals. Industry players contend they will be commercially viable in 2031-2040.

Pragmatic observers feel that a High Energy Gain of 10-20 times over energy input may take time. Another concern is the sourcing of Tritium.

Many players say there are still many technical science and engineering challenges related to achieving fusion power efficiency, resolving plasma science, and heat management. And almost every company still thinks funding is a challenge, as plenty more will still be needed to reach commercial viability.

Helion Energy (US$577 million raised) has signed a Power Purchase Agreement to provide Fusion-based electricity to Microsoft as early as 2028. This lights a beacon of hope.

TAE promises to operationalize its Pilot plant by 2030 and later go in for a 350-500 MW plant.

Investment

The fusion industry has now attracted over US$ $6.3 billion in investment, of which US$ 5.9 billion is from private VCs.

In 2023, $1.4 billion more was invested than in 2022, with 27 companies increasing their funding levels in 2023.

Chinese company Energy Singularity Fusion has received about US$ 120 million from local VCs.

Some of the big private fusion companies that have raised VC funding are:

Commonwealth Fusion - US$ 2 Billion

TAE Technologies - US$ 1.2 Billion

Helion Energy - US$ 600 Million

General Fusion - US$ 250 Million

Tokamak Energy - US$ 200 Million

Others - US$ 1.65 Billion

According to a Bloomberg report, the development of fusion energy could significantly impact the global energy market, which is currently valued at $15 trillion. The implied enterprise value multiple to gigawatt usage over 20 years gives oil, gas, and coal single-digit multiples vs. renewables’ huge 17x multiple, which one cheaper fusion could exceed, given it would undoubtedly replace all primary energy in the long run.

The country-wise list of Fusion companies is as follows:

USA 25

UK 3

Germany 3

Japan 3

China 2

Sweden 1

France 1

Italy 1

Israel 1

Australia 1

New Zealand 1

India has yet to announce any plans for a Fusion plant despite having a very competent team of scientists and researchers in the atomic energy space. This is surprising since India is the third largest consumer of electricity.

Governments Become Involved

Last year, significant new public-private partnership programs commenced in the USA, UK, Germany, Japan, and China.

A regulatory framework for fusion, distinct from nuclear fission regulation, is gaining momentum. The United Kingdom was the first to take action, followed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's decision in April 2023. This regulatory certainty is expected to decrease the risk associated with fusion and could attract additional private investment.

In March 2022, the White House announced plans to develop “a bold decadal vision to accelerate fusion.” In August, it included $280mn in the Inflation Reduction Act for the Department of Energy to support fusion projects.

The UKAEA is both advancing plans for a new national fusion demonstration plant to be built by 2040 and supporting the development of a wider fusion industry through funding for private companies.

Japan has recently released its first national fusion strategy, which aims to leverage its existing manufacturing capabilities to establish a leading position in developing supply chains for the global fusion industry.

German scientists funded by the government have been developing an experimental fusion device called a stellarator. In 2023, the Ministry of Education and Research in Germany published its first fusion paper, outlining its plans to provide €370mn in additional funding to the fusion industry by 2028. This would bring the total state funding for the sector to €1bn over the next five years.

China has filed more patents in nuclear fusion technology than any other country over the past decade.

Who are the key players?

There are two major research projects, the ITER and STEP, in France and UK. Then there are the 40-odd players in the private sector.

Two Research Projects - ITER and STEP

International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, France

It is a global research initiative backed by 35 countries to build the world’s largest magnetic confinement machine in France.

The main goal of the ITER project is to investigate and demonstrate the concept of burning plasmas. These plasmas can maintain their temperature without external heating, thanks to the energy produced by helium nuclei during fusion reactions. Additionally, ITER will test the feasibility of critical technologies such as superconducting magnets, remote maintenance, and plasma power exhaust systems.

The construction costs were initially estimated at €5bn but have risen to as much as €20bn.

The EU is responsible for 45 percent of the budget. The UK, China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the USA are some of the key partners in the project. The ITER reactor completion date is optimistically expected in 2025, though there are high chances of delay.

ITER-India is the Indian domestic agency of the Institute for Plasma Research (IPR) under the Department of Atomic Energy. ITER-India is responsible for the delivery of various ITER packages.

Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP), UK

A UK venture sponsored by the UK Atomic Energy Authority to build a fusion power plant will provide a concept design by 2024. It will provide electricity to the UK National Grid, but it will not be a commercial plant. The STEP project, built in Nottinghamshire, aims to use pioneering reactor technology to finally prove fusion’s promise as a safe and potentially inexhaustible source of low-carbon energy.

Private Sector Projects

We shall give an update on the five most significant projects.

Commonwealth Fusion Systems

Is backed by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, in which Bill Gates has a stake. It shall use a stellarator, conceived by the American physicist Lyman Spitzer in 1951 but primarily abandoned after tokamak breakthroughs in the 1960s appeared to offer an easier route to fusion.

CFS is building a demonstration plant called Sparc, which it hopes will achieve energy gain by 2025. It then has plans to demonstrate commercially viable power in the early 2030s with a 400 MW plant. Many public-sector scientists suggest that these timeframes could be very optimistic. However, Philippe Larochelle at Bill Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures, which first backed CFS when it was founded in 2018, said the fund’s fusion investments should no longer be seen as speculative. “The reason we’ve invested in CFS and our other fusion companies is that we apply the same standard to them that we do to all of our other electricity investments, which is do we think that this is a scalable way of getting carbon-free dispatchable power at less than $50 per megawatt hour,” he said. “It seems like there’s a very plausible pathway here that this could be a dominant energy source on Earth sometime this century and maybe even in the next decade or two.”

TAE Technologies

It has investors, including Google, Chevron, and Sumitomo, bringing its funding to more than $1.2bn. A prototype plant named Da Vinci device shall be operational by 2030. No dates for commercial plant commissioning are available, and the capacity of the first plant could be 350-500 MW scale.

Helion Energy

In terms of time scale, they are the most ambitious. Helion is setting up its 7th prototype. They have signed a Power Purchase Agreement with Microsoft to supply 50 MW of power in 2028. If Helion can deliver around that period, it shall significantly boost the sector.

General Fusion

General Fusion’s demonstration machine is designed to achieve fusion conditions of over 100 million degrees Celsius by 2025 to achieve breakeven by 2026. It is expected to go into commercial production with two fusion reactors totaling 230 MW in the 2030s. Jeff Bezos is backing this project.

Tokamak Energy

Has over ten years of experience in the design of tokamaks. The first pilot plant is expected in 2033. Dates for the commercial plant are not available; it shall be a 500 MW plant.

The USA has led the development of the industry along with a strong partnership between the UK and the EU.

Fusion Energy has had considerable activity in the last 5-6 years, and private sector investment is dripping in. The science is settled. However, engineering challenges remain. It is a matter of time before we can see small plants like Helion’s go live. If a breakthrough can be seen by 2030, we can expect commercial plants to operate well before 2040. Like every Idea, it seems that the time for Fusion Energy has come. There is cause for considerable optimism.