Funding the Future Survey, Gamechangers, and the US election & trade

WHAT’S NEW THIS MONTH?

We have just shared the findings of our first Funding the Future Survey – a proprietary survey tracking investor sentiment towards venture capital, tech and high-growth sectors. After two tough years, are we seeing a pick-up in VC activity? Perhaps so.

Elsewhere, we explored global ‘gamechangers’ that have shaken the world, considered the impact of the US election on trade, and eyed opportunities across energy transition, digital finance, disruptive tech, consumer and transport.

?So, what were the key talking points? Read on to find out…

Talking Point: Is venture capital investing back in business?

Theme: Disruptive Technology

Venture capital (VC) is back in business. That’s according to our inaugural Funding the Future Survey, at least.

In the survey, Shiva Joon, CFA and the team set out to provide proprietary insights into investor views on VC, private equity (PE) and certain high-growth sectors. A total of 204 market professionals took part, representing more than USD2.3trn in assets, of which the VC/PE market made up USD507bn.

Here’s what they said…

?? Nearly 80% expect a pickup in VC activity over the next 12 months.

?? 82% intend to invest further in AI over the next year.

?? 77% plan to exit companies in the next 12 months.

?? Most investors are deploying their entire portfolio to investments, with 42% holding no cash.

Our thoughts

While venture capital is a significant sector in its own right, its wider influence on public markets is a key reason why we aim to give a window into the world of VC investors. By also asking questions of investors who focus primarily on listed companies, our survey offers a rich perspective on high-growth sectors.

In the survey, we take a deep dive into two important sectors for VC and PE activity – Tech and Healthcare. Clients of HSBC Global Research can read the full report to learn more.

FULL REPORT ?? https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/ZJzlwh9cbZVjlD

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Talking Point: Will the world ever be the same again?

Theme: All Nine Themes

Over the past four years, the global economy has faced a "snow globe" moment – where everything was shaken. But now, we're starting to get a clearer sense of how things are settling, and what they will mean going forward.

James Pomeroy takes a closer look at this conundrum in our latest ‘Gamechangers’ report, where we’ve identified the key changes in our nine key themes that we think will shape the future. Here’s just a few of them:

?? Automation: Tight labour markets have prompted more firms to think about automating processes.

?? Energy Transition: Investment in the low carbon hydrogen space has accelerated post pandemic.

?? Future Cities: Urbanisation in EM continues apace, with key infrastructure lagging.

?? Future Consumer: ESG issues were important before the pandemic but have intensified.

Our thoughts

This isn’t to say that the global macro environment is getting materially better or worse, but that it is changing at an unprecedented pace. Some of these changes could well be very good news – such as rapid technological innovation or an accelerated energy transition. But, at the same time, growing trade tensions and falling birth rates could weigh on global growth.

Clients of HSBC Global Research can take a closer look at how the economy has changed over the past few years, and the role our nine themes have played, by reading the full report.?

FULL REPORT ?? https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/NpQh6dvcbZVjlD

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Talking Point: How will the US election affect trade?

Theme: Trade Flows

Ahead of the US presidential election on 5 November 2024, trade is set to be a key policy issue on both sides of the US political divide. And depending on who wins, US trade policy uncertainty and tensions with partners could either ramp up considerably, or not.

So, could we see an escalation or “more of the same” in the next four years? Shanella Rajanayagam explores the outlook in her latest report.

What have the candidates said about trade?

How might tariffs and trade deals evolve?

Could there be more US industrial subsidies to come?

Our thoughts

Regardless of the election outcome, US trade policy is likely to become more protectionist in the coming four years and uncertainty is set to prevail.?

Clients of HSBC Global Research can read the report to discover Shanella’s answers to 10 key questions on the election and trade.

FULL REPORT ?? https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/bZBPlhbcbZVjlD

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So, there you have it, the main thematic talking points for this month. But there’s still plenty more to discuss. Clients can see the rest of our talking points in our full report below.

FULL REPORT ?? https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/84/PjCSsVvcbZVjlD

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