From SPX, to Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK), to Alibaba and more, here's what you need to know this week.

The Smartkarma Weekly Starter is a newsletter published every Sunday and pulls together the ten top research notes published over the last 7-days from across our platform.

In this week's edition of the Smartkarma Weekly Starter, we get a quick rundown on the top engaged insights for the week.

Start your week off on the right foot with:

SPX 4,100 Bull Turn

SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally to SPX 4,200 where we probe to reverse to short.

• SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally.
• A push back toward SPX 4,200 will put the final touches on the buoyant April recovery cycle toward SPX 4,200/20. There is risk the rally falters below 4,200.
• US 10yr yield hovering above 3.20% lower wedge support per call for an undershoot below 3.35%.?

By Thomas Schroeder in Technical Analysis

Binjiang 3316 HK: >30% Profit Growth, Dividend Yield~6.5%, Cash Now 37% of Market Cap

Binjiang's PE FY23e/24e now is a modest 11.2x FY23e/9.2x FY24e with dividend yield of 5.4%/6.5% FY23e/24e (assuming a 60% payout ratio). The company has 37% of its market capitalization in cash.

• Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) reported a solid earnings growth of 28% YoY, with revenue up 41%. Binjiang has outperformed its peers in the PMC space by a long way.
• Net cash on the balance sheet increased to 37% of the current market capitalization, led by the growth of operating profits and payables.
• The PE FY23e/24e now is a modest 11.2x FY23e/9.2x FY24e with dividend yield of 5.4%/6.5% FY23e/24e (assuming a 60% payout ratio).

By Sameer Taneja in Equity Bottom-Up

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$109) Earnings Preview]: Recovery Is on the Way Amid Weakness in C1Q23

We maintain BUY and our US$109 TP as: 1) Taobao and Tmall sales shows recovery trend; 2) near-term benefit of unveiling its LLM AI; and 3) benefit from the new business unit structure.

• We expect BABA to report C1Q23 (F4Q23) top-line and non-IFRS net income (5.0%) and (5.9%) vs. consensus, respectively,?
• Due to: 1) weak sales of Taobao, Tmall and 1P sales; 2) the on-going move of a key Cloud client;?
• We maintain US$109 TP as: 1) Taobao and Tmall sales shows recovery trend; 2) near-term benefit of unveiling its LLM AI; and 3) benefit from the new business unit structure.

By Shawn Yang in Equity Bottom-Up

No Signs of a Chip Recovery

Has the chip downturn ended?? No.? Is there any sign that it's going to end soon?? Again, no.? This Insight provides concrete data points to explain where we are in the current down cycle.

• Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
• Prices appear to have reached cost.? They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
• The timing of the next shortage is still in question.

By Jim Handy in Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Lian Beng (LBG SP): Ong Family’s Derisory Unconditional Offer at S$0.62

The offer price is unattractive in comparison to peer multiples and precedent transactions. The price is not final. As the family aims to privatise Lian Beng, a bump is likely.

• Lian Beng (LBG SP)/LBG has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Ong family at S$0.62 per share, an 8.8% premium to the undisturbed price (6 April).
• The offer price is unattractive in comparison to peer multiples and precedent transactions. The price is not final. As the family aims to privatise LBG, a bump is likely.?
• The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP) playbook, where Boustead Singapore Limited (BOCS SP) tabled a take-it-or-leave-it derisory 5.6% bump to its low-balled offer.???

By Arun George in Event-Driven

Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023

February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades. When will semi sales bottom out and recover?

• February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades.?
• However, we are beginning to see green shoots of recovery from the likes of Foxconn, Asus and Nanya
• We predict semi sales will trough in Q2 2023 and begin a gradual recovery through H2 2023

By William Keating in Thematic (Sector/Industry)

TSMC March Revenue Falls 10.9% MoM

Q1 2023 revenue of ~US$16.7 billion was at the bottom end of the guided range. Despite the inauspicious start, Q1 revenue still represents sequential growth of 3.6% year on year.

• Q1 2023 revenue of ~US$16.7 billion was at the bottom end of the guided range?
• Despite the inauspicious start, Q1 revenue still represents sequential growth of 3.6% year on year.
• TSMC's earnings commentary on April 20 next will set the stage for how recovery looks across the broader semiconductor industry

By William Keating in Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Inflation Watch: 10 Reasons Why No One Will Talk Inflation in 6 Months from Now

Inflation is already? its limelight as the main concern for central banks for good reasons. No one will talk about inflation in 6 months, if forward looking indicators are right.

• All major forward looking indicators point to disinflation in coming quarters
• Even sticky prices now seem to be fading in various indicators
• No one will talk inflation in six months from now?

By Andreas Steno in Cross Asset Strategy

Macro Strategy - Slow Walking into a Recessionary Credit Crunch

Evidence is gathering that the SVB-fueled banking stress indeed will turn into a recession, but instead of a rapid liquidity driven recession, we are rather slow-walking into a credit crunch.

• The weakest 2-week change in bank lending on record over the course of March
• Banks take extremely conservative decisions on the back of SVB
• If bank lending continues to contract, Real Estate will be the first victim?

By Andreas Steno in Macroeconomics

Last Week in Event SPACE: ANZ/ Suncorp, JCNC, Adani, Khan Bank/HS Holdings, Hong Kong Buybacks

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the week, you might have missed.

• In a dealbreak, ANZ (ANZ AU) will either have enough capital in a downturn or excess capital it could use to buy back stock. If behavioural remedies, SunCorp is cheaper.?
• Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004.
• There is no good reason to be long Adani names, even if GQG is up 25% on his money so far.

By David Blennerhassett in Event-Driven

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