From Setbacks to Breakthroughs: The Unexpected Origins of Global Warming Science

Sometimes, what feels like a setback is actually the start of something transformative. Challenges, disappointments, and unexpected detours can push us to grow in ways we never imagined. But how can we look beyond our immediate challenges and see the opportunities hidden within obstacles?

A Career Setback That Became a Turning Point

I once found myself in such a situation when I was rotated into a newly created department at work. At first, I was excited about the transition, thinking it was a step forward in my career. But after just a few weeks, I realized the harsh reality—this department was where all the most difficult, unpopular, and unresolved work in the organization landed.

Morale was low. The problems we were assigned were either too complex or considered impossible to solve. It felt like being sent to the sidelines, away from the core action. In my previous role, I had been a star player—the striker scoring goals. But now, I was benched, watching from the side, with little opportunity to make an impact.

At first, I was disappointed. But as I sat with my frustration, I asked myself: What could I make of this situation? If this was going to be my reality for the foreseeable future, why not use it as a chance to grow in new ways?

I started engaging with stakeholders from outside the organization, across all walks of the industry—people my peers would probably not have had the time or interest to meet. But I wanted to hear their voices and understand their feedback. What were their real concerns? Why were these issues so difficult to solve? Slowly, I realized that the work, while unpopular, required a skill set that few had. Negotiation. Influence. Strategic engagement. I used this time to sharpen my ability to read people, navigate difficult conversations, and manage resistance.

Beyond work, this unexpected detour even led me to personal growth—I took up playing the ukulele, something I had never considered before. In hindsight, what felt like a career setback turned into one of the most formative periods of my life.

The Scientist Who Saw the Future of Climate Change

In a completely different field, over a century ago, Svante Arrhenius found himself in a situation where perseverance in an overlooked area led to something extraordinary.

Arrhenius was a Swedish scientist, chemist, and physicist who made one of the earliest connections between carbon dioxide and climate change. In 1896, he conducted meticulous calculations to determine how increasing CO? levels in the atmosphere could affect Earth’s temperature. His work became the first to quantify the greenhouse effect, long before climate change was a global concern. At a time when most scientists believed Earth's climate was too vast and stable to be influenced by human activity, Arrhenius’s findings suggested otherwise: he calculated that doubling atmospheric CO? could lead to a 5–6°C rise in global temperatures—a prediction remarkably close to modern climate models.

Ignored at First, Proven Right Decades Later

In The Discovery of Global Warming, Spencer R. Weart highlights how Arrhenius’s work, initially ignored and dismissed, would later prove to be shockingly accurate. Although primitive by today’s standards, it was one of the earliest scientific attempts to quantify how greenhouse gases impact global temperatures. Weart emphasizes that scientific progress is often slow, met with resistance, and only recognized long after the initial discovery.

Yet, behind this groundbreaking research, Arrhenius was grappling with deep personal turmoil. Around the time of his landmark calculations, he had just gone through a painful divorce, losing both his wife and custody of his young son. Instead of succumbing to despair, he threw himself into his work.

The calculations took him months of painstaking pencil work, manually computing how CO? affected temperatures across different latitudes. It was an excruciatingly tedious process, stretching across long nights and lonely days. But his breakthrough wasn’t born out of perfect circumstances—it emerged from struggle, solitude, and relentless determination.

Three Lessons from Setbacks

• Reframe setbacks as opportunities. What seems like a dead end could be a training ground for skills you will need later. Arrhenius used his personal crisis to dive into scientific research. I used my career detour to develop skills that proved invaluable later.
• Engage with people others ignore. Some of the biggest breakthroughs come from conversations outside of our usual circles. Seek out the difficult discussions, the unconventional mentors, and the perspectives that challenge your thinking.
• Embrace the long game. Not every effort will bring immediate results. Arrhenius’s work was ignored for decades before it became foundational. The skills and knowledge you build today—whether negotiation, resilience, or even playing the ukulele—may pay off in ways you never expected.

A Golden Age of Growth

Looking back, what seemed like a career setback became one of my most rewarding experiences. The challenges pushed me to grow in unexpected ways, equipping me with invaluable skills.

Arrhenius’s journey was no different. What began as a personal crisis led him to a discovery that would shape the future of climate science. His work was like a message in a bottle, tossed into the ocean of time, waiting for the world to pick it up. What seemed like a detour or a distraction became a defining moment—not just for him, but for the generations that followed.

Because sometimes, the very moments that feel like obstacles are actually laying the foundation for our greatest breakthroughs.