From Sci-Fi to Suburbia: How Autonomous Ride-Sharing Became the New Normal

Just a few years ago, the discourse around autonomous ride-sharing teetered between excitement and despair. Progress seemed uneven, and high-profile setbacks led many to question whether we’d ever see widespread adoption. Fast forward to today, and the narrative has shifted. Waymo now boasts 100,000 rides per week, Cruise has inked a deal with Uber, and 16 cities in China, alongside 19 automotive OEMs, are full steam ahead in testing and deploying autonomous vehicles. The kicker? In San Francisco, parents are casually using Waymo for school drop-offs. It’s a signal that this once-futuristic technology is rapidly becoming part of the everyday fabric of urban life. As one might say, autonomous ride-sharing has gone from thrilling to boring.

It’s easy to focus on the data—after all, those numbers speak volumes. But for me, it was two personal experiences that drove home the realization of just how ordinary robotaxis have become.

Waymo – 20 | Uber – 1

For the last couple of months, I’ve been walking the hills of San Francisco at an hour when the city is almost asleep. No buses, no crowds—just the occasional airport-bound traveler and, of course, Waymo. And not just one or two; I’ve seen over 20 Waymo taxis cruising the streets during a single walk, some carrying passengers, others quietly gathering data. In contrast, Uber seemed noticeably absent—leaving some passengers stranded and frustrated.

It’s not hard to extrapolate from here. In the near future, Waymo could use data—integrating with flight schedules, for example—to optimize rider pickups. These cars, unlike human drivers, don’t tire and could easily operate 24/7, stopping only to recharge. Surge pricing might become a thing of the past, since it’s used primarily to incentivize human drivers. Instead, pricing would focus solely on balancing consumer demand. Cities could even subsidize these services as a cost-effective alternative to public transportation on less profitable routes. The partnership between Uber and Cruise starts to make more sense when you consider the long-term implications—autonomous ride-sharing could easily make gig economy driving obsolete.

Normalizing the Future

The second insight came from my daughter. Her first Waymo ride was an adventure, but by the fourth, it was just another mode of transport. She’s seven years old and already questioning why anyone would bother driving when a robot can do it for you. For her, the benefits are obvious—more time for face-to-face conversations, no worries about being distracted, less fatigue in traffic, and arriving refreshed.

The normalization of autonomous vehicles raises broader questions. Why own a car if robotaxis become the default? Will families need multiple vehicles, or will they keep one and rely on autonomous fleets for everything else? Could we even see a reduction in traffic congestion, reversing the trend set by ride-sharing apps like Uber and Lyft? And what happens to America's love affair with car ownership? These shifts in behavior could reshape the entire transportation landscape.

The Inevitable Takeover

It’s hard not to be charmed by the Waymo ads, and maybe I’m the ideal target market. But the larger point is that robotaxis seem poised to overtake human-driven services like Uber and Lyft, at least in cities like San Francisco, where the pace of tech adoption is almost an anomaly. The novelty has already worn off for many, and now it’s all about convenience and cost. If the price is right, why would anyone choose a human driver over an autonomous vehicle? These days, the only people snapping pictures of Waymo cars are tourists—the rest of us hardly give them a second glance.

San Francisco might be an outlier, but it’s not hard to imagine a world where autonomous vehicles become ubiquitous in cities within the next five to ten years. Where there’s an Uber today, there could be a robotaxi tomorrow. While accidents will happen—some of them, tragically, fatal—the data suggests that overall, autonomous vehicles are approaching a level of reliability that makes them a routine part of urban life.

The Future Is Boring

The writing is already on the wall. Laws and regulations are evolving to accommodate autonomous vehicles, public perception is shifting from skepticism to acceptance, and costs are coming down—if Baidu’s estimates are to be believed, we’ve already hit the point where robotaxis are financially viable.

In short, autonomous ride-sharing is no longer a futuristic concept that inspires awe or fear. It’s becoming just another mode of transportation—one that will likely transform cities, industries, and even our daily routines. But perhaps the most telling sign of all is this: we’re already bored with it.

Maybe the day isn't too long before we can sit back, relax.... and enjoy the ride.