From Pounds to Naira, 3rd and final part: I'm still in the game

Ten years after my return, I find myself a little more weathered, a little wiser, and a lot more reflective. Living through Nigeria’s economic ride has been like watching a Nollywood drama, you laugh, you cry, and occasionally wonder if it’s all scripted. Yet, through it all, I’m still here, still bullish on Nigeria. Not because I’m naive, but because I’ve seen enough resilience and ingenuity to believe that this country isn’t going under any time soon.

We face some steep hurdles, no doubt, but our green shoots of change are already sprouting. The path to economic redemption won’t be paved with rose petals, but with the right policies, a diversified economy, and the indefatigable Nigerian spirit, I believe brighter days are ahead. The naira will find its feet, inflation will chill out, and those of us who've toughed it out will one day look back and say, “It wasn’t easy, but we made it.”

So, if Part 1 left you feeling like I was waving a red flag, and Part 2 felt like a lecture on financial security, let this part serve as a nudge: I’m still in the game, just like you. And I remain optimistic that the next decade will bring a better, stronger naira and hopefully, fewer economic plot twists. Here’s why and how.??

There will be a shift from oil dependency to tech driven diversification

Let’s face it, Nigeria’s oil dependency has been like relying on that one rich uncle who shows up when he feels like it. For decades, oil has dictated the naira’s fortunes, but the tides are shifting, and this time, they’re powered by tech. The rise of Nigeria’s tech sector is more than just a footnote; it’s quietly becoming the headline story reshaping our economy.

While oil prices yo-yo, Nigeria’s tech ecosystem, led by fintech giants, has been growing at breakneck speed, filling gaps oil can no longer cover.The best part is that the revolution isn’t waiting for permission; young, tech-savvy entrepreneurs are building the future now, attracting foreign investment, creating jobs, and boosting local talent. The result is that the naira will have a new ally. As this tech ecosystem matures, expect more foreign exchange inflows, stronger industries, and a more resilient currency. Finally, we may stop asking, “How’s oil doing?” every time we talk about the naira.

The government’s 2023 reforms were the pain before the gain

Remember that phrase, "no pain, no gain"? Well, in Nigeria’s case, reforms since 2023 have been our own version of economic tough love. These slew of recent reforms were never about making things easy in the short term; they were about creating a transparent, predictable environment for businesses and investors alike.

Sure, the ride’s been bumpy, but this move was essential for long-term stability. By pulling in more serious investors and building trust, we’re laying the foundation for a naira that can hold its ground. The gains aren’t glaring yet, but give it time. As foreign exchange flows back in and investor confidence rebuilds, the naira will catch a break, and inflation will start to behave itself. Sometimes you have to rip the bandage off to let the healing begin.

As one of Nigeria's foremost economists recently put it, the closer we get to equilibrium, the smaller the adjustments that need to be made.

The private sector will have to meet political will

Nigeria’s economic and political elites play a much larger role in the naira’s fate than we give them credit for. For years, there’s been this awkward tension between the private sector’s rational goals and the political class’s, well, often short-sighted manoeuvres. Times are changing, and the private sector is flexing its muscles in ways that may actually shape the naira’s future for the better.

The big players in banking, manufacturing, and other industries have the most to lose when the naira takes a nosedive. Recently, we’ve started to see more collaboration between economic elites and government bodies;think Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and other brain trusts pushing for long-term reforms. I think it’s fair to say that there’s an understanding that economic stability isn’t just a national issue; it’s a survival tactic for both the private and political sectors. If they can continue aligning interests, we might just see real reforms that stabilise the naira and reign in inflation.

Maybe, just maybe, pragmatism is beginning to trump politics.

We should not ignore the unseen influence of global economic cycles on Nigeria’s economy

Nigeria doesn’t exist in an economic vacuum. In fact, global economic cycles often stir our local dramas. Right now, as major economies like the U.S. take a breather after inflationary spikes, global interest rates will soon start to drop. This is more than a cocktail-hour conversation, my fellow street-economists, it could be a game-changer for Nigeria.

Why? Because when rates drop in developed economies, investors start looking for higher yields in riskier markets like ours. If we can create a stable, investor-friendly environment (no small task, I know), we’ll likely see more foreign capital coming in. And that means more foreign exchange to prop up the naira.?

We have to broaden the national cake

Let’s talk about the “national cake” because, in Nigeria, it often feels like a small slice goes to a select few while the rest of us barely catch a taste. The reality is, for any of us to get a larger slice, we need to grow the cake itself, and fast. For the short term, that means boosting oil production, which is still the biggest contributor to our foreign reserves and government revenue. Until our tech, agriculture, and other emerging sectors can fully support the economy, ramping up oil output is essential to keeping our reserves healthy and the naira from further spiralling.

But the conversation doesn’t stop at oil. A sustainable economy can’t thrive on exclusivity. If Nigeria’s economic gains don’t empower everyday Nigerians, then we’re building on shaky ground. Broadening the pie isn’t just about idealism, it’s the key to enduring prosperity and a stronger naira.

To create an economy that doesn’t leave anyone behind, we need policies that invest in the informal sector and support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Imagine local artisans, traders, and small manufacturers not just surviving but thriving, able to contribute fully to our GDP. For this to happen, affordable credit, simplified regulatory processes, and skills training need to be accessible to everyone.

Agriculture also holds vast potential. By investing in agribusiness, we can feed millions and create jobs in rural areas, spreading economic benefits beyond the urban centres. A robust agricultural sector means more than just food security; it’s an engine for equitable economic growth.

Lastly, let’s talk about education. We need an educational system that empowers young Nigerians with skills that are in demand locally and globally. Education and vocational training must be top priorities, not afterthoughts. When everyone has the opportunity to contribute to and benefit from the economy, we strengthen not only the naira but also the social fabric that holds Nigeria together.

The Social contract has to be revised and replaced.

Let’s get philosophical for a second. Nigeria’s greatest asset isn’t its oil wells or mineral deposits, it’s the people. Our human capital is the real treasure. Over the past decade, I’ve seen firsthand how Nigerians,young and old,have thrived, adapted, and innovated, despite facing economic adversity. It’s this untapped potential that makes me cautiously optimistic.

However, there’s a missing piece; the social contract. The relationship between the state and its citizens has been, well, complicated. For years, people have felt like they’ve been left to fend for themselves, carrying the burden of economic mismanagement. However, I believe we’re approaching a turning point. There’s growing pressure from the younger generation for better governance, transparency, and accountability. The political elites have to realise that delivering economic stability isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s essential for their political survival.

At the same time, our youthful population continues to be our secret weapon. The sheer drive and ingenuity coming out of our tech sector, creative industries, and small businesses is staggering. If the government can get its act together and partner with private players to invest in education, infrastructure, and create a conducive environment, Nigeria’s human capital can be the engine that drives sustained economic growth. As that social contract strengthens, the naira will feel the positive ripple effects

In conclusion, navigating Nigeria’s economic landscape over the past decade has been a wild ride, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. With the right blend of reform, innovation, and human capital, I firmly believe that we’re headed for brighter, more stable days.?

If you’re in it for the long haul, like me, take heart, the best is yet to come.