From Polycrisis to Polyopportunity: Why Scenario Planning is Your Best Business Insurance

If the past few weeks have taught us anything, it’s that the world can change - fast! Case in point, we saw a dramatic shift in geopolitical alliances, with the U.S. making a sudden pivot towards Russia, unsettling its long-standing relationships with Western allies. One moment, a meeting between Trump and Zelensky was front-page news; the next, the global chessboard had completely shifted.

Even for those of us expecting this pivot (like me, all the signs were there) the rapidity of the change has been dizzying.

If you felt whiplash watching these events unfold as well, you’re not alone.?

This is why scenario planning is no longer optional—it’s essential.?

In a world where AI is reshaping industries, climate change is disrupting supply chains, and geopolitical shifts happen overnight, leaders who rely on a single, rigid plan will find themselves scrambling when the unexpected happens. Scenario planning is the antidote to this reactive approach.

How Netflix Used Scenario Planning to Reinvent Itself - and How Sony Utterly Failed To Do So

A standout example of scenario planning comes from netflix , which successfully pivoted from a DVD rental business to a global streaming powerhouse.?

In the early 2000s, Netflix was thriving as a DVD-by-mail service, but its leadership saw early signals of disruption: (1) the rise of internet streaming and (2) the risk that studios would stop licensing their content, choosing instead to launch their own streaming platforms. Many industry players ignored these shift - Blockbuster, for example, clung to its store-based model—but Netflix engaged in scenario planning to explore these future risks.

Netflix didn’t just react; it proactively cannibalized its own successful DVD business, launching a streaming service in 2007 and rapidly shifting its focus to online delivery. By 2011, the company recognized another looming challenge: reliance on third-party content. To stay ahead, Netflix pivoted again—investing heavily in original programming like House of Cards in 2013 to secure its place in the industry before studios could pull their content.

Because of this long-term, scenario-based thinking, Netflix not only survived but dominated the streaming era while Blockbuster collapsed. Today, as competitors scramble to catch up, Netflix’s early investment in both streaming and original content continues to pay off.

Netflix’s ability to anticipate industry shifts stands in stark contrast to Sony’s failure to prepare for disruption in the mobile market. While Netflix proactively pivoted from DVDs to streaming and original content, Sony, once a dominant player in personal electronics, failed to foresee the smartphone revolution. Despite pioneering portable music with the Walkman and dominating early mobile phone markets with Sony Ericsson, Sony didn’t anticipate how smartphone - particularly the iPhone - would redefine consumer behavior.

How to Apply Scenario Planning to Your Business

You don’t have to be a global corporation to benefit from scenario planning. Here are three practical steps to get started:

?? Identify Key Risks – What are the biggest unknowns that could impact your industry? These could be economic shifts, regulatory changes, technological breakthroughs, or talent shortages. (Tip: Review the Global Risks Report 2025 from the World Economic Forum)

?? Develop Multiple Scenarios – Instead of planning for one future, map out several potential futures. What happens if AI adoption accelerates? If supply chains become unstable? If consumer preferences shift overnight? (Tip: Use Perplexity or ChatGPT’s Deep Research function to help you develop scenarios)

?? Create Adaptive Strategies* – For each scenario, determine how your business would respond. What investments would you need to make? What risks should you mitigate? How can you build agility into your workforce, operations, and leadership approach? (Tip: Assess each scenario by reviewing the current status, opportunities and challenges to overcome and develop your strategy from there)

The Polycrisis Demands Polyresilience

We’re not living in an era of incremental change—we’re living in an era of seismic shifts. Those who cling to outdated, linear thinking will struggle. Those who embrace flexibility, foresight, and agility will not only survive but thrive.

Scenario planning doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, but it makes your organization resilient in the face of it.?

The question isn’t whether disruption will come. The question is: Are you ready for it? ??

#FutureOfWork #Leadership #AI #ScenarioPlanning

Would you like to discuss how scenario planning can help future-proof your organization? This is part of our Strategic Reinvention services offered in collaboration with Laura Staples , Founder and CEO of Tomorrow Today

Reach out to jump on a quick call with us to pick our brains.

Note: I write for a global audience, so I use American spellings (sigh...I know...)