From Paris to Moscow: Assessing Europe’s Alarming Upsurge in Islamist Terrorism

Friday’s terror attack in Moscow is among the worst in the country’s recent history, leading to at least 133 deaths and over 100 injuries. The attack has been claimed by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK, a Central Asian regional off-shoot), and verified by the United States. This incident heightens concerns over the terror threat in Europe, triggering questions about the likelihood of similar attacks elsewhere on the continent. Overall, the attack shows an alarming trend: the threat of terrorism is rising in Europe, largely fuelled by broader events beyond Europe’s borders.

Who are Islamic State Khorasan Province?

Since losing its territory in Iraq and Syria in 2019, Islamic State has splintered into several regional groups. One such local branch, ISK, hopes to establish an Islamic State in Central Asia, primarily conducting attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Concerningly, ISK has been relentless in increasing international attacks in recent years. The group planned just three attacks outside Afghanistan between March 2018 and March 2022, but over 20 in the last year. These attacks are an important source of notoriety, which drives both recruitment and donations.

The group has also demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks in Europe. Besides the recent Moscow attack, a string of attacks and foiled plots have been reported over the last year (see Figure 1). In one such case, in July 2023 several people were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands for forming an ISK cell. As a demonstration of the increased threat, President Macron recently warned that ISK had attempted to conduct several attacks in France in recent months. After the Moscow attack, the French government elevated the terror threat to its maximum, suggesting an attack was “imminent”.

The largest concern is how ISK’s growing notoriety may inspire an increase in lone-wolf attacks. This is worsened further by the scale of the human costs of Israel’s offensives in Gaza. For some the West is complicit (if not actively allowing) the genocide against Muslims. Following Hamas’s terror attack, the FBI director warned “it is a time to be concerned… we are in a dangerous period”. European Home Affairs Commissioner then warned of growing polarisation and radicalisation, noting there was a “huge risk of terrorist attacks” during the festive period.?

Threats ahead

Despite enhanced security measures and numerous arrests following the spate of attacks from 2014 to 2017, predicting terrorist attacks remains notoriously challenging. This is especially true for attacks carried out by individuals with only loose connections to terrorist organisations. Nonetheless, some targets are more vulnerable than others. Moreover, the nature and magnitude of an attack often depend on the level of organisation behind it. High risk locations include religious sites (particularly Jewish ones), transport hubs, major public venues, popular tourist destinations, markets, as well as on public transport systems and in busy streets or thoroughfares.

The likelihood of a terror attack

It is highly likely that a terror attack will happen at some point in Europe from now until March 2025. Between 2012 and 2022, data from Europol revealed that there were 72 Islamist attacks across the continent, averaging an annual occurrence rate of seven. Most of these incidents were committed by lone actors with bladed weapons, often inspired by Islamic State. The underlying threat is increased further by anger over the war in Gaza, alongside increased inspiration after the Moscow attack.

Attacks by ISK are less likely than lone-wolf attacks, but the group has an determined intent and extensive capability to conduct an attack in Europe. Such an incident would likely have a higher casualty rate, given the levels of organisation and increased capability. The group's likely capabilities include IEDs, small arms, bladed weapons and vehicles. Any such attack would likely attempt to be a “spectacle”, which drives up the group's notoriety.

Security Advice

• Remain vigilant in public spaces, especially in high risk locations like religious sites, transportation hubs and busy markets.
• Stay informed about the current threat levels and heed government warnings and advisories.
• If you are in a country with a high terror threat level, reconsider the use of public transport.
• Remain aware of your surroundings, reconsidering the use of headphones when in public places to remain alert.
• Use a trusted travel risk management provider, preferably one that offers instantaneous incident alerts.
• When in busy venues or public areas, familiarise yourself with possible exit routes and fire exits.
• If caught in an attack, follow the “run-hide-tell” protocol: run to safety if possible, hide if escape isn’t feasible, and tell authorities as soon as it's safe.

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by Gary Abbott , Risk Analyst, NGS

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