From Obama to Trump

On the 20th January 2017, at exactly Noon, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States of America in keeping with Article Two of the Constitution and the 20th Amendment. 

Due to the American affinity for the Electoral College, an archaic institution created by the framers of the constitution to give more balanced representation to the less populated states, Donald Trump was not actually elected on 9th November 2016 as most people assume. He was actually elected by the Electoral College on 19th December. Thus, a month and a day after his election, he was sworn in by the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court. The first man ever not to have held any military and/or political office before his election, he was also the oldest. 

Behind him stood the outgoing chief executive, Barack Obama. At 47 Obama was one of the youngest men elected president and perhaps, along with Jack Kennedy, one of the few that generated quasi-religious fervour amongst the public. Talk of a “New Camelot” and of a new deal between Americans, of all races and creeds, was rampant. 

So much so that after just nine months in office, with almost nothing to show for his time so far, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In doing this, the Nobel Committee made Obama only the fourth US president in history to be graced with the award – along with Theodore Roosevelt (negotiated the end to the Russo-Japanese War, ended the war with Mexico), Woodrow Wilson (helped win WW1) and Jimmy Carter (Camp David Accords). 

Whether deserved or not, the truth is Barack Obama was singled out for greatness. His intelligence, oratorical skills, easy-going attitude, youth and liberalism have made him an African American Jed Bartlett. So how did a presidency that held so much promise give way, in just eight years, to a narcissistic, bigoted, felonious man child? How is it possible that one of the beacons of liberalism handed over the most powerful job in the world to an opportunistic scoundrel?

Undoubtedly, much of the fault lies with “the beacon”.

The truth is Barack Obama was unable to reach the impossibly high expectations set for him by his adoring followers. From press, to foreign leaders, to even Trump himself – everyone was in love with the new tenant of the White House. This would’ve been an impossible task for anybody, and so it proved for Obama.

Sidebar – it is worth mentioning that JFK was one of the most hopeless presidents the US has ever had. Like Obama, his election was followed by hysteria and he was loved and idolised everywhere he went. Especially by women. Unlike Obama, he was a partier and a bon vivant, easily distracted and in constant pain due to his advanced Addison’s Disease and a back injury he sustained whilst serving in the Navy during World War II. As a result, he spent much of his presidency either in someone else’s bed or under the effects of various narcotics to dull the pain. He was famously lounging in his dressing gown in bed at 930am when he was interrupted by aides, the Cuban Missile Crisis had just started. His handling of the crisis and his practically televised assassination are why he has entered the annals of American and world history. Had either not happened it is possible that he would have been a one term president and become a footnote in political history. Let’s not forget he only beat Richard Nixon in 1960 by 100.000 votes, or 0.2% of the vote. End sidebar.

During his 2008 campaign Obama promised to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, close Guantanamo Bay, institute some form of gun control, legalise same sex marriage amongst many other things. When he stepped down in 2017, none of those had happened. He did, however, hunt down Osama bin Laden, institute Obamacare, sign a nuclear deal with Iran (the deal was about nuclear energy, it wasn’t nuclear itself), sign the Paris Agreement on climate change and began thawing relations with Cuba. These last three, incidentally, have all been revoked by his successor. Donald Trump tried to repeal Obamacare, but the great and ailing Senator John McCain blocked it with his now legendary “thumbs down” gesture. John McCain, incidentally the greatest president America never had, would die soon after casting his vote but is still demonised by Trump for standing in his way. 

Not bad, certainly more than I have done in my lifetime, but nowhere near enough for the potential his apostles suggested he had. Certainly, he deserves credit for not ruining the economy (most American presidents manage to do so) but he did not save it from the “Great Recession”, that was the Bush administration in its dying days and the bailouts that saved American jobs and businesses. 

However, Obama was always more popular abroad than at home. Beyond the liberal elites of New York and California, he was loathed in the Deep South, with white non college educated men having a particular dislike of him. No prizes for guessing why. Yes, the pick-up trucks and confederate flags are a giveaway. 

So, after a glitzy failure, the Democrats nominated an even more polarizing figure as their candidate for president. A one term Secretary of State and a 1.5 term senator with a history of misogyny, financial mismanagement and questionable judgement and, oh yes, a woman. Also married to the 42nd POTUS. The only worse choice to Hilary Clinton would’ve been Bernie Sanders – so the Democrats were a little stuck. She was a bad candidate but would not have been a bad president. In fact, given what came later, the world could have done with her steady leadership. I mean, I am pretty sure she wouldn’t have suggested people drink bleach to get rid of COVID-19. But that’s just my opinion.

She managed to turn liberals against her and turn Wisconsin (voted Democrat since 1988), Michigan (1992), Pennsylvania (1992) and Florida (2008) against the Democrats. Now, Clinton won the election. By 3 million votes. In any other country, in any other part of the world, she would’ve been elected. But that pesky Electoral College came back to bite the US (like it did with Bush 43) and she lost the election 304-227 in large part thanks to those four states. 

Had she maintained the Obama coalition; she would’ve won. It is now a question of whether Joe Biden can do so and thus take back the White House for the Democrats. His showing in the South Carolina primary would suggest he is able to do it – November will be interesting.

So how did the US (and the world) end up with Donald Trump in the Oval Office? He managed to bring together a coalition of blue-collar workers, racists, uneducated white men, evangelical Christians, Latino and pro-business conservatives. Not bad for a twice divorced, serial misogynist, billionaire, born-into-wealth, thrice bankrupt white male. Credit where credit is due. He lied, boasted and taunted his way to the nomination, showing not an ounce of grace or decency and then managed to deceive his way into the White House showing media talents that Goebbels would have envied.  

Polls suggest his base is holding firm and he has an assured 33% of the vote. Biden will have to take back the Rust Belt and Florida in order to win in the damned Electoral College and end this nightmare. Not because Trump has been a terrible president – peel away the orange tinted nastiness and, actually, he has been pretty good. He has cut red tape, taxes and fired up the economy. He has also been racist, protectionist, irrational, narcissistic and shown despotic tendencies and cuddles up to the likes of Putin and the “Only Fat North Korean”. The American presidency stands for democracy, freedom, fairness and decency – we cannot afford another four years of eye watering megalomania. The world’s last remaining superpower can and must do better.