From Neglect to Strength: Why the UK Needs a Bold 5% GDP Defence Investment to Win the Hybrid War

Introduction

The decline of the British military since the fall of the Berlin Wall has been compounded by chronic underfunding and a lack of strategic foresight from successive governments. Despite warnings from Eastern European countries and MEPs about Vladimir Putin's ambitions, successive administrations have failed to heed the lessons of history, leaving the UK's defences alarmingly weakened at a critical time. This decline not only affects the UK's ability to protect itself but also hampers its capacity to support NATO and deter hybrid threats effectively.

The Consequences of Neglect

1. Systematic Underfunding:
2. A Weakening Force:
3. Hybrid Warfare Threats:

The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Rethinking Defence

The strategies and tactics of the First, Second, and Third Industrial Revolutions are no longer sufficient. The Fourth Industrial Revolution demands a complete overhaul of military doctrines, focusing on technological superiority, speed, and adaptability:

Modernisation of Strategy:

• Legacy Approaches: Traditional training paradigms must evolve to prepare personnel for multi-domain operations, including cyber, space, and the information environment. A cultural shift is required to embrace innovation, collaboration with the private sector, and continuous learning.

Integration of Emerging Technologies:

• Autonomous Vehicles and Systems: Including real-time battlefield analysis, predictive maintenance of equipment, and autonomous decision-making to outpace adversaries in hybrid and kinetic conflicts.
• Quantum Computing and Cybersecurity: Investing in quantum technology for secure communications and advanced encryption while developing offensive and defensive cyber capabilities to operate effectively in the digital domain.

Strengthening Air Defence: The?Times?recently highlighted significant gaps in the UK’s surface-based air defence (SBAD) systems. NATO's?Capability Target 2025?explicitly calls for urgent investment to protect critical national infrastructure, including nuclear power plants and military bases, from advanced missile threats.As adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran develop hypersonic and intercontinental ballistic missiles, the UK's vulnerability to aerial threats has become a pressing issue.Failure to address these gaps will leave the UK exposed not only to state actors but also to militant groups and non-state actors, as evidenced by threats to Royal Navy warships and overseas bases like Cyprus.

The Case for Immediate Action: 5% GDP Pump Priming

To address these critical gaps and reposition the UK as a credible defence power, a 5% GDP allocation for defence spending is required immediately. This urgent investment will:

1. Plug Existing Gaps:
2. Accelerate Modernisation:
3. Prepare for Hybrid Warfare:
4. Boost Personnel and Training:

A Strategic Transition Plan: From 5% to 3.5% GDP

While 5% GDP is essential for immediate pump priming, the UK should transition to a sustainable defence budget of 3.5% GDP once key gaps are addressed. This phased approach will allow the armed forces to maintain readiness and technological superiority without straining long-term economic stability.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

The UK stands at a critical juncture. Years of neglect have left its military capabilities eroded, its air defences underfunded, and its readiness to respond to hybrid and kinetic threats dangerously diminished. The findings in?The Times, combined with NATO’s?Capability Target 2025, highlight the urgent need for immediate action.

An immediate?5% GDP investment in defence?is not just a necessity; it is an imperative to secure the nation’s future. However, this increased spending?must not come at the expense of essential support for Ukraine. Ukraine is the front line in the global battle against tyranny, standing as a bulwark against Russian aggression. The UK must remain steadfast in its commitment to aid Ukraine’s defence efforts, providing vital financial, military, and logistical support to ensure its sovereignty and protect the democratic values we share.

This dual commitment—to bolstering our national defences while supporting Ukraine—is critical. By aiding Ukraine, we help secure Europe’s eastern flank, reducing the long-term threats to the UK and NATO allies. As Ukraine’s bravery underscores, the battle against tyranny requires unity, resolve, and resources.

The UK MUSTs

To meet these challenges, the UK must:

1. Immediately allocate 5% GDP to defence, focused on modernising our forces, addressing critical air defence vulnerabilities, and preparing for hybrid warfare.
2. Sustain and expand support for Ukraine, recognising its essential role as the front line in protecting Western democracies.
3. Transition to a sustainable 3.5% GDP defence budget?after key national vulnerabilities are addressed, ensuring long-term readiness and technological superiority.

This is not an either/or choice between supporting Ukraine and strengthening the UK’s defences—it is a?both/and necessity. The fight against tyranny requires resilience at home and unwavering support for allies abroad. The time for action is now. Britain must rise to this challenge, safeguard its future, and honour its commitments to freedom and democracy on the global stage.