From LUCA to VUCA to BANI: The Evolutionary Sieve

"Change and innovation in human endeavours follow adaptive evolutionary mechanisms akin to change and innovations in biological nature. Evolutionary mechanisms describe the brutal reality of how hard it is to change and innovate or even survive in nature and culture, not in the narrow sense of the culture of an organisation, but human endeavour broadly. Evolution demonstrates why predicting and planning the future cannot be the basis for strategy."- Peter Compo (from our forthcoming 5-part series)

Change has always shaped life. From the emergence of the Last Universal Common Ancestor (LUCA) billions of years ago to the unpredictable landscape of the VUCA world, we now navigate. Adaptation has been the constant thread weaving through the history of life. But as we move further into the 21st century, a new framework has emerged to describe our reality: BANI—Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible. This week's Thursday Thought explores the journey from LUCA to VUCA and now BANI, emphasising how the need to adapt has remained the only constant. More importantly, the same forces that shaped early life continue to influence our world today.

Change has always been with us. Today's challenge lies in the fact that we have always geared our education and preparation towards a consistent and stable environment. The relative stability of the post-war era, an anomaly in world history, has influenced our expectation for stability. Consequently, our mental and operational muscle has atrophied. However, muscle has memory and it can reinvigorated and rebuilt.

The Dawn of Life: LUCA and the First Great Evolutionary Leap

“Wherever you go in the world, whatever animal, plant, bug or blob you look at, if it is alive, it will use the same dictionary and know the same code. All life is one.” - Matt Ridley

LUCA, the Last Universal Common Ancestor, existed over 3.5 billion years ago, marking the starting point for all life on Earth. Though simple and single-celled, LUCA possessed the genetic blueprint that would give rise to the incredible diversity of life. However, LUCA’s survival was not a result of perfection, but its ability to adapt to its volatile environment.

The renowned biologist Stephen Jay Gould named this period 'the Cambrian explosion,' marking around 550 million years ago when a sudden influx of new, dramatic life forms appeared. After a vast period where only the simplest life forms had existed, a diversity of more complex organisms emerged. These ancient creatures flourished for a while, but as evolution's stringent reality often dictates, many did not endure. The true legacy of this era is not the specific species that prospered and then disappeared, but the evolutionary trajectory that eventually led to the rise of humans. It's a narrative within the broader context of evolution that underscores adaptation, innovation, and, significantly, the role of failure.

The 99.9% Extinction Rate: A Testament to Nature’s Evolutionary Cycle

In the realm of biological evolution, scientists estimate that 99.9% of all species that have ever lived have gone extinct. The principle of natural selection dictates that only the fittest—those most adept at adapting to their environment—survive. In a similar vein, in the business world, companies, brands, and policies that do not adapt to changing conditions often face obsolescence. This constant weeding out of the less adapted ensures that the most fit continue to thrive and evolve, a process as vital in commerce as it is in nature.

These dynamics are equally present in today's world. For example, in Silicon Valley, many startups launch with great potential, but most fail to adapt and ultimately fade away. This reflects the evolutionary principle that only the entities most suited to their environment endure..

Adaptation and The Evolutionary Sieve

“The art of life lies in a constant readjustment to our surroundings." ―?Kakuzo Okakura,?'The Book of Tea.'

Charles Darwin's theory of natural selection, which more precisely pertains to the survival of the most adaptable, is commonly misconstrued as "survival of the fittest." Variation is crucial in any population, be it biological, cultural, or technological. Biological diversity is fueled by genetic mutations, recombination, and sexual reproduction, whereas cultural evolution is propelled by novel ideas and innovations. Variations that improve survival chances are retained and propagated, while those that are disadvantageous are slowly weeded out.

Environmental stressors, such as competition for resources or the threat of disease, exert pressure on populations, driving adaptation. For instance, the increased speed of predators and prey in the Serengeti has evolved because of selection pressures favoring swiftness—the environment has selected for faster organisms.

In the business realm, companies that do not innovate or keep up with market demands eventually lag and fail. Market demands, technological advancements, and societal shifts create adaptation pressures for organisations and their employees.

Organisations—and increasingly, employees under the adaptation pressure of AI—that are the most "fit," capable of resisting or adapting to these stressors, stand a better chance of survival. Here, fitness refers not only to strength or dominance but also to resilience, creativity, and the capacity to evolve with change.

Human brains, however, evolve at a glacial pace. The late Harvard Biologist E. O. Wilson summarised our situation by saying, "We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology." I consider our brain structure as hardware and our mindset as software. Therefore, in a rapidly changing world, we must expedite the software update instead of waiting for the hardware to evolve.

In such a world, education becomes a competitive edge. It entails more than learning; it involves unlearning and relearning, and a readiness to navigate the transitions that come with such a journey. As Eric Hoffer stated, "In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves perfectly equipped for a world that no longer exists."

The VUCA World: Navigating a Disruptive Landscape

As we transitioned into the late 20th century, the world entered a new era of complexity and unpredictability. In 1985, the U.S. Army War College introduced the concept of VUCA—Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity—to describe the chaotic conditions facing military decision-makers at the end of the Cold War. This framework quickly became relevant across various fields, including business and supply chain management.

Volatility in the VUCA sense refers to a state of constant, unpredictable change. Each step in a process—whether in technology, projects, or markets—can vary greatly, making it challenging to predict what’s next. The key is to remain vigilant, as the intensity and direction of the next change could demand a different strategic response.

Uncertainty is at the core of VUCA. It’s not just about lacking information, but about the inherent unpredictability of future events. This uncertainty requires a flexible approach, as certainty is unattainable, and the situation can shift rapidly.

Complexity describes the interconnectedness of systems. In a complex environment, changes in one area can trigger cascading effects across multiple systems. The challenge lies in managing these connections and understanding that even minor adjustments can lead to significant outcomes.

Ambiguity highlights the challenge of interpreting unclear or shifting meanings. As environments change, what once seemed certain can become muddled, requiring a constant reevaluation of assumptions and strategies.

The VUCA framework became a powerful tool for understanding the dynamic and unstable conditions of the modern world. However, as disruptions grew more intense and widespread, the limitations of VUCA became clear, leading to the emergence of the BANI framework to better capture the complexities of our current reality.

BANI: A New Framework for a Fragmented World

As we moved into the third decade of the 21st century, the complexity and unpredictability of the world escalated even further. By 2018, VUCA no longer aptly captured the disruptions and the human experiences of those disruptions. The kinds of challenges we face today—especially clear during the COVID-19 pandemic—highlight the need for a new framework: BANI, which stands for Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible. BANI reflects the realities of our current era more accurately than VUCA ever could. We welcome the creator of that framework. Jamais Cascio is our guest on the episode 542 of The Innovation Show.

Brittle systems appear stable and functional until a sudden, catastrophic event causes them to break down entirely. The pandemic exposed this brittleness in supply chains, democracies, and other systems that, despite their apparent strength, collapsed under pressure. The abrupt, catastrophic nature of these disruptions demands rapid adaptation and resilience.

Anxious captures the pervasive sense of fear and hopelessness felt by many, especially younger generations, who see no good options for the future. This anxiety is more than just uncertainty; it’s a deep-seated dread that there are no viable paths forward. Rising suicide rates and global unrest are stark indicators of this collective anxiety.

Nonlinear describes the disproportionate and often delayed effects of actions, particularly clear in the climate crisis. The concept of hysteresis—where there is a lag between cause and effect—illustrates how minor changes can lead to massive, unpredictable outcomes. This nonlinearity makes it difficult to predict and respond to global challenges effectively, adding to the sense of instability.

Incomprehensible refers not to the inability to understand what is happening, but to why it is happening. The world’s complexity leads to outcomes that defy conventional logic, making it hard to make sense of events. Whether it’s the senselessness of political violence or the unthinkable decisions made by corporations, the incomprehensibility of these actions highlights the growing disconnect between cause and effect.

BANI builds upon VUCA by addressing the deeper, more complex disruptions we face today. It provides a more accurate lens for understanding the chaotic and fragmented world of the 2020s and beyond. As we navigate this new reality, BANI offers a framework to help us understand the nature of these disruptions and develop strategies to build resilience, empathy, adaptability, and inclusiveness in response.

The Evolutionary Sieve of?Early Automobiles

In his book "The Emergent Approach to Strategy" (and forthcoming series on The Innovation show,) Peter Compo shares the evolution of the early automobile industry as a striking parallel to the adaptive processes that have shaped both biological life and modern organisations. Just as life evolved from LUCA to navigate the challenges of the VUCA and BANI worlds, the automobile industry’s development was driven by relentless selection pressures, ultimately determining which innovations would survive and which would fade into history.

During the early 20th century, the U.S. automobile industry was a hub of innovation. From 1900 to 1920, almost 2,000 firms emerged, each presenting their own take on the horseless carriage. However, by the end of this era, over 99% of these enterprises had disappeared, failing to adjust to the market's stringent demands. The initial impetus occurred in 1886 when Karl Benz and Gottlieb Daimler mounted gasoline engines onto horse carriages—Benz's model had three wheels, while Daimler's had four. These pioneering efforts, akin to today's disruptive technologies, garnered substantial investments for their potential to transform transportation by surpassing the constraints of horse-powered travel.

In the following three decades, the industry underwent a rapid diversification of designs, akin to a Cambrian explosion, with engineers exploring a multitude of vehicle architectures and engine types. However, similar to natural selection, not all designs proved sustainable. Market forces served as natural selectors, weeding out the less viable options. The rivalry between steam, electric, and internal combustion engines was fierce. In the end, the water-cooled gasoline engine prevailed as the dominant design, while steam engines vanished because of safety issues and inefficiencies, and electric vehicles faded into obscurity for almost a hundred years, despite their initial success.

This process did not stem from intentional selection, but was instead a byproduct of many market forces that deprived the less successful innovations of the financial support required to endure. Analogous to biological evolution, where unsuitable species are filtered out, the less adaptable designs dwindled, allowing only the most robust to prosper.

The 21st century has seen a thrilling revival of electric and hybrid vehicles, showcasing the dynamic progression of cultural evolution. Sparked by a variety of market forces—from environmental awareness to breakthroughs in battery technology, and shifts in consumer desires—these innovative vehicles have made a comeback, shaking the longstanding reign of gasoline engines. The fossil fuel landscape, once unchallenged, now confronts significant evolutionary pressures, paralleling the ancient corporate behemoths that are scrambling to keep pace with the swift transformations characteristic of our VUCA and BANI realities.

Conclusion

The story of adaptation within the automobile industry serves as a small-scale representation of the broader evolutionary dynamics present in both nature and commerce. It highlights the fact that survival, whether in the realms of biology, technology, or business strategy, depends not on sheer strength or steadfastness, but on the capacity to continuously adjust to a constantly shifting environment.

In a BANI world, the absence of adaptability becomes perilously magnified. Fragile systems may collapse without warning, anxiety can freeze decision-making, abrupt nonlinear shifts can throw off even the most meticulous plans, and baffling results can leave leaders floundering for understanding. Without prioritising resilience, adaptability, and inventive problem-solving, organisations stand the risk of becoming obsolete in a world that requires incessant change.

As LUCA once adapted to its unpredictable habitat billions of years ago, and as unyielding evolutionary forces shaped early automobiles, we, too, must be ever-adapting. In doing so, we do more than just survive—we flourish in an increasingly intricate, divided, and rapidly evolving world.

THANKS FOR READING

This episode was inspired by my studies of several books and episodes of the Innovation Show. This week's episodes with Jamais Cascio on his BANI Framework and the constant adaptation of a successful company Mavie Next with Erich Kruschitz and finally, the forthcoming series on "Emergent Strategy" starting next week with Peter Compo