From Global Jihad to Local Insurgencies: Radical Islamic Jihad in Sub-Saharan Africa

For over a decade, the Islamist insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa has presented persistent challenges. In 2022, there was a notable increase in jihadist violence across the continent, indicating an ongoing and concerning trend.

The data presented underscores the alarming escalation of jihadist activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a 48% increase in fatalities and a 22% surge in violent incidents compared to the previous year. Sub-Saharan Africa now holds the dubious distinction of being the region with the highest annual number of terrorist attacks globally.

A noteworthy trend highlighted is the evolving nature of jihadist insurrections. Rather than maintaining an international focus, these groups have become significantly more localized, entwining themselves with community and ethnic conflicts. This shift is evident in the diminishing international dimension of jihadism in the region, and connections between insurgent groups primarily remain limited to sub-regional collaborations.

The strategic shift towards more localized operations is accompanied by an increased involvement in local conflicts, where jihadist groups often assume a protector role for various communities. Paradoxically, this has made them more resilient and, in some places, more popular than government entities. However, the reliance on local funding, often acquired through coercive means like extortion, has created tensions with the very populations they claim to protect. A prime example is the backlash against al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Sub-Saharan Jihadism: Localised with Diverse Strategies

The geographic concentration of organized violent groups in specific areas, such as the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, Somalia, northern Mozambique, and North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, underscores the regional impact of these insurgencies. The neighboring countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Benin, C?te d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo, bear the brunt of cross-border militant activities, further complicating the security landscape.

The text delves into specific regional dynamics, such as the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, Somalia, Mozambique, and Eastern Congo, shedding light on the dominant jihadist groups and their operational contexts. The challenges faced by the mentioned countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and others, highlight the complex nature of the threats.

The analysis emphasizes that claims of allegiance to global jihadist organizations like al-Qaeda or ISIS often obscure the essentially local nature of these insurgencies. While jihadist groups may declare transnational allegiance, their actual capacity to provide meaningful support is limited. These groups are predominantly self-financed, relying on local fundraising methods, and any collaboration tends to be at the sub-regional level.

The correlation between jihadist activities and local grievances is a key insight. The groups exploit tensions arising from conflicts over natural resources, exacerbated by governance challenges and accelerated by climate change. The pastoralist–agriculturalist divide in the Sahel, intercommunal conflicts in various regions, and ethnic components in conflicts like those in Mozambique are all illustrative of the local dynamics at play.

Jihadism and local grievances

The text underscores the need for improved governance and effective responses by states to local populations' needs and demands as a central strategy in countering jihadist groups. Security forces, perceived as legitimate and enjoying local support, are highlighted as crucial elements in pushing back insurgents, as demonstrated by examples from Mauritania and Niger. The importance of economic support to vulnerable populations as a preventive measure is also stressed, with an acknowledgment that long-term impact requires addressing challenges like geographical constraints and governance issues.

In conclusion, the complex landscape of jihadist insurgencies in Sub-Saharan Africa demands nuanced, region-specific approaches that balance security measures, local development initiatives, and negotiations with communities and armed groups. The experiences of successful countries, such as Niger and Mauritania, serve as valuable lessons, emphasizing the challenges of achieving this balance and the essential role of effective institutions and political leadership within the affected countries. Foreign institutions face significant challenges in influencing these complex processes.