From Glasgow to Cairo
After two weeks of intense negotiations, 197 countries subscribed to the “Glasgow Climate Pact. “To the optimist, the result from the climate change conference known as COP26 meant progress. But skeptics believe that the climate pact was far from meeting the expectations of the scientific community and especially from these vulnerable countries which are already suffering the consequences of climate change and, in some cases, are destined to disappear.
COP 26 set the objective of accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement which aims at stabilizing the increase of global temperature at 1.5oC by the end of the century. To meet such a goal, we must half greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 and net-zero them by 2050. ?Before Glasgow, emission reduction commitments projected an increase of global temperature of 2.7 oC by the end of the century. After the political and binding commitments subscribed at COP26, the Climate Action Tracker estimates that temperature will reach 2.4 oC by the end of the century, still considered catastrophic.
Coal and fossil fuel subsidies were the main points of divergence at Glasgow. The International Energy Agency estimates that to meet the Paris Agreement, 40% of coal-fired power plants operating worldwide will have to stop by 2030 and not a single new plant will have to be built from now on. The International Monetary Fund estimates that fossil fuel subsidies imply $6 trillion dollars in costs a year. This is why Glasgow′s architects were hoping to reach an agreement to phase out of both coal and fossil fuel subsidies by 2030.
However, coal consumer countries blocked all ambitious attempts to bye coal and subsidies first by despising the UK′s “phasing out coal political declaration” in the first week of the COP and then by weakening Glasgow′s Climate Pact which in the end only accepted a mediocre “phasedown of unabated coal.” India was the main opposer to an ambitious commitment on coal, but they were supported by China, South Africa, and, behind the scenes, by other emerging and industrialized coal consumer countries.
China is the main emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and India is the third. Together, they contribute to 35% of the problem. At the same time, they are committed to lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, so they are not willing to give up competitiveness and development in the short term to save the world in the long run. Instead of halving their emissions by 2030, China will increase them by 32% and India by 89%.
领英推荐
The lack of commitment from the Asian giants is partly explained by the lack of delivery on financing pledges from developed countries to support both energy transition and adaptation to increasing climate change impacts in developing countries. While the estimated cost to meet the 1.5oC Paris Agreement goal implies an annual investment of $5 trillion, developed countries have only offered $100,000 billion, and they have not even delivered on it. They also argue that their historical and per-capita emissions are way lower than these of industrialized countries.
At COP 27 in Cairo, emerging and industrialized economies are compelled to land an agreement that reflects a significantly higher ambition to de-carbonize the economy and, at the same time, scale up financial resources to support energy transition and adaptation strategies in developing countries.?
Article originally published at Heleraldo newspaper:
?
Contact the author: [email protected]