From the Forecast: Brazil municipal and Tunisia presidential elections

Factal editors are watching several upcoming elections.

Oct. 6?–?Brazil municipal elections first round??

On?Sunday, millions of Brazilians will begin voting for mayors and councilors in the country’s first round for municipal elections.?

What’s happened so far? More than?459,000 mayors and deputy mayors?will be selected in this year’s municipal elections for more than 5,500 cities across the country, with another 58,000 councilors up for election. The second round, only held in cities with a population larger than 200,000, is set to take place on Oct. 27 in races where no candidate received at least 50 percent of the vote. The battle of left vs. right wing candidates is taking place across regional capitals, most importantly in the country’s economic powerhouse of S?o Paulo,?where there’s a tight?and at times?violent race?between current right-wing mayor Ricardo Nunes and Guilherme Boulos, part of the left-wing Workers’ Party.?

The impact? The political divide between current President Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s ideas are being played out at a municipal level, with S?o Paulo expected to be the most watched battleground come Sunday. Crime and the economy are at the forefront of the campaigns,?and the armed forces have been deployed for the elections, with?at least 455 cases of violence recorded against candidates?throughout the year.

Oct. 6?–?Tunisia presidential elections??

Voters in Tunisia will cast their ballots?Sunday?in a presidential?election marred by protests?and controversy over treatment of candidates.

What’s happened so far Only three candidates will be on the ballot come Sunday, including incumbent President Kais Saied, with businessman candidate?Ayachi Zammel reportedly jailed?for 12 years on election-related charges. The country’s opposition, who have taken to the streets in protests, have derided the race and the treatment of candidates as?a slide back to authoritarian rule. Tunisia’s electoral commission dismissed?court rulings that were meant to reinstate?three candidates. Following the move, Tunisia’s parliament passed a law?to strip the country’s courts of the power to oversee?the Saied-appointed Independent High Authority for Elections, leaving the ballot with three candidates.

The impact? Saied, who came to power in 2019 on an anti-establishment platform and increased his power during a 2021 self-coup, is expected to win another five-year presidential term?as he faces off against two little-known candidates, one of whom has been jailed.

Other voting on the Extended Outlook in the Factal Forecast include Mozambique president and parliamentary elections on October 7, British Columbia on October 19, Japan's parliamentary election on October 27, Uruguay on October 27, and Botswana on October 30.

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