From the Factal Forecast - September 18, 2023

Sept. 18?–?World Court hears Russia’s objections to genocide case brought by Ukraine??

Starting?Monday, the International Court of Justice, or World Court, will hear Russia’s objections in a case concerning last February’s full invasion of Ukraine.?

What’s happened so far

Ukraine?initially filed a case with the World Court?shortly after Russia’s full invasion last February to challenge Moscow’s?justification, which in part invoked an alleged genocide?against Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. In an?initial ruling handed down last March, the World Court ordered Moscow to immediately cease military action in Ukraine.?

The impact

Any World Court decision will have little to no impact on events on the ground in Ukraine, given that the court possesses no enforcement mechanism for rulings. The ruling will come as Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive continues pushing into occupied territory in southern Ukraine. Progress remains slow and costly,?though Ukraine has recently reached?the first major Russian defensive positions along the main counteroffensive thrust seeking to push south to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. U.S. President Biden is also set to?make a decision soon regarding the delivery of long-range ground-launched missiles?to Ukraine, a potentially significant development that would increase Kyiv’s ability to hold Russian targets at risk behind frontlines.

Sept. 18?–?Indian government calls for special session of parliament??

On?Monday, the Indian Parliament will convene for five days in a special session called by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

What’s happened so far

The special session, bringing together the country’s Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha houses of parliament, was announced earlier this month, with no particular agenda disclosed initially. Convening until Friday, Sept. 22., speculation has been rampant over possible announcements from the session, with?opposition parties critiquing?the move for being made without prior consultation or warning. The government later shared that the session will look back at?75 years of parliament. It will begin in the old parliament building and will then be moved to the new building just opposite.

The impact

According to speculation, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be eyeing up various announcements, the most prominent being an official change to the country’s name from “India” to “Bharat” as seen recently at the?G20 summit in New Delhi. Another reason could be to announce Modi’s controversial “One nation, one election” agenda, set to postpone several state elections in order to synchronize with parliamentary elections ahead of 2024.?Calls have been made by opposition leaders?to discuss a variety of other topics, including continued conflict in Manipur, a bill seeking to reserve 33 percent of state assembly and parliament seats for women, and other points.?

Sept. 18?–?Former Mexican FM to announce “national political movement”

Marcelo Ebrard, the former foreign minister of Mexico,?will begin a nationwide tour?on?Monday?amid threats to leave the ruling Morena party.

What’s happened so far

Ebrard, a close ally of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador,?resigned as foreign minister in June?to compete for Morena’s presidential nomination in the 2024 election. He was seen as a?frontrunner along with the former mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum. However, following an internal process, the party?announced Sheinbaum would be the candidate. Ebrard asked for that process to be annulled and reportedly?presented evidence of “irregularities.”?The party is standing behind Sheinbaum and she is now the frontrunner to be the next leader of the country.?

The impact

If?Ebrard creates a new party?to run for president, it could throw a wrench into Morena’s plans. The opposition coalition has?already selected Xóchitl Gálvez, a center-right senator, as its candidate, so adding Ebrard to the race could potentially split the Morena vote. It could also bring unwanted press to Sheinbaum during a time in which she wants to show unity in the party ahead of the campaign. AMLO also could, in an unprecedented move, step in and?campaign against his former foreign minister.

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