From the European Buffers to the Intermarium
George Friedman
Founder and Chairman at Geopolitical Futures, Senior Advisor at Gallup
Russia has been in the process of reclaiming its buffer zones – the areas in its periphery such as the Caucasus, the Baltics, Central Asia and Eastern Europe that give Moscow strategic depth from potential enemies – for some time. But the problem of strategic depth runs both ways. At the end of World War II, the Russians occupied the Baltic states, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and the eastern half of Germany. None of them had been occupied by the Soviet Union before the war. The conquest of this area was the result of defeating Germany and dividing Europe with the West based essentially on the areas each held at the end of the war.
With this, Russia expanded its strategic depth dramatically. The distance it would take from the Fulda Gap to Moscow was so great that a NATO offensive designed to break Russia was impossible. As important, it reduced the strategic depth of the Anglo-Americans to just a few hundred miles. Forward deployed Soviet forces were, for example, 200 miles (320 kilometers) from Hamburg, a major German port. It was accepted that Western Europe could be defended only by massive reinforcement and resupply from the United States. With the western ports under attack or captured, the ability to support forces trying to hold the west would collapse.
The Anglo-Americans, and later NATO, faced a massive Soviet force occupying Eastern Europe and the eastern part of Germany without strategic depth and with fewer troops. The West had air and naval forces, well-trained troops and, most important, nuclear weapons. The U.S. had a massive bomber force that could deliver a nuclear strike to the Soviet Union, but the Soviets had no equivalent ability to strike the United States until much later in the Cold War. Thus, the Soviets’ strategic force and American nuclear bombers canceled each other out.
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Even so, Soviet control of Eastern Europe provided a degree of defense Moscow never had previously. It was a profound problem for the U.S. and NATO. Washington had never intended a nuclear exchange for Europe, and it had what was likely a sufficient air-land capability to break the first wave of a Soviet attack and threaten the next. But for leaders in Western Europe, Eastern Europe was a geographic nightmare that facilitated a Soviet attack on a line from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea.
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George Friedman, I'm watching this unfold and remembering your comments in "The Next 100 Years". You called it!
Managing Director, International Market Analysis Ltd.
3 年https://thehill.com/opinion/international/588536-putins-one-two-punch-european-strategy-to-defeat-america?amp The dual goal of Putin's ultimatum is to emasculate NATO, creating a geo-strategic space to swallow Belarus and possibly Ukraine, while denying the alliance options to oppose Russian imperial rebuilding. Moscow is doing this simultaneously with Beijing's pressure on Taiwan, threatening to open two far-flung fronts against the U.S., in Europe and the Pacific. The balance of power in Europe has shifted due to the alliance members' chronic neglect of military capabilities and Germany's unchecked historic guilt - and appetite for Russian gas. At the same time, Russia's military buildup and domestic shift toward a police state that veteran human rights activist Dr. Lev Ponomarev calls a transition to fascism, made the Kremlin more truculent.
D. Director @ Polish Investment and Trade Agency
3 年Well. Eastern Europe... from 2015 we are occupied by the agents of Russian influence and Western Europe can't help it. Its because of lack of the charismatic leaders. Simple trick was made in Poland - lead to social anomie, to such an extent that people would stop feel that they have influence on anything and they would allow the rulers to do whatever they want. Anomie + propaganda transmitted by the government-seized state television = collapse of the rule of law and democracy. Fortunately, Biden remembers the history and knows what to do. Poland needs western support. EU is late as always...