From Diabetes Control to Weight Loss: The Remarkable Rise of GLP-1s

Overview

Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1)—a vital hormone that stimulates insulin secretion, helps regulate food consumption and stabilizes HbA1c blood sugar levels—has been on the market since its first FDA approval in 2005. However, GLP-1s have emerged as a transformative focus for the global pharmaceutical sector over the past three years, generating substantial interest in healthcare and capital markets.

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Market Performance and Trends

The global GLP-1 agonist market valuation has been estimated at USD 51.7 billion in 2024, with projections of a CAGR exceeding 20% from 2025 to 2030. This projected spike in the GLP-1 market is likely to be the result of increasing risk of diabetes in people with expanded indications beyond diabetes management to include obesity and weight-related health conditions. Additionally, the growth trajectory is driven by improved patient compliance, novel delivery mechanisms (patches, hydrogel, effective oral formulations, etc.), and significant investments in R&D by leading players like Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and AstraZeneca, among others. Lastly, AI and machine learning applications are increasingly being utilized in drug discovery and personalized medicine, enabling tailored treatment strategies for individuals based on genetic, phenotypic, and lifestyle data. These innovations are expected to boost adoption further and diversify use cases.

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Recent Commercial Activities in GLP-1 Market

• In December 2024, Ro partnered with Eli Lilly to provide lower-priced, single-dose vials of Zepbound via LillyDirect’s self-pay pharmacy. Ro’s integration enables clinically eligible patients to access the obesity drug with an on-label prescription from Ro-affiliated providers, offering a convenient and cost-effective delivery option for weight loss treatment.
• In November 2024, Novo Nordisk secured rights to expand metabolic-disease products into other areas, partnering with Ascendis for GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatments and a cardiovascular product. Ascendis will receive up to $285M in payments and $77.5M for additional candidates meeting development, regulatory, and sales milestones.
• In September 2024, Terns Pharmaceuticals announced positive Phase 1 trial results for TERN-601, a once-daily small-molecule therapy for obesity. The 28-day study showed significant, dose-dependent weight loss, with a 4.9% placebo-adjusted mean weight reduction (p<0.0001) at 740 mg QD. Notably, 67% of participants achieved ≥5% baseline weight loss.
• In May 2024, Roche announced positive Phase Ib trial results for its dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, CT-388, in treating obesity and type 2 diabetes. A once-weekly subcutaneous injection of CT-388 demonstrated significant weight loss in healthy obese adults compared to placebo over 24 weeks.

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Future Outlook

As the global healthcare burden of diabetes and obesity continues to rise, the importance of GLP-1-based therapies is only set to grow. Further improvements in combination therapies (GLP-1 with GIP or glucagon agonists), biodegradable implant systems, and increased accessibility in emerging markets will be the key focus areas in the diabetes care sector.

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