From the Desk of the Chairman (Feb 2025)

Just recently in last November I was at Prayag Raj taking a dubki in the holy waters at Sangam at Prayagraj where the Ganga, Yamuna and the mythical Saraswati rivers meet – one of the holiest places as per Hindu mythology. It was part of a small family pilgrimage outing.? If you are brought up in a religiously inclined Hindu family, an unexplainable fondness develops slowly within you, as you grow, for places like Gaya, Banares and Prayagraj.? We had a spiritually elevating experience when we returned home with memories of our trip. One of the reasons why we made this trip just two months or so before the Maha Kumbh was to avoid the mad rush there during Kumbh.? When we entered Uttar Pradesh, we could feel a sense of something epochal about to happen there.? As could be expected, there was as sense of excitement too.? Imagine a crowd of more than 400 million people visiting Prayagraj over a period of forty-five days! ?I was amazed by the mere thought of the staggering number of people intoxicated with spirituality and also the mammoth exercise in managing such a large gathering.? Everywhere in Uttar Pradesh, wherever we went, there was this bottled-up sense of excitement!? Obviously, it is no mean achievement managing such a large gathering. Whenever I read about large crowds in India, I always get an uncanny feeling that we are only a few false steps away from a potential catastrophe.? Catastrophe, it was when the (avoidable) inevitable tragedy happened on the mauni amavasya.? In a stampede that occurred on the riverbank on the holiest of days, we were left mourning the death of more than thirty ordinary people who were trampled upon and died.? Scores of them were injured too. They met this fate because they were ordinary people.? This was a tragedy, I reiterate, that was only waiting to happen. My heart goes out to those hapless people who do not have the privilege or money to obtain special passes from the authorities to take that holy dupki. What shocks me is that as our population grows, this tendency of uncontrolled assemblies of people seems to be growing.? ?This tragedy happened when the holiest of the holy saints and richest of the rich Indians were at the Sangam and taking bath in the same river, albeit in a protected environment with the help of special passes! Is my God so partisan in his approach to his bhakts?? ?Those who die in a stampede get compensation of Rs 25 lakhs each. In a Railway accident these compensation figure go down to a single digit! ?For road accidents – don’t ask. Thus, the largest religious congregation turns out to be the happy hunting ground for practicing discrimination. This year’s religious spectacle has already become one of the most sought-after for the corporate biggies who have assembled at Prayagraj to sell and promote their wares whether the poor pilgrims need it or not.? Promptly after the tragedy a political slugfest has already erupted. The Opposition leaders, without exception, hurting at the kind of adulation heaped on the government, made a beeline to the newspaper offices to criticise the government.? For them it was manna from Prayagraj! When the end comes the ordinary pilgrim is all alone, dead or alive.? As of writing this, after the stampede, the government has decided that the entire area on the banks of the river has been declared a no-vehicle zone till 4th of February. Convoy of ‘VVIP’ bath and escort vehicles have been banned. Only two-wheelers, ambulances, municipal as well as fire department vehicles would be allowed inside. Entry of four-wheelers from districts adjacent to Prayagraj has also been banned.? When such a large gathering was assembling at the banks of the river, did it require the sacrifice of so many lives to know that these restrictions are required for crowd management?

It is not rare for the Supreme Court of India to spring a surprise or two now and then. This month the apex court did exactly that yet again. Some would call it a verbal hair-splitting exercise and some others would attribute it to sheer legal punditry.? Be that may, in either case, it was an occasion for the legal scholars to reevaluate their understanding of the law or more importantly how to approach the legal provisions while interpreting them. A Bench consisting of J C T Ravi Kumar and J Sudhanshu Dhulia delivered an important judgment clarifying the procedure for examining ‘suspicious circumstances’ in testamentary cases.? The case arose from a civil appeal challenging the Division Bench judgment of the Bombay High Court which had reversed a Single Judge’s Order in a testamentary suit.? The Court in its wisdom emphasised the distinction between “valid execution” and “genuineness” of a will, noting that these are separate considerations. The judgment reiterated that ‘a Will is validly executed’ and a ‘Will is genuine’ cannot be said to be the same. If a Will is found not validly executed, in other words, invalid, owing to the failure to follow the prescribed procedures, then there would be no need to look into the question of whether it is shrouded with suspicious circumstances. The Bench went on to add: “even after holding that a Will is genuine, it is within the jurisdiction of the Court to hold that it is not worthy to act upon, as being shrouded with suspicious circumstances when the propounder fails to remove such an allegation.? Consequently, the apex court remanded the matter back to the High Court for fresh consideration. The Court stated that “mere proof of execution does not preclude the examination of suspicious circumstances”.? If you are looking for an example for legal ingenuity, look no further.

There was an interesting article in the “Business Standard” recently trying answer an equally interesting question.? We talk of aged people quite eloquently, how about countries? Indians are happy to talk about our demographic dividends. Have we ever considered the question of how long the dividend is going to last. Shiva Rajora, the author of the article, tries to answer just that question. India still has some more time to benefit from demographic dividend from economic growth though we aging faster than many realise. Despite very fast progress, India is still a low-income country, so it needs to ‘get rich before it gets old’.? Its GDP per capita is just 18% of the World Bank’s high-income threshold today.? The Report is titled “Dependency and Depopulation? Confronting the Consequences of a New Demographic Reality”, the Report noted. The Report goes on to say that the first consequence of India’s demographic shift will be slower economic growth from 1997 to 2023. India’s beneficial demographics added 0.7 percentage points per year to GDP per capita growth.? However, through 2050 that advantage will shrink to just 0.20 percentage points per year.? “The second consequence will be the pressure on public finances and families to support growing number of older people.? Today India has 10 working age persons (15-64) for each senior/aged (65 or older) down from 14 in 1997.? By 2050 there will be just 4.60 workers per senior under current projections and 1.90 by 2100, about the same as Japan today”.? Besides, it also says that India needs to increase the relatively low participation of its citizens in labour markets and sustain faster productivity growth. These are interesting trends and developments when most of us would not be there.

It may be a good idea for us to look at how we as a population have changed as far as our spending habits are concerned.? This information is culled out of the data generated by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPE).? Let us look at the data from 2012 to 20023 to see how our spending patterns have evolved during this period.? Are we spending less on food along the way as we got richer.? According to the well-known Economic principle called the Engel’s Law, as household income increases, the proportion of income spend on food declines even if the absolute amount spent on food rises.? Obviously, we all know this, and it is a natural phenomenon.? This might not be happening in India according to MOSPE data.? Over the past ten years our spending on food had been more or less consistent, at about 38% to 32% whereas in developed countries like the UK or the US, as income rose the proportion of spending on food steadily declined.? One of the reasons for this could be uneven income growth across the population.? With real earnings shrinking, households had to compensate by increasing the number of members working.? The figures reveal this trend – income moved in tandem with increased costs.? Spending by Indians on meat, fish and other seafood have gone up while spending on dairy and poultry products has stayed where they were. Indians are opting for more protein rich foods at the cost of traditional staples like bread, cereals and pulses.? One possible explanation for this trend could be the working of public distribution system in India.? The PDS seems to have reduced the relative spending on staples like cereals by providing them cheap, thereby freeing up budgets for other nutritional priorities.? There has been a significant reduction in spending on sugary foods. Consumption on sugary stuff has declined from 4.95% to 3.05%.? But then, what explains our becoming the diabetic capital of the world?? Here are some more surprise data to take home. Our spending on alcohol and tobacco has remained steady with spending on alcohol going up by just 7% per year and tobacco by 5.5%. It appears that post Covid alcohol may have become more socially acceptable than tobacco. The assumption here is that alcohol consumption at home may have become more acceptable while people avoided tobacco primarily for health reasons.? Smart people, we Indians!? People are spending less on manufactured foods and more on services with more spending on healthcare, education, transport and communication.? If the data is to be accepted as such, people now see spending on services like education and health as investments rather than buying things. There is also a trend that shift in spending habits is resulting in a move towards cleaner and more efficient cooking fuels across households.? Another noticeable feature was that vehicle sales have bounced back.? That is not all.? One remarkable feature in our spending is our willingness to spend more on insurance post Covid.? Overall, it appears that we are not doing that badly, after all.?

Arguably the most talked about, written about and anlyased about person on this planet as of now is a man called Donald Trump. No wonder as he happens to be the President of the most powerful country in the world.? He is today the quintessential example for someone rising from the ashes. He has done everything possible for being criticiced.? ?However, all the people in the room but himself feel that he has been fairly treated by the system. Trump suffers from what is called ‘victim mentality’.? This in turn convinces him to take a position that all others are wrong, and he alone is right.? He displays all symptoms of a man with a persecution complex. On the day of the Presidential elections his plight was either walk to the White House or directly go to the Jailhouse. Donald Trump's abrasive behavior can be attributed to several factors. His unique and often controversial rhetorical style has evolved significantly since 2015 marked by a sharp rise in the use of violent vocabulary. This rhetoric has shaped his political persona and heightened anxiety among his supporters by painting a picture of a nation under siege.? Trump's personality traits also play a role. He is often described as impetuous, quick to anger and boasting a grandiose sense of self. These traits effectively contribute more to his confrontational, abusive and abrasive style, setting him apart even among other populist leaders.? Trump has frequently aired a litany of complaints, feeling under-appreciated and under siege. He has expressed frustration over various issues including those against the media and unfair (in his opinion) legal actions against him by political opponents. His grievances often revolve around perceived injustices and political targeting which he believes have wronged him.? It is a complex mix of personality, rhetorical style and perceived grievances that contribute to Trump's abrasive behavior. He feels aggrieved due to perceived injustices he has faced, such as investigations, political opposition, media criticism and legal challenges. In his view these experiences are unfair targeting, contributing to a narrative of victimisation.? On the other hand, critics argue that his grievances often reflect a tendency to reject accountability and may be rooted in his combative political style. They might see his claims of being aggrieved as a way to rally his base and deflect criticism.? For a man with limited intellectual prowess, he has had a remarkable political journey especially after the reelection.? God Save America.

Thank you.

Venkat R Venkitachalam