From Central Bank Watch to the Global Liquidity Cycle to Merger Arb Mondays, here's what you need to know this week.

From Central Bank Watch to the Global Liquidity Cycle to Merger Arb Mondays, here's what you need to know this week.

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发布日期: 2023年10月29日
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The Smartkarma Weekly Starter is a newsletter published every week and pulls together the ten top research notes published over the last 7-days from across our platform.

In this week's edition of the Smartkarma Weekly Starter, we get a quick rundown on the top engaged insights for the week.

Start your week off on the right foot with:

Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside volatility as opportunities to increase exposure.

  • Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.
  • We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions
  • We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.

By Delphi Digital in Crypto

Sitoy (1023 HK): Deep Value ~50% of Mkt in Cash, 4x PE and 12.5% Dividend Yield

We examine the value proposition of Sitoy Group Holdings (1023 HK) trading at 4x PE with a 12.5 % dividend yield ( assuming a sustainable 50% payout ratio ), with 50% of the market cap in cash.

  • We examine the value proposition of Sitoy Group Holdings (1023 HK) trading at 4x PE with a 12.5 % dividend yield ( assuming a sustainable 50% payout ratio ).
  • The company has 400 mn HKD net cash and real estate worth 690 mn HKD on its balance sheet. This compares favorably with its 840 mn HKD market cap.?
  • The major drawback of investing in the company is its track record, which shows a steadily declining revenue trend and a fluctuating ROCE (currently 11%).?

By Sameer Taneja in Equity Bottom-Up

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety - October 2023

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety for Asia.

By Sameer Taneja in Equity Bottom-Up

Bandhan Bank: Not Yet, Not Yet! (2Q24 Update)

We anticipate the turn-around story of Bandhan Bank to be more drawn out given this result. We retain our Bullish stance, continuing from our Initiation Report last month, but advise more patience.

  • In its recent result, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) did not report the kind of improvement in asset quality in its core Microfinance segment that we were hoping to see.
  • Fresh slippages into overdue accounts did not slow down as anticipated; NPA levels remained elevated; Loan growth is below the target run-rate.
  • We anticipate the recovery to be drawn out, and hence suggest keeping patience. But? we maintain our long-term valuation of Bandhan Bank unchanged at 2.1x FY25e P/BV, implying +56% upside.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA in Equity Bottom-Up

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could...

  • The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.
  • In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.
  • This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.

By Andreas Steno in Macroeconomics

The Global Liquidity Cycle

This report looks at the origins, definitions and outlook for Global Liquidity. It is part primer and part prediction. The next peak in Global Liquidity is farout in late-2025. Liquidity is rebounding

领英推荐

  • The steepening US Treasury yield curve is consistent with a rising Global Liquidity cycle
  • Independent evidence shows that the Global Liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022 at an index of 11.8 (range 0-100)
  • The next Global Liquidity cycle peak is unlikely before September 2025. The investment cycle is in a Rebound investment phase

By Michael J. Howell in Cross Asset Strategy

Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

Happy Sunday from Mallorca and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial. The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal...

  • The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)! It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns.
  • If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.

By Andreas Steno in Macroeconomics

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) - Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (64.9%), Eoflow (38.2%), Hollysys (30.1%), JSR (8.2%), Haitong Intl (7.8%), LPI (7.5%), Orecorp (7.5%), BPLANT (6.9%), Symbio (6.8%), UMW (4.0%).

By Arun George in Event-Driven

[Week 8] Namaste India ?? | Earnings Edition - Part I

Deviating from our usual format due to earnings season, this is a long but must-read for anyone who is keen to track the earnings of Indian Consumer Companies.

  • Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next two weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.
  • We focus on reported earnings, performance against expectations, and the top three highlights that we believe are important from earnings calls for each company that is usually under coverage.
  • Besides the Bullish/Bearish names, we draw attention to the ones that are highlighted as interesting and would be pleased to engage in discussions about any of them.

By Pranav Bhavsar in Equity Bottom-Up

Out of the Box: Central banks are insolvent. How do we deal with it?

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

  • In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
  • This week we look at the insolvent G10 central banks and how to deal with them.
  • It is probably not a newsworthy conclusion to central bank aficionados, but the big question is whether it matters and potentially WHEN it matters.

By Andreas Steno in Macroeconomics

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