From BRICS to Bongo: Unpacking Recent Global Events
The New Global Order
International, independent, and nonprofit think tank of International Affairs.
Covering events from the last days of August to mid-September, this issue of Your monthly briefing will walk you through the BRICS expansion, Gabon’s coup d’etat, alarming findings shared in a UNICEF report, and some of the? headlines that dominated the first days of our current month.?
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BRICS Welcomes Six New Members To Advance The Agenda of The Global South
The BRICS group made a significant announcement, signalling its intent to reshape the global world order and counterbalance the influence of the United States and its allies. The group revealed plans to welcome six new member nations, namely Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, into its fold, with formal admission scheduled for January 1st, 2024.
Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed this expansion as an “historic” development, championing the idea of an enlarged Brics as a means for countries in the global south to amplify their voices in international affairs. However, it's important to note that immediate economic gains for these new members are unlikely, given their existing robust bilateral ties with China. Moreover, the BRICS' New Development Bank remains relatively small in scale.
The true extent of the group's increased global influence remains uncertain. It hinges on the ability of these diverse nations, ranging from powerful autocracies to middle-income and developing democracies, to act cohesively on the world stage. The inclusion of such a mix of countries raises questions about the group's ability to exert substantial influence.
The expansion of the BRICS has sparked significant interest, with more than 40 countries expressing a desire to join, and 23 having submitted applications. This heightened interest has led the G7 countries to intensify their efforts to engage with the Global South, as evidenced by their actions at this year's Hiroshima summit. It appears that both the G7 and Brics are competing for influence in these regions.
Drawing parallels to the eurozone's experience, it is clear that achieving a high level of political and economic integration, akin to a currency union, is a complex and challenging endeavour. The current state of the BRICS is far from attaining such a level of integration. While the BRICS expansion does not pose an immediate political threat to the European Union (EU), it serves as a reminder that the geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant shifts.
Coup in Gabon Ends With More Than 50 Years of Bongo-Family Rule
Military officers led by General Brice Oligui Nguema seized power on August 30, minutes after an announcement that Ali Bongo Ondimba had secured a third term in an election. Army officers announced on national television that they had seized power, stating the election results were voided, borders shut, and several government bodies dissolved. The officers placed Bongo under house arrest and installed Oligui as head of state, ending the Bongo family’s 56-year hold on power. Oligui reported no deaths or injuries.
The coup drew cheering crowds onto the streets of the capital, Libreville, but condemnation from abroad. Indeed, the Gabon coup has been widely criticised, with states not acknowledging Oligui as Gabon’s legitimate leader. The African Union (AU) condemned the coup and suspended Gabon from participating in all the group’s activities “until the restoration of constitutional order”, while the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) urged partners to support a rapid return to constitutional order. Furthermore, the EU, UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and US State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, condemned the coup and expressed concern over how the electoral process was held.
The coup also sparked criticism at home. Gabon’s main opposition members expressed gratitude to the military, but called on it to resume the election process, complete the vote count and grant victory to Bongo’s main challenger in the election. Moreover, Gabon’s main opposition group, Alternance 2023, which claims to be the rightful winner of the election, urged the international community on Friday to encourage the generals to hand power back to civilians.
Oligui has repeated his promise to create more democratic institutions and organise “free, transparent, credible and peaceful elections”, without specifying when they would take place but saying that a new constitution must first be adopted by referendum. However, Oligui stated in a televised address that “Our aim is to move as quickly as possible, quickly but surely. Moving as quickly as possible doesn’t mean organising elections in a rush where we’ll end up with the same mistakes, where the same people will continue in power, and it all comes back to the same thing”.
The junta will temporarily restore the country’s constitutional court, resume domestic flights and establish the “institutions of the transition,” a spokesperson stated. It also pledged to continue public services in the country, and to follow the country’s commitments domestically and internationally. Since the overthrow, Oligui has held hours of high-profile discussions with business and religious leaders, unions, political parties, NGOs, diplomats, and journalists. Much, however, remains uncertain, with Bongo under house arrest, his son arrested, and the government ostensibly shut down.?
The takeover in Gabon follows coups in Guinea, Chad, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso since 2020. The coups have erased democratic gains in a region where insecurity and widespread poverty have weakened elected governments, worrying international powers with strategic interests in the region. Corruption, mismanagement, and poverty political analysts have signalled as being the conditions that created a fertile soil for the latest wave of coups in Africa, with many young Africans disillusioned with allegedly corrupt leaders and ready for radical change.
Children In Africa Are Particularly Vulnerable To Climate Change, UNICEF Report Finds
A recent assessment of 49 African countries reveals alarming findings about the vulnerability of children to the impacts of climate change. The report determined that children in 48 of these nations are at high or extremely high risk due to their exposure and susceptibility to climate-related events like cyclones and heatwaves, as well as their limited access to essential services. Particularly, children in the Central African Republic, Chad, Nigeria, Guinea, Somalia, and Guinea-Bissau are identified as the most vulnerable. Nevertheless, only 2.4% of global climate funding is directed towards children.?
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UNICEF Deputy Director for the Eastern and Southern African region, Lieke van de Wiel, emphasised the urgent need to redirect funding towards children to help them cope with the lifelong disruptions caused by climate change. Indeed, the report highlighted the critical role children play in achieving long-term climate resilience and sustainability, underscoring their significance in climate solutions, including policy development and financial support.
The release of the report coincides with the African Climate Summit, taking place in Nairobi, Kenya. The summit, thus, represents an opportunity for African leaders to advocate for increased investment in climate action, recognizing the escalating impacts of climate change on human mobility in the continent. Last year, over 7.5 million internal disaster displacements were recorded in Africa, and a 2021 report warned that without effective and sustained climate action, up to 105 million people in Africa could become internal migrants by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a climate migration era, stated IOM Director General-Elect Amy Pope.?
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights Expresses Concern Over The Suspension of Guatemala’s Semilla Party Legal Status
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) criticised the suspension of the Semilla party's legal status in Guatemala, following the official announcement of election results where Semilla party candidates were elected as president and vice-president. The IACHR urged Guatemala in a press release, published on August 30, to “respect the results of the recent general election as the highest possible expression of popular sovereignty, and to strictly adhere to the principles of representative democracy and human rights”.
In the press release, the Commission expressed concern that the suspension of Semilla's legal status violated the temporary protection previously granted to the party by Guatemala's Constitutional Court. Moreover, the IACHR stated that the suspension appears to be an attempt to prevent the president-elect, vice-president-elect, and other elected officials from taking office. The commission signalled that these actions are occurring amidst a backdrop of unlawful actions and interference in the electoral process, exploiting the justice system's lack of independence.
The IACHR reminded Guatemala of its obligations under the American Convention on Human Rights and the Inter-American Democratic Charter to respect free and fair elections. The Commission also noted that the Guatemalan President has acknowledged the election results and expressed readiness for an orderly transition of power. The IACHR, thus, urged Guatemala to cease undermining the credibility of the elections and take concrete steps to implement the President's commitment effectively.
India’s Opposition Coalition, INDIA, Reunites For The Third Time
India's opposition parties united in their bid to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 national elections. This coalition, named the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), aims to contest the elections together and avoid splitting votes, with the goal of fielding one candidate against the BJP in each voting district. The opposition parties are focusing their campaign on issues such as economic performance, rising unemployment, and domestic challenges, including growing anti-Muslim sentiment.
The coalition recently concluded a two-day meeting in Mumbai and passed several resolutions, including the formation of committees for campaign coordination, social media, media engagement, and research. They also pledged to organise public rallies across the country to address public concerns.?
However, analysts note that unseating Modi will be a formidable task, given his popularity and the BJP's substantial control over Indian states and Parliament. Moreover, the Modi government has faced allegations of using federal agencies to target opposition leaders, leading to defections to the BJP and raising questions about political manipulation. Despite the challenges, the opposition parties are determined to present a united front in the upcoming elections.
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