From Biplanes to Bots: The Historic Path of Human Innovation and AI
All too often we are too busy looking down to realize we forget to look back at where we have come from to see the future.
I believe it's crucial to contextualize artificial intelligence within its proper historical framework. Consider this illustrative example—though numerous others could also be employed:
"Imagine it's December 17, 1903. Alongside your brother, you've just transformed a radical idea into reality: humans can fly!"
The Wright brothers' early airplane was powered by a modest 12-horsepower gasoline engine driving two pusher propellers. It utilized 'wing warping' for control, making it relatively unstable and challenging to pilot. They conducted four flights near Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, covering about 4 miles. On its fourth and final flight, the aircraft reached 852 feet before sustaining damage upon landing. It was subsequently destroyed by powerful gusts that overturned it.
Consider this: could they have envisioned that in 1969, humanity would set foot on the moon?
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This is analogous to our current standing with AI. We are astounded by what has been achieved, yet it is imperative to recognize that, in terms of development, we are at the stage of 1903. The future of AI, whether auspicious or ominous, remains uncertain. Yet, the fact that we've managed to 'fly' 852 feet in AI terms is itself a reason for some to celebrate.
Regardless of whether you are 17 or 70, reflect on the technological transformations you've witnessed thus far. And remember, the AI technology we observe or experience now is the worst it will ever be.
We stand at a pivotal moment in history, where computational speed and efficiency are escalating rapidly, and costs are diminishing just as swiftly. Artificial intelligence is the catalyst propelling this revolution, and you face a decision:
Lead, follow, or step aside. Put another way, you can either adopt, learn, or cling to your Radio Shack TRS-80 and 1200 baud modem and retreat.
Owner at Reston Appied Technology
10 个月Lee: It's not necessary to evangelize for the progress of AI. Those who don't step aside will become stains on the pavement of human evolution because there is just too much money at stake for it to be otherwise. Some of the negative side-effects of its proliferation (e.g. dilution of control of intellectual property, diminished value of original thought) will certainly occur. Governments will attempt to mitigate them, just as they are trying to do today with social media, have been for decades with nuclear weapons, and centuries with firearms. But genies don't hop back into bottles by an act of congress or an international treaty. There will be tremendous value added by the automated processing of vast data sets coupled with intelligent reasoning models. Humans will benefit from the technology in ways that we can't even think of today. But those who embrace the technology without careful thought to the dangers of its abuse do so at their own peril. LLMs do not know what is true. They just know how to summarize data in a very believable way. The datasets are (necessarily) gigantic and often opaque. The algorithms are complex. Abuse is possible and easy to obfuscate. I will watch with interest as I step aside and observe. -Rick