From 25G PON to 50G PON, and from WiFi to 5G, which one is actually more competitive?

Lightreading has recently published two articles discussing the comparison of technical standards. One is about 25G PON and 50G PON, and the other is about WiFi and 5G networks. The choice of which technical system to adopt is, at a deeper level, an economic issue.

The 25G PON led by Nokia and the 50G PON led by Huawei have been hot topics in the access network field in recent years. It seems that with the 10G fiber-to-the-home strategy of Chinese operators, Huawei's 50G PON is likely to win this competition. However, from the perspective of real applications, neither has found a real market or killer application yet.

An article by Lightreading quotes Vanhastel, the head of innovation for Nokia's fixed network business, as saying: "I expect we will see operators skip 25G PON and move directly to 50G PON, and there may even be cases where they move directly to 100G." "Maybe they skip 50G, or maybe they skip 100G and move directly to 200G. We have no objection to any of these scenarios." In his view, it's not a matter of which standard will prevail now; rather, operators and their customers themselves don't have a clear idea either.

Compared with the technologies of its competitors, Nokia's stance is that 25G PON is at least more economical. "Delaying expenditure is always an advantage on the balance sheet," Vanhastel said. The underlying principle is that operators can reuse most of the technology they would have rolled out for XGS PON (the 10G step between the original GPON standard and 25G PON) and avoid completely updating their optical line terminals (OLTs). "In fact, instead of having to buy new OLTs today, you can wait for 10 years, which has a significant impact on the overall business case."

Nokia's fixed network business has performed well in recent years. Currently, approximately 1.8 to 2 million OLT ports have been deployed in the existing network, serving around 100 million households globally. Vanhastel said that these ports are "ready to be upgraded to 25G". Essentially, this means that for telecom companies using these ports, they only need to insert new optical modules and distribute new optical network terminals (ONTs) to customers who pay for 25G PON services. He also said, "If you deploy XGS now, the evolution to 25G PON is relatively easy, while the evolution to 50G PON will require new line cards."

In Vanhastel's view, operators introduce a new technology every 7 to 10 years, and each generation of technology will be utilized to the fullest before being upgraded. The current problem is that the bandwidth demand of ordinary residential users is obviously sufficient at present, and upgrading to 50G PON all at once is too big a leap. In contrast, as a person in charge of technical innovation, he is more interested in the technical system dispute of 100G PON after 50G, that is, whether it is IMDD or coherent. Although some people are promoting coherent PON. CableLabs, an organization engaged in connection research and development, has even launched a CPON (Coherent Passive Optical Network) program under the title of "Getting Ready for 100G". For Vanhastel, this would be an unnecessarily expensive move. "Of course, it costs more. We believe that we can still achieve 100G using this IMDD technology," he said. "We know from bitter experience that it all comes down to cost."

If which PON technology to choose is not yet a concern for ordinary consumers at present, then choosing what kind of wireless network service is directly relevant to most consumers, especially at the scene of the Super Bowl, which is known as the "American Spring Festival Gala" in the United States. Another article by Lightreading states that during the Super Bowl games in the past two years, the American wireless carrier Verizon has encouraged users to turn off their Wi-Fi and directly use its 5G network. During Super Bowl LVII in Arizona in 2023, the Wi-Fi network malfunctioned, which made service providers rethink giving priority to 5G over Wi-Fi. The shift from Wi-Fi coincides with Verizon's national investment in its 5G network in 2023, including the addition of C-band spectrum.

The three major mobile carriers in the United States are all increasing their utilization of 5G. Verizon operates an extensive 5G network at the Superdome stadium used for this year's Super Bowl. Verizon has installed 509 ultra-wideband 5G antennas, 155 dedicated C-band antennas, and 42 MatSing antennas at the venue. At the same time, AT&T has installed more than 250 MatSing antennas in the Superdome and in its 5G+ millimeter-wave network, including 34 high-power radios covering the seating area of the bowl and 255 low-power radios targeting the backstage and lobby areas. AT&T's network is the neutral host shared network of the venue. T-Mobile has also upgraded the indoor DAS (Distributed Antenna System) of the Superdome. The company has upgraded the macro sites in the nearby areas to connect with tailgating fans and has installed MatSing's millimeter-wave antennas on the rafters of the Superdome.

As a return on the huge investment made by operators, more users are also increasing their usage of 5G data. Verizon said that the spectators at the Caesars Superdome stadium used 38.1TB of data both inside and outside the stadium, and about 53% of the 65,719 spectators used Verizon's network. AT&T said that its upgraded DAS network handled nearly 29TB of data, setting a venue record.

The shift from Wi-Fi to 5G is not only a technical issue but also an economic one. The fact that more users are giving up the traditionally bandwidth-advantaged and nearly free Wi-Fi and turning to 5G cellular networks is undoubtedly a milestone achievement in the deployment of 5G networks. This indicates that 5G technology is mature enough, and it is time to consider the technical standards for the next generation of mobile communication technology.

The competition between 25G PON and 50G PON, as well as between Wi-Fi and 5G, may seem like a battle of technologies, but ultimately it comes down to the choice of end-users. No matter how advanced a technology is, it will be useless if it cannot satisfy customers economically.

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