Friends without benefits

Hello from somewhere in Galicia, Spain,

Last week began with Western newspapers optimistically heralding the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

Why? Apparently, Ukrainian strikes in Crimea, the delivery of American missile systems, and Vladimir Putin saying he was ready to negotiate a ceasefire were all good omens.

We are, sadly, not so optimistic.

It is hard to see why Moscow would want a truce – its forces have momentum as Kyiv struggles to replace soldiers and munitions.

However, the alleged strike on a Voronezh early-warning radar in Krasnodar could be a clue. Ukrainian drones apparently destroyed two buildings associated with the system, though not the radar itself, which Russia uses to detect ballistic missiles. A hit on the radar could risk enlivening Russia’s nuclear doctrine.

That may yet be a bridge too far. The risk of a hit on another site like the Armavir Radar Station would almost certainly be unacceptable. While Ukraine may be in an existential crisis, few others will want to risk nuclear war.

On quite another note, the week ended with Donald Trump being found guilty on 34 charges, after a New York jury considered claims he broke campaign law by falsifying documents to cover payments to a porn star.?

Naturally, much ink has already been spilled on this historic event.

So, I will just leave you with our one-line takeaway: What doesn’t kill Trump makes him stronger. Just as we would caution against forecasting the end of the Ukraine war, we would also not recommend reading Trump’s demise into his conviction.?

That said, Trump’s fate will, of course, affect the fate of nations.

Not least because he and Joe Biden and Donald Trump, at least in terms of foreign policy, have very different attitudes towards alliances.

And that — the strengths and vulnerabilities of the American web of alliances built up since WW2 — was the subject of this week’s long-form essay by Chief Strategist Michael Feller .

If you missed it over the weekend, I would highly recommend taking a decent lunch break and having a read this week.

Cheers

Damien