Friday Risk Watch: September 22, 2023

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We'll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We're Watching:?

Tropical Storm Conditions to Impact the East Coast This Weekend:?The National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially designated a cyclone off the Carolina Coast as Tropical Storm Ophelia Friday afternoon. Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are active in parts of the Carolinas and the coastal Mid-Atlantic.

• Coastal regions between North Carolina and the Delmarva Peninsula are expected to experience the brunt of the impacts. Areas along the lower Chesapeake Bay could observe a two to five-foot rise in water levels, with peak?surge impacts?likely to occur at high tide on Saturday. Moderate to localized major coastal storm surge flooding could close several low-lying roadways.?
• Winds may exceed tropical storm strength between Friday evening and Saturday along the Carolina coast, with gusts approaching 55-65 mph.?
• A swath of?heavy rainfall totals,?locally exceeding five inches, will cover eastern portions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the immediate lower New England coast. Inland wind gusts up to 35 mph (locally higher) could lead to sporadic power outages, primarily east of I-95.?
• Expect the cyclone to dissipate near or off the lower New England coast by Sunday or Monday due to an approaching cold front.?

Delayed Withdrawal of the Indian Southwest Monsoon Heading Into October:?According to the?India Meteorological Department (IMD), current weather systems across the country show no signs of an imminent retreat of the monsoon, which typically begins its withdrawal by September 17.?

• In New Delhi, monsoon withdrawal typically occurs around September 25, but this year, it's likely to happen between September 28 and October 3. In Northeast India, the monsoon withdrawal is expected around mid-October, five to ten days later than usual.
• The delayed exit and continued monsoon rainfall are good news for farmers, who experienced the?driest August in over a century,?which impacted summer crops.?
• Throughout the weekend, areas throughout Northeast India—including Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Northwest Odisha, and the Northeast Himalayas—will see a resurgence of heavy downpours. Daily rain totals could exceed two inches.

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Marches Taking Over French Cities on Saturday:?Expect traffic disruptions in urban areas across France this Saturday, September 23, amid protests demanding justice for?Nahel M?and other victims of police shootings. Over 150 trade unions, political groups, social justice collectives, and other organizations with a wide range of affiliations are calling for nationwide action to end what they see as widespread police violence and systemic racism.?

• Security officials expect between 21,000 and 26,000 participants in Paris, where marchers will gather at Gare du Nord. Two other marches are scheduled in the suburbs of Montreuil and Alfortville. In all, nearly 100 cities will see demonstrations on Saturday.?
• In a press release from a website dedicated to Saturday's marches, organizers called for funds to restore public services in working-class neighborhoods and advocated for police reforms. These reforms include the repeal of a?2017 law?that gave authorities greater discretion in using firearms.?
• The nationwide actions follow a summer of riots and unrest sparked by the death of Nahel M, a teenager who police?shot and killed?during a traffic stop in the Paris suburb of Nanterre in June. While it is unlikely that Saturday's marches will lead to the widespread?vandalism and clashes with police?that France experienced immediately following Nahel's death, large crowds will likely cause disruptions along march routes.?

Fallout From Canada's Assassination Accusation:?Relations between Canada and India are rapidly deteriorating following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's?accusation?that Indian security services assassinated Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an activist for a separate Sikh state, on Canadian soil. The Indian government, who considered Nijjar a terrorist, has denied the allegations, but the row has sparked calls for demonstrations and a series of escalating diplomatic reprisals.??

• Sikhs for Justice calls for a shutdown of Indian consulates in Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver on Monday, September 25. In an interview with Canadian media, a board member of the World Sikh Organization in Canada said that tensions within the community are high and demonstrations may occur outside of the consulates ahead of next week's planned protest. Counter-demonstrations by those who support the Indian government are also possible.?
• Canada has reissued its travel advisory for India, recommending that people avoid traveling to the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Shortly after, India's Ministry of External Affairs?warned?Indians living in Canada of "growing anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes."??
• India has temporarily?stopped issuing visas?to Canadian citizens due to "security threats." Canada, meanwhile, has also moved to reduce its diplomatic personnel in India after several reportedly received death threats on social media.??

Nigerian Trade Union Federation Inches Closer to Strike:?The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), an umbrella organization for several of the country's various labor unions and associations, confirmed Friday that it intends to hold an indefinite nationwide strike. Previous such actions have led to widespread disruptions across the public and private sectors.?

• The NLC went on strike in August after removing a popular fuel subsidy but?suspended?the action to enter negotiations with the government. Talks progressed slowly in the ensuing weeks, leading the NLC to issue an?ultimatum?to the Tinubu administration. Union leadership gave the federal government until Thursday, September 21, to meet their varying demands.?
• Before the deadline, the NLC staged a "warning strike" on September 5-6 that resulted in widespread disruptions, including nationwide?bank closures?and?interruptions?to power supply in some sections of the country.??
• NLC leadership did not give a start date for its action, but a spokesperson told national media on Friday that a strike could begin "any moment from now." A strike would bring significant disruptions due to widespread work stoppages and street demonstrations.??

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