Friday Risk Watch: September 20, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Possible Next week: More than midway through the Atlantic hurricane season, total activity has trended below the historical average with a relatively benign start to mid-September. However, latest forecast data signals an elevated threat of tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico next week.?

• The National Hurricane Center highlighted the Northwest Caribbean Sea as an area with a medium threat of tropical storm activity for the next seven days. A broad area of disturbed weather will likely form late this weekend or early next week.?
• Friday model data supports the formation of a well-organized storm over or near the Yucatan Peninsula between Monday and Wednesday, followed by a high probability of a tropical storm or hurricane moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico between September 25 and 26. While the potential threat to the U.S. is increasing, it's too early to predict details such as the forecast error cone or intensity.?
• Meanwhile, widespread heavy rain is forecast throughout El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, Southeast Mexico, Western Cuba, and surrounding areas this weekend through the middle of next week, resulting in elevated flood risk.??
• Residents and travelers across the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor weather updates.??

Multiple Countries in Asia-Pacific Face Weather Emergencies: In Asia-Pacific, multiple weather disasters have generated significant loss of life and billions of dollars in damage across several nations. Multiple previously-affected areas are again at risk of severe weather in the days ahead.?

• Earlier this month, Super Typhoon Yagi caused widespread flooding and loss of life as it advanced westward across Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Myanmar, and Northern Thailand were hit especially hard by flooding, with at least 641 people killed.??
• As of Friday, the remnants of Tropical Depression Six are taking a similar path across Central Vietnam and Northern Thailand. This feature, along with another weather system, may yield a dangerous and prolonged wet spell across flood-ravaged areas through the weekend.????
• In Northeast Asia, Shanghai was hit by its strongest typhoon in over 70 years earlier this week. On Thursday, a second, albeit smaller tropical storm passed directly over the metro. Storm remnants will merge with a mid-latitude system over portions of South Korea and Western Japan over the weekend, increasing heavy rain and flood risk.??

Multiple International Wildfire Incidents in Progress: South America and Northern Portugal are grappling with fire emergencies. Areas of severe drought, gusty winds, and hundreds of fire starts have resulted in widespread poor air quality, evacuations, and state of emergency declarations.?

• The northern two-thirds of South America have endured consecutive weeks of above-average temperatures. Fire danger has been worsened by three months of below-average precipitation, especially across the Amazon Region.??
• In Peru, 222 wildfires have affected various areas of the country since September 13. On Wednesday, a state of emergency was declared in Amazonas, San Martin, and Ucayali regions.??
• Ecuador is experiencing its worst drought in 61 years, leading to reduced hydroelectric power generation and water supply disruptions. Power and water rationing measures have been adopted nationwide, with overnight curfews and daily outages scheduled from 10 pm to 6 am from September 23 to 26.
• Two-thirds of Brazil is shrouded in wildfire smoke as millions of hectares have burned in recent weeks. While fires have been most widespread within the Amazon, dense smoke and poor air quality have led to suspended classes as far east as the capital city, Brasilia. Substantial improvements are unlikely in the foreseeable future, with climate models indicating below-average rain across much of the country through the end of the year.??
• In Portugal, over 121,000 hectares (nearly 300,000 acres) have burned since Sunday, with the north and central regions the most affected. Over 5,000 firefighters are battling at least eight major fires. Critical areas include Aveiro, Viseu D?o Laf?es, Alto Tamega e Barroso, and Porto. The death toll stands at five, and around 160 people have been injured. Reduced fire danger is forecast over the weekend as the national weather pattern turns cooler and wetter.?

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Suspected Israeli Attack Targeting Hezbollah Radios, Pagers Raises Middle East Tensions: Tensions along the Israeli-Lebanon border are rising, leading to renewed concerns of all-out war. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Israel allegedly launched a surprise attack on Hezbollah, detonating covertly installed explosives in communication devices, killing at least 37 and injuring around 3,000. In response, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said that the attack “crossed all red lines” and vowed retribution. Earlier today, Israel launched what it called a “targeted strike” on Beirut, killing at least 12 people, including Hezbollah operations commander Ibrahim Aqil.

• Israel continues to shift military resources north as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says that the conflict is entering a “new phase.” Israel's security cabinet voted to make returning evacuated residents to their homes along the Lebanon border a war objective, which the country's leadership reportedly believes cannot happen without military action. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said such a task is unachievable until fighting stops in Gaza.??
• Meanwhile, global protests around the conflict will continue this weekend. Expect notable demonstrations in New York City (Brooklyn Museum at 5:30 pm on Friday), Toronto (Union Station at 2 pm on Saturday), Florence (Piazza Gino Bartali at 4 pm on Saturday), Copenhagen (March to Vesterbrogade 2 pm). Large protests will also continue in Israel, particularly outside Tel Aviv's military headquarters.
• Looking ahead, protests are expected on Thursday in New York City against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's appearance at the United Nations General Assembly. Activists are also preparing for the weekend of October 5 to mark the first anniversary of the conflict in Gaza.??

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Bolivia’s Capital Braces for Thousands of Protesters: On Tuesday, thousands of supporters of former president Evo Morales set out from Caracollo to La Paz on a "March to Save Bolivia.” President Luis Arce, a former ally turned rival of Morales, called the action a “death march” and claims that Morales is seeking to overthrow him and “destroy democracy in Bolivia.”?(Note: Some of the following links are in Spanish.)

• The march has already seen clashes as marchers encountered counterdemonstrators after leaving Caracollo. In the ensuing violence, at least 17 people were wounded, including three police officers. Roads along the march route and elsewhere in the country have been blocked, exacerbating preexisting fuel shortages. Such blockades are expected to continue indefinitely.?
• The march is expected to conclude in the capital at the government headquarters on Monday, September 23. Supporters of President Arce plan to mobilize to prevent the marchers from entering La Paz. Marchers warned of the “fall of the government” if they face any intervention by armed forces upon reaching the capital.?

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France to Face Nationwide Demonstrations From Multiple Groups:?France will see a wave of demonstrations this weekend through the start of October. On Saturday, motorcades against obligatory motorcycle roadworthiness tests will overlap with protests against President Macron’s appointment of Michel Barnier as prime minister. This is the second wave of nationwide demonstrations against Barnier, with previous rallies drawing over 100,000 people, including 26,000 in Paris.?(Note: Some of the following links are in French.)

• France Unbowed (LFI), the largest party in the New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, called for demonstrations across France on Saturday, September 21, against President Macron and Prime Minister Barnier. Notable gatherings include Paris (Place de la Bastille at 2 pm), Marseille (Porte d’Aix at 2 pm), and Lyon (Place Bellecour at 2:30 pm). Unions, climate organizations, and several other organizations plan to participate in Saturday’s protests.??
• Looking ahead, French unions and youth organizations are calling for a nationwide strike on October 1 over various issues, including Barnier’s appointment, pension reform, and austerity measures. Expect demonstrations in major cities in conjunction with the strike.?
• The French Federation of Angry Bikers is calling for a weekend of mobilizations against now-mandatory technical inspections, with more than 60 gatherings planned between Saturday and Sunday. Thousands of motorcyclists complicated traffic in Paris last April as part of their protest campaign.?

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