Friday Risk Watch: September 13, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team .

Expect updates on emerging risks , geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

North America Prepares for Major Strike Action:?Labor disputes at two major aviation companies in North America—Boeing and Air Canada—are triggering concerns over industrial action. Boeing workers went on strike at 12:01 this morning, crippling the company’s factories in the Northwest. Meanwhile, Air Canada pilots may issue a 72-hour strike notice on Sunday, disrupting air travel nationwide.??

• Around 33,000 unionized machinists at Boeing voted to strike yesterday, prompting a walkout that began at 12:01 am PDT this morning. The strike affects most of the company’s airplane production and is expected to cost Boeing an estimated $1 billion per week, exacerbating cash flow issues and complicating the aerospace company’s efforts to restore its reputation after several incidents involving its planes. Extended strike action will also likely disrupt the wider aviation supply chain and delay jet deliveries to airlines, several of which are facing plane shortages.
• Over the border, more than 5,000 unionized pilots with Air Canada may issue a 72-hour strike notice on Sunday, setting the stage for a nationwide walkout as soon as Wednesday. The airline, which controls over 40% of the domestic market, is expected to begin suspending operations by Sunday if an agreement isn’t reached, affecting tens of thousands of passengers and cargo. Air Canada is requesting the federal government step in to halt the potential strike.?

Tropical Activity Ramping Up as Atlantic Hurricane Season Reaches Peak: Francine dissipated Thursday evening after striking as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving significant impacts along the Gulf Coast. Now, attention shifts to a potential disturbance forming off the Carolina coast late this weekend, during the peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

• Francine caused severe flooding in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, with more than 450,000 customers in Louisiana and 66,000 in Mississippi left without power during the storm's peak Thursday morning. Today, around 120,000 customers remain without power. ?
• Numerous rescues were conducted in flooded areas, including that of 26 people in Lafourche Parish. Schools and universities like LSU and Tulane canceled classes or moved online, with many still closed today.
• Forecasts indicate a low to medium chance of tropical development off the Carolina coast starting late this weekend, yielding potentially heavy rain, gusty winds, and hazardous coastal conditions early next week.?
• While the exact track and intensity remain uncertain, residents in the Carolinas are advised to stay updated, as rain and localized flash flooding are expected whether or not the system becomes a named storm.??

Central Europe Braces for Potentially Record-Breaking Rains, Flooding, and Mountain Snow: An unusually strong storm will bring extreme rain, flooding, and mountain snow across Central Europe this weekend into early next week. (Note: The following links are not in English.) Residents in Austria , Czechia, Poland , and Slovakia should take immediate precautions as local authorities issue maximum-level warnings for dangerous conditions.

• Between Friday and Sunday, expect widespread rain totals of 125-250 mm (5-10 inches) inundating areas across Czechia, Poland, and Slovakia. Local officials are already preparing for potential record rainfall in some locations, such as Wroclaw, Poland, with as much as 380 mm (nearly 16 in) expected. Residents near rivers, streams, and valleys should prepare for flash floods, follow evacuation orders, and avoid waterways.?
• In Austria, up to 300-400 mm (12-16 in) of rain may fall in the northern Stau areas, prompting local authorities to issue travel warnings and cancel major events, including the Wachau Marathon and Roman Festival in Carnuntum.
• Heavy snow is expected in the Austrian Alps, with accumulations of 75-100 cm (30-40 in) or more. Hazardous travel conditions are likely, and mountain regions are advised to brace for crippled mountain pass travel above 1,500 to 2,000 meters.
• Austria’s national railway service, ?BB , issued a travel warning, urging passengers to postpone journeys from Friday to Sunday due to expected flooding and delays. Similar occurrences may spread through surrounding areas of Slovakia, Czechia, and Southern Poland, with heavy rains maximizing over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bebinca Set to Threaten Southern Japan and East China:?Tropical Storm Bebinca is poised for rapid intensification into a typhoon over the weekend. Residents in East China should stay vigilant, as the storm's impacts are expected to coincide with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.?

• Bebinca is forecast to become a typhoon by the weekend as it approaches the East China Sea around September 16.?The storm will likely pass near Japan’s Okinawa Islands by Saturday, yielding damaging winds, heavy rain, and dangerous seas. Localized flooding and disruptions to air and sea travel are possible, with the potential for typhoon impacts targeting Amami ōshima Island, depending on its exact track.?
• Further strengthening is anticipated as Bebinca moves across the East China Sea. Landfall as a typhoon is likely along the Zhejiang or Northern Fujian Coast around September 16, where strong winds and torrential rains could cause flooding and infrastructure damage.?
• With landfall expected during the holiday, travel and celebrations in Eastern China may be significantly affected. Travelers, especially those heading to coastal areas like Zhejiang, Fujian, and the Zhoushan Islands, should monitor updates and adjust plans as necessary.?

Holidays and Festivals Planned in Several Asian Countries: Expect heightened security, traffic disruptions, and business and office closures in urban areas across Asia as multiple religious festivals and holidays approach.??

• China and Taiwan will celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday between September 15 and 17. Traffic is expected to be particularly bad beginning Saturday afternoon. However, travel plans may be disrupted due to Typhoon Bebinca.??
• Elsewhere in East Asia, South Koreans are preparing to celebrate Chuseok from September 16 to 18. An ongoing strike by trainee doctors has stretched South Korea’s health system, with officials concerned it may not be equipped to handle a surge of cases during the holiday.?The country declared an emergency medical response period as they attempt to ensure services.?
• Many Muslim populations?will celebrate the birth of Muhammad—known as Mawlid, Eid-e-Milad, or Milad-un-Nab—on September 16 or 17, depending on the country. In some locations, such as Pakistan, the day has been previously marked by terrorist attacks on religious gatherings and processions.
• Hindu communities in India and elsewhere will wrap up a ten-day festival celebrating the god Ganesh on September 17. The largest celebrations are expected in Mumbai. Due to the overlap between Ganesh Chaturthi and Mawlid, clashes between Hindu and Muslim groups are possible. Police have prohibited gatherings in Karnataka’s Mandya district after violence broke out during a Ganesh Chaturthi procession.

Stay in the Know

Don’t miss crucial information that can make difference. Follow us on X and TikTok for upcoming editions of Friday Risk Watch, and subscribe for weekly reports that can ensure the safety and security of your organization.