Friday Risk Watch: October 25, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Tropical Storm Kills Over 80 in Philippines, Now Eyeing Vietnam: Tropical Storm Trami exited the Philippines and is moving towards Central Vietnam, where it will likely stall and bring severe weather. Authorities in both countries are responding to impacts and preparing for further challenges ahead.?

• The death toll in the Philippines has surpassed 80, with several people still reported missing. Search and rescue operations are ongoing, especially in Batangas and Bicol. Over 360,000 people in the Philippines are without power, though the number is gradually declining as restoration efforts continue.
• The Philippines downgraded heavy rainfall warnings near Manila as Trami moves into the South China Sea. However, monsoon rains persist, particularly in Palawan, Mindoro, and Visayas. A state of calamity has been declared in Quezon Province and Quezon City, where around 8,000 people are utilizing shelters. Severe flooding forced evacuations in Barangay Escaler, Magalang, and Pampanga and displaced about 12,000 residents in Eastern Visayas.?
• In Vietnam, Trami will likely stall near the central coast, bringing torrential rain and potentially extreme flooding between ??ng H?i and Qu?ng Ng?i. Forecast models suggest rainfall totals could exceed 15-20 inches (375-500 mm) between October 26-28, with persistent flooding possible through October 30.
• Vietnam prepared 285,000 soldiers and 13 planes for storm response efforts, and authorities are planning evacuations in vulnerable areas. Widespread disruptions in Central Vietnam—including port closures, highway shutdowns, and hundreds of flight delays or cancellations—are anticipated due to high winds and flooding. Gale-force winds may result in downed trees and power outages, with multi-day school and business closures possible.?

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Over Half a Million Evacuate as Cyclone Hits Eastern India: Cyclone Dana weakened significantly post-landfall in India and is now a remnant low-pressure disturbance. While the immediate threat has diminished, authorities are still assessing damage and gradually restoring normalcy to regional transportation networks.

• The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its final advisory on Dana as the storm weakened to a remnant area of low pressure, signaling the end of major coastal impacts. However, widespread heavy rain continues and red rainfall warnings remain in effect through Friday night. Expect showers to become more isolated by Saturday, with yellow alerts replacing the more severe warnings.
• Meanwhile, transportation operations are improving. In Kolkata, flight services resumed at Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport, and train services are gradually normalizing.?Authorities confirmed one fatality in West Bengal, and initial damage reports are limited primarily to downed trees and utility lines. Significant storm surge inundation was reported in Kendrapara, Odisha.
• Before landfall, over 500,000 people evacuated across West Bengal and Odisha. Authorities remain prepared to accommodate up to three million people in shelters, with over 7,000 shelters open in Odisha. At least 200 train services and over 300 flights were canceled during the storm. Shipping operations at Kolkata Port were also suspended.

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Europe to See Several Immigration-Related Demonstrations This Weekend: Immigration continues to drive significant protest activity in Europe, with several demonstrations and counterdemonstrations planned over the weekend.

• On Saturday in London, anti-immigration activist Tommy Robinson plans a march from Victoria Station to Downing St at 11 am. In response, several unions and civil society groups, including Stand Up to Racism and the Public and Commercial Services Union, are organizing an opposing demonstration at Piccadilly Circus at 11:30 am. Robinson held a similar rally in July that attracted thousands of supporters, counterdemonstrators, and police presence.
• Dundalk, Ireland will see the latest in what has become a series of demonstrations against housing refugees on Sunday. Dundalk Says No plans to gather at the Dundalk Court Office (Magnet Rd) at 2 pm. Past gatherings have drawn counterdemonstrators.
• The Lisbon area has seen multiple nights of rioting after Odair Moniz, a man from Cape Verde, was shot and killed by police in the Amadora municipality. Tomorrow, the Vida Justa movement plans to march from the Marquês de Pombal to the Assembly of the Republic at 3 pm to demand justice for Moniz.

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Pivotal Elections Planned in Multiple Countries: Voters in several countries will head to the polls in a wave of elections. Japan, Georgia, Uruguay, Bulgaria, Uzbekistan, and Lithuania hold national elections, while Brazil plans the second round of municipal elections in more than 50 municipalities.

• On Saturday, Georgia will hold parliamentary elections amid uncertainty and heightened tensions related to the country’s plans for accession to the European Union and its relationship with Russia. Georgia has seen waves of protests this year over the passage of its Foreign Agent Law and a law restricting LGBTQ+ rights. Further demonstrations around the election are likely, especially if the ruling Georgian Dream party is victorious.??
• Japan will elect all 465 members of the Lower House of Representatives on Sunday. The vote comes a few weeks after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba replaced former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida due to plummeting approval ratings for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Earlier this week, a man threw several firebombs at the LDP’s headquarters in Tokyo before crashing his car into the fencing around the Prime Minister’s residence. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, also of the LDP, was assassinated in 2022.?
• On Sunday, Brazil will hold second round elections in municipalities with over 200,000 registered voters. Of the 51 municipalities selecting mayors on Sunday, 15 are state capitals, including Sao Paulo. In the first round, the ruling Worker’s Party lost ground to other parties, including former President Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party.??

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U.S. Election Nears Amid Political Violence, Warnings From Officials: America’s presidential candidates will hold rallies in major urban centers in the coming days as campaign season nears its end. With less than two weeks before election day, officials are finalizing security measures and preparing for potential post-election unrest.?

• Vice President Harris is in Houston for a rally tonight that will reportedly feature Beyoncé and Willie Nelson. Meanwhile, after a few stops in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, former President Trump will head to Manhattan for a rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.?
• Officials across the country are bolstering security as the election nears and incidents of political violence continue to increase. On Tuesday, authorities in Arizona arrested an individual suspected of conducting a string of shootings at the Democratic Party’s campaign office in Tempe. Officials also believe he was planning to commit “an act of mass casualty.”??
• The U.S. intelligence community warns of post-election threats expected to be partly driven by foreign actors.?

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