Friday Risk Watch: November 8, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Early November Global Tropics Remain Active: Tropical weather is maintaining its prevalence across the globe. Hurricane Rafael brought significant impacts to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba midweek. The Western Pacific basin is contending with Typhoon Yinxing (Marce).?

• Tropical Storm Rafael passed by Jamaica midweek, bringing severe conditions to the island. Several landslides closed roads and isolated communities. More than 10,000 residents are still without power in the days following the storm’s passage. ?

• (Please note some of these links are in Spanish.) After passing Jamaica, the system underwent rapid intensification, becoming a Category 3 Hurricane before making landfall in Playa Majana, Cuba, on Wednesday afternoon.?Powerful winds and heavy rainfall damaged buildings and brought flooding across western portions of the country. Cuba's already vulnerable power grid suffered widespread power outages, although power is now slowly being restored.??

• Rafael has since tracked into the western Gulf of Mexico. The cooler water and strong wind shear are expected to weaken the storm over the weekend. Minimal rainfall totals are possible along the U.S. Gulf Coast.??

• The two landfalls of Typhoon Yinxing (Marce) in the northern Philippines triggered evacuations of almost 18,000 residents in northern Cagayan. The storm has continued westward into the South China Sea where it will significantly weaken.?A second system could develop on the heels of Typhoon Marce going into next week.??

Wildfires Ravage California Prompting Widespread Evacuations: Parts of California were placed under a rarely-issued ‘extremely critical’ fire risk Wednesday as several large fires ignited close to populous areas. The Mountain Fire in Ventura County quickly gained ground, burning over 10,000 acres in just one day. Planned power shutoffs were implemented across Central California ahead of the highest fire days.?

• The Santa Ana winds that have been causing this event are expected to ease over the next few days. Weaker winds should give firefighters a chance to gain ground on the blaze.??

• Over 14,000 residents were evacuated from the active fire Wednesday as the flames quickly encroached on the Ventura County community. At least 20 homes were burned; that number is likely to grow as crews assess damage.??

• FEMA emergency funds have been allocated for those affected by the fire.?

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U.S. Cities to See Wave of Demonstrations in Response to Presidential Election: After Donald Trump was declared winner of the U.S. presidential election on Wednesday, various civil society groups began mobilizing and planning demonstrations in response. Though demonstration activity related to the election has remained largely peaceful, protest activity in cities like Chicago and Seattle caused some disruptions, including blocked roads, vandalism, and arrests. ?

• Further demonstrations have been planned for this weekend. Tonight in San Francisco, demonstrators plan to gather at the Federal Building at 5 pm. Tomorrow, demonstrations are planned in Boston (Massachusetts State House at 3 pm) and Seattle (Space Needle at 1 pm). Other cities, including New York City, Portland, OR, and Washington, DC, will also see demonstrations.?

• Demonstrations against President-Elect Trump also took place in several cities in the U.K., including Edinburgh, Glasgow, and London. The prominent activist group “Stand Up to Racism” is planning to hold student-led protests in several other cities over the weekend.?

Disruptions Expected Around Major International Conferences: On Sunday, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) will begin in Lima. Attendees are expected to include the U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and several others who have confirmed their attendance. On the other side of the globe, transport disruptions, area restrictions, and heightened security can be expected in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital city, in the coming days due to the COP29 Climate Change Conference, which commences Monday.?

• (Please note these links are in Spanish.) In Peru, hundreds of transportation groups across the country are planning to hold a 72-hour nationwide strike between November 13 and 15 to demand greater security measures from the government amidst high crime rates. Extortion has been rampant in the Lima and Callao regions, prompting the government to declare a State of Emergency. The strike action, which will coincide with APEC, is expected to cause major travel disruptions nationwide, including at Lima's main international airport.?

• As in years past,?the UN’s annual Climate Change Conference is expected to spur demonstrations by activist groups, some of which will likely draw large crowds in major cities across the globe. Climate activists in Boston will take to the streets on Saturday, while, across the Atlantic, several hundred people will march in Brussels on Sunday.??

• In addition to climate-related actions expected during COP29, pro-Palestinian groups will stage demonstrations. On Monday, activists in London will gather at the Embassy of Turkey to demand Turkish officials stop Azeri oil shipments to Israel.?

Public Anger Rises in Spain Following Catastrophic Flooding: Demonstration activity is increasing across Spain as the damage caused by the country's deadliest weather disaster in decades becomes clear. At least 217 people were killed due to mass flooding. Transportation and essential services continue to be disrupted. Discontent with the government’s response to the flooding is fueling demonstrations, with notable gatherings planned this weekend in Madrid and Valencia. (Please note some of the following links are in Spanish.)?

• Demonstrators in Valencia intend to gather at Plaza del Ayuntamiento before marching to the Palau de la Generalitat on Saturday to demand the government take responsibility for casualties and damage caused by the flooding. Earlier this week, demonstrators flung mud and other objects at Spanish officials who visited a town in Valencia province, the area hardest hit. Residents of Valencia reportedly received delayed warnings for the floods, likely contributing to the high death toll.?

• In Madrid, demonstrators will gather on Saturday at Plaza de Espa?a at 8 pm before marching to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) office on Calle de Ferraz. The PSOE has told its employees to stay away from the office on Saturday out of an abundance of caution, and heightened security can be expected in the area. The group Nucleo Nacional is behind Madrid’s protest and has been involved in demonstrations against the government since late last year. ?

• The group Patriotas Revolucionarios, which claims no political affiliation, originally called for widespread demonstrations on Sunday but has since cancelled its plans. The Vox-affiliated group Revuelta expressed public support for the now-cancelled Sunday gatherings.??

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