Friday Risk Watch: November 15, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Tropical Storm Sara to Bring Catastrophic Flooding to Honduras: Tropical Storm Sara is expected to bring extreme rainfall and catastrophic flooding to Honduras, with northern coastal regions facing severe impacts through early next week. Comparisons to historic storms like Hurricanes Fifi and Mitch underscore the risk of widespread devastation.

• Sara’s wind intensity is forecast to remain at tropical storm levels. However, prolonged heavy rain and impacts remain a life-threatening concern.?
• Northern Honduras faces catastrophic flooding and landslides, with widespread rainfall of 10-20 inches and up to 40 inches in high-elevation areas. (Note: the following link is in Spanish.) The Sierra La Esperanza region faces the highest risk of life-threatening flash floods and river overflows.
• Sara’s path mirrors deadly storms Hurricane Fifi (1974) and Mitch (1998), which caused tens of thousands of primarily flood-induced fatalities in Honduras. While forecasting has improved since then, the risk of significant loss of life remains.?
• Elsewhere, tropical storm conditions are expected across the Yucatan Peninsula between November 17-18, with heavy rain, scattered flooding, and short-term power outages likely in Belize and Mexico.?
• Florida is at minimal risk of direct impact, as Sara’s remnants are forecast to merge with a cold front, bringing locally heavy showers and cooler weather to the Southeastern U.S. by mid-next week.?

Potentially Severe Winds and Precipitation Bound for Ireland, U.K., France, BeNeLux: In recent weeks, Spain has endured a series of storms that led to historic flooding, hundreds of deaths, and widespread damage. Next week, Spain looks to receive a break, but windier, wetter, and colder conditions will impact Northwest Europe. ??

• Northwest Europe is seeing unseasonably mild weather as a high-pressure system pushes the jet stream and cooler air north. Between Saturday and Monday, this system will shift, allowing cooler northwest winds to bring some of the season’s chilliest air.
• Monday into early Tuesday, a strong storm fueled by sharp temperature contrasts will move rapidly across Ireland, Wales, England, BeNeLux, and Germany. Widespread wind gusts of 40-50 mph, with isolated peaks over 60 mph, could disrupt travel and cause coastal flooding. Frequent showers may bring over an inch of rain in some areas, leading to isolated street flooding.
• Mixed wintry precipitation remains uncertain, but areas north of the storm track could see a dusting to a few inches. Dublin and London will likely see only flurries, with higher snowfall chances in Northern England’s Pennines.?

Philippines Hit With Subsequent Typhoons: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center recently identified four Western Pacific storms simultaneously, a rare November occurrence. Three have already impacted the Philippines, causing flooding, infrastructure damage, and evacuations. The fourth, Tropical Storm Man-Yi (Pepito), is expected to make landfall as a major typhoon this weekend.

• Two tropical systems made landfall within days. Tropical Storm Toranji (Nika) hit Dilasag, Aurora, on November 11, followed by Typhoon Usagi (Ofel) on November 14. Together, they impacted over 309,000 people across five regions, forcing over 41,000 evacuations and causing widespread severe flooding.
• Typhoon Man-Yi (Pepito) is strengthening as it moves west toward Luzon, likely passing just north of the Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. At landfall, it could reach peak intensity, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. Expect school closures, travel disruptions, and evacuations as the storm nears the Philippines by Saturday. While Manila remains in the forecast cone, only outer rainbands are currently expected to affect the area on Sunday.

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Thousands March in New Zealand to Protest Treaty Principles Bill: Thousands of members of the Māori community and their supporters are taking part in a hīkoi, or march, to the capital, Wellington. They will protest legislation that would reinterpret New Zealand’s founding document, the Treaty of Waitangi. Opponents of the bill say it will erode Māori rights. Around 5,000 people marched through Central Auckland earlier this week, with numbers expected to grow as the group approaches Wellington.?

• Marchers will gather on Saturday in Hastings (Clock Tower Hastings at 10 am) and on Sunday in Palmerston North (Te Marae o Hine at 10 am) and ōtaki (ōtaki Railway Station at 2 pm). ?
• The march will culminate with a rally in Wellington on Tuesday, with tens of thousands expected to have joined the procession. In Wellington, demonstrators plan to gather at Waitangi Park at 9 am before marching to Parliament Grounds. They’ll then return to Waitangi Park at 2:30 pm for further events. ?
• An opposing gathering is planned for Saturday in Auckland. Activist and politician Brian Tamaki is planning a “Make New Zealand Great Again” rally with a motorcade from the Mercer Service Centre into Auckland at 9:30 am, followed by a rally at the Auckland Domain at noon. ?

Pro-Palestine, Climate Demonstrations Continue Across U.S., Europe: The U.K.'s Climate Justice Coalition is calling for a Global Day of Action this Saturday to protest government inaction on climate change and the U.N.'s decision to hold COP29 in an oil and gas-producing state. Several pro-Palestine groups plan to demonstrate this weekend, both alongside and separately from climate activists.

• In London, over 60 organizations, including several pro-Palestine groups, are expected to march from Great Russell St to 10 Downing St Saturday afternoon for the Climate Justice Coalition's March for Global Climate Justice. Meanwhile, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign is organizing a "Boycott Barclays Day of Action," with over two dozen gatherings outside bank locations across England and Wales.
• In Texas, pro-Palestinian activist groups are organizing multiple days of demonstrations in response to the Jewish National Fund’s Global Conference for Israel, which began in Dallas on Thursday. Activist groups, including the Dallas-Fort Worth chapter of Jewish Voice for Peace,?are organizing a major day of action on Saturday to “shut down the JNF.”
• Across the Atlantic, expect large gatherings calling for a ceasefire in Gaza on Saturday, including in Rome (Piazza Della Camelie at 3 pm), Zürich (Helvetiaplatz at 3 pm), and Dublin (march from the German Embassy to Leinster House at 1 pm). The demonstrations come on the heels of violent protests over an Israeli-Netherlands?football game.?

Brazilian Authorities Work to Mitigate Threats at G20 Summit: The G20 Summit kicked off in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Thursday and will conclude next Tuesday. Various heads of state, including U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, are among the 40,000 attendees expected at the summit. The gathering will likely drive demonstration activity both within Brazil and abroad. ?

• Tens of thousands of law enforcement units were deployed to oversee the event. Authorities are on high alert after a suicide bomber died while attempting to blow up Brazil’s Supreme Court building on the eve of the summit. Officials are investigating this as a terrorist attack by politically motivated domestic extremists.?
• Authorities are also monitoring demonstrations surrounding the event. The labor union Central dos Trabalhadores e Trabalhadoras do Brasil (CTB) has planned several gatherings throughout the summit, including a "March of the People" on Saturday morning at Copacabana Beach. In S?o Paulo,?various environmental activist groups are also planning to march, starting from the?Museu de Arte de S?o Paulo (MASP) at 3 pm. On Monday, pro-Palestine groups will hold a demonstration in Rio de Janeiro’s Cinelandia at 10 am. ?
• Demonstration activity is also expected internationally. France's main farmers' unions are calling for nationwide demonstrations beginning on Monday against the proposed EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, which will likely be finalized at the G20 summit.?

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