Friday Risk Watch: May 17, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Record Ocean Temperatures Persist Weeks Before Atlantic Hurricane Season:?The Eastern Pacific hurricane season?officially began on Wednesday, with forecasters?tracking a disturbance?south of Mexico. Meanwhile, warm ocean temperatures shatter records two weeks before the Atlantic season commences. ?

• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified the first notable disturbance of the year—a?low-pressure area?expected to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. There is a low-to-medium chance of this system forming into a tropical depression over the next week. Significant land impacts are unlikely.?
• Within the Atlantic hurricane basin—which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea—residents brace for a hyperactive season following a preliminary outlook released by?Colorado State University?in April. NOAA will issue a similar above-average?forecast on?Thursday,?May 23. ?
• The Atlantic Hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) is experiencing record-high water temperatures, with?current ocean heat?at levels typically observed in early August. There is rising confidence that enhancing La Ni?a conditions will develop during the hurricane season.?At this stage,?there is little reason to doubt that 2024 will be one of the top 10 most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.??

Canada's Wildfire Season Starts with Devastating Blazes, Thousands Already Evacuated:?Multiple out-of-control wildfires burning across Canada over the last week have driven thousands of people to evacuate, with many uncertain when they'll return home. Firefighters are battling?over?100 blazes?nationwide, primarily in British Columbia and Alberta. ?

• Many fires?are thought?to have been caused by the surface reignition of holdover?"zombie fires”?from the 2023 record fire season. Canadian fire officials warn of an explosive season that may rival last year.?
• More than 6,000 people have evacuated from Fort McMurray, Alberta, since Monday as a 50,000-acre (20,000 ha) fire burns less than five miles from the city’s edge. The regional municipality states that residents should plan to be away from home?until at least May 21.
• Temporary relief is possible as a large, late-week storm tracks through Western and Central Canada, bringing increased chances of rain and cooler air.?Fire danger conditions?echo improvements with lower fire conditions through the weekend. ?
• Air quality?in several U.S. states, including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, and Iowa, has recently deteriorated. Experts indicate that waves of wildfire smoke may threaten the area with poor air quality through the summer.?

Taiwan Prepares to Hold Presidential Inauguration Ceremony Amid Tensions With China:?Expect heightened security and possible aggressive military posturing from China on and around Monday, May 20, as Taiwan prepares for the inauguration of President-elect Lai Ching-te. Several?foreign delegations plan to attend, including an unofficial group from the U.S. Swearing-in ceremonies, including a closely-watched inaugural address from Lai, will occur at the Presidential Office Building and Taipei Guest House.

• Ahead of the ceremony, the opposition Taiwan People’s Party is planning a demonstration outside the governing Democratic Progressive Party’s Taipei headquarters on Saturday, May 19, at 2 p.m. Additional rallies and demonstrations are possible in the days surrounding the inauguration. ?
• There are?concerns?that China will?stage?aggressive military drills or attempt to disrupt the ceremony. In recent days, Taiwanese officials have said that cyberattacks have?surged, and China has?increased military activity around the island. On May 8, the U.S. sent a?warship?through the Taiwan Strait. ?
• Expect air and road traffic disruptions during the inauguration period. Authorities plan to?block roads?near the Presidential Palace before and during the ceremony. Some commercial flights at Taipei Songshan Airport may be?rescheduled?or delayed. ?

Mexico Braces for Nationwide Marches in Support of Democracy: (Please note that some links are in Spanish.) On Sunday, marchers will flood city streets across Mexico as over 100 social, civic, and political groups call?for nationwide demonstrations supporting democracy. These marches come ahead of the country's?general?elections?on Sunday, June 2.?

• Marches?are planned?in over 80 cities, including Cancún, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Puebla. Previous related days of action saw?large-scale demonstrations?in over 100 cities. While previous marches have been largely?peaceful, some drew hundreds of thousands of participants.
• The main action will occur in Mexico City at 9:00 a.m. at the Zócalo. Presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez has?confirmed?her attendance at the march, which coincides with the last?presidential debate,?which will take place in the capital later that day at 8:00 p.m.?

Nakba Anniversary Sparks Uptick in Protest Activity:?Expect an increase in pro-Palestinian demonstrations in urban areas across the globe as organizers plan?major?actions in conjunction with the Nakba. Nakba Day, officially commemorated on May 15, marks the forced removal of Palestinians from their homes in 1948.?Wednesday’s worldwide marches showed?the heightened protest activity expected through the weekend.?

• Saturday will see several rallies, including in?Washington, D.C.?(National Mall at 1 p.m.),?Brooklyn?(5th Ave and Bay Ridge Ave at 2 p.m.),?London?(March from BBC Portland Square to Whitehall at noon),?Berlin?(Oranienplatz at 2 p.m.), and?Paris?(Place de la République at 2 p.m.).?
• Widespread protest activity will continue into Sunday. A Texas-wide protest is planned at the capitol building in?Austin?at 1 p.m. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic,?demonstrators in?Belgium?will gather at Brussels’ north train station at 1:30 p.m., demanding the European Union's call for a permanent ceasefire.?
• AlertMedia has identified over 50 actions in support of Palestine planned across?Spain?between Saturday and Sunday. Spain is one of four European countries expected to?recognize?a Palestinian state early next week. The symbolic announcement?will increase?the number of EU members recognizing Palestine to 12, with more member states likely to follow suit. ?

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