Friday Risk Watch: May 10, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Southeast Australia Faces Weekend Flooding Threat:?New South Wales has faced multiple rainfall events?in recent weeks, though none have been overly severe.?This weekend, saturated soil conditions?coupled with a?heavy rainfall episode?could result in more notable flood impacts.??

• As of Saturday morning (local time), radar and satellite scans reveal an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms focused near Sydney into the NSW South Coast.
• Through Saturday evening and early Sunday, a slow-moving storm along the East Coast could reinforce a localized band of torrential rainfall, setting the stage for worsening urban flooding and moderate to major river flooding. ?
• Widespread rain totals between 100-200mm (4-8in), with localized instances of rainfall?greater?than 250mm (10in) are possible.?
• Additional Severe Weather Warnings and Flood Warnings will likely be issued by the?Bureau of Meteorology.?While it's difficult to determine the exact placement and impact of higher rainfall amounts, those in the Greater Sydney metro and Southeast New South Wales region should remain weather-aware through the weekend.?

Georgians Protest “Foreign Agent” Law Ahead of Final Hearing:?In Georgia, thousands?are expected?to protest?a contentious bill?requiring organizations that receive foreign funding to identify as foreign agents. The bill, which?was reintroduced?last month, has sparked?major?demonstrations across the country, with?multiple instances?of violence reported in the capital city of Tbilisi.?

• A mass demonstration against the bill?is planned?for Saturday, May 11, at Tbilisi’s Europe Square. The date coincides with several commemorative events for?Europe Day.?Opponents of the bill?warn?that it will hinder the country's aspirations of joining the European Union.?
• Another protest in Tbilisi is scheduled overnight on Sunday, May 12, ahead of the third and final hearing on the bill by Georgia’s parliament on Monday. Police have previously?used?water cannons and tear gas to disperse large crowds that have gathered to oppose the legislation.?
• Despite?major?protests, Georgia’s parliament appears poised to adopt the law. While Georgia’s president said she would not sign off on it, political parties supporting the bill could override her veto.?

Special Forces Arrive in Zacatecas to Help Quell Violence:?Following the?killing?of a Sinaloa Cartel leader known as "El Gordo" during a police operation in Fresnillo on May 5, cartel members have?retaliated this week with a string of violent acts in the state of Zacatecas. (Note: the following links are in Spanish.) At least 20 people have been killed in this wave of violence.

• After days of clashes, road blockades, and homicides, 1,000 Army special forces operators?arrived?in Zacatecas on Thursday. The troops will deploy to various points across the state, with a?reported?focus on Fresnillo.?
• The following areas have been the most affected by violence: Pánfilo Natera, Valparaíso, Sombrerete, Fresnillo, Cieneguitas, and Río Grande. The U.S. Department of State?advises against travel to the entire state of Zacatecas due to crime and kidnapping.?
• In anticipation of further violence,?at least 63 schools were?moved?to a virtual setting this week.?

Invasion of Rafah, Nakba Day Spark Further Demonstration Activity:?Israel's entry into Rafah has prompted a surge in protests, coinciding with preparations for Nakba Day on May 15. Many groups are planning demonstrations this weekend and next to commemorate the occasion.

• In Malm?, Sweden, a demonstration against Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest?is planned?for Saturday at 3:00 pm in Stortorget. Thousands took part in a?rally?earlier this week.?
• Other locations expecting demonstrations on Saturday include?London?(Israeli Embassy at 2:30 pm),?New York City?(Barclays Center at 2 pm),?Seattle?(Westlake Park at 2 pm),?Orlando?(Lake Eola Park @ 3:30 pm),?and?Toronto?(U.S. Consulate General at 2 pm). ?
• Encampments in support of Gaza?have?spread?to many European campuses, where authorities in some locations are using?tactics similar?to those in the U.S. to disperse demonstrators. Institutions in Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, and the U.K.?are also seeing?encampments.?

Geomagnetic Storm Could Threaten Global Infrastructure Friday Night into Saturday:?On Thursday, the Space Weather Prediction Center issued?its?first Severe?(G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch?since 2005, as several solar?flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have?been detected?on the sun. ?

• The intensity and direction of each CME greatly influence the?impact one can expect on Earth, and preliminary forecasts are often subject to?large?changes.?
• There is the potential for degraded satellite navigation and adverse impacts?on?electrical power grids and HF and LF radio communications. Increased?auroras?are likely within the mid to upper latitudes.?
• Impacts may peak Friday night into Saturday morning (EDT). G3 to G4-level impacts are most likely during this event, though?the full severity won’t be known?until the solar storms are within 20-45 minutes of reaching Earth. Warnings could be issued?around 8 pm Friday?night?(EDT), assuming that estimated arrival times are accurate. If G4 severity?is reached, notable infrastructure impacts are possible. Satellite, communication, and power grid operators have?been notified?to mitigate?the effects.?
• A?stronger?G5 storm event damaged the power grid in Sweden and South Africa in 2003.?

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