Friday Risk Watch: March 15, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Major Storm to Target Over Half a Dozen Middle Eastern Countries:?Between Sunday night and Wednesday morning, an abnormally strong area of low-pressure disturbed weather will track from Eastern Egypt and the Northern Red Sea northeastward through Iran. Strong mid-latitude storm systems commonly occur within the Middle East during the spring months, but forecast models indicate that this episode will feature?abnormally high rain rates?and gusty winds.??

• Inclement weather conditions will initially target Egypt Sunday night into Monday, where isolated flooding and reduced visibility are possible due to sandstorm activity.??
• Farther north, widely scattered flooding and gusty conditions will overspread Jordan, Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Western Iran, and immediate adjoining areas between Sunday evening and Tuesday afternoon.?
• The potential for more flooding—some catastrophic and life-threatening—could be highest across Eastern Iraq and Western Iran between Monday evening and Tuesday night. Rain totals could exceed 2-4 inches within parts of the area.??

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Northeast Argentina and Uruguay Drenched, With More Thunderstorms to Come:?At least one storm-related fatality was confirmed in Argentina following?several days of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Various power outages, flight cancellations, and infrastructural damage have struck areas of?metro Buenos Aires?especially hard.?

• The situation remains dire as forecasts indicate continued heavy thunderstorms that focus along a corridor between the Buenos Aires metro, Cordoba Province, and much of Uruguay through Saturday. Parts of the metro area have received over 200mm of rain since midweek, with 170mm (6.6in) coming during a 24-hour period on Wednesday.?
• Intense rainfall in Argentina's?main agricultural regions?has also flooded some farmlands, posing challenges for the 2023-2024 soybean harvest, where high soil moisture and inaccessible fields could lead to crop loss and fungal growth. However, the same conditions could benefit the wheat crop season, as abundant rains favor wheat planting, which begins in May.?
• Extended-range guidance indicates that above-average precipitation may persist through at least March 20.?

Urban Centers in the North Sea Region and Australia Brace for Climate Demonstrations: Environmental groups will hold large demonstrations in multiple countries this weekend. Activists in the North Sea region call for a day of action Saturday under the slogan “North Sea Fossil Free,” while those in Melbourne, Australia, are wrapping up a slow march campaign?the same day.?

• In?Melbourne, Extinction Rebellion will cap off a series of demonstrations with a mass slow march from Treasury Gardens at 2 pm, followed by a “mass civil disobedience” at 4 pm.??
• Germany?will see widespread demonstrations beginning at noon across at least ten cities, including Berlin, Cologne, and Munich. Letzte Generation, an activist group known for its disruptive campaigns, is organizing the actions.
• At least two other countries along the North Sea will see demonstrations. Extinction Rebellion?Sweden?is planning a blockade action at the Port of Gothenburg, and the?Netherlands?chapter is asking supporters in Rotterdam to target Shell with a rally.??

Middle East Conflict Continues Into Ramadan, Sparking More Demonstrations:?After an already busy week of protest activity highlighted by a?blockade?of a San Francisco International Airport terminal on Wednesday, widespread demonstrations in response to the ongoing Middle East conflict are planned for another consecutive weekend.??

• Canada's?major urban centers will see large demonstrations over the weekend. Activists in?Toronto?are planning a rally downtown at 6 pm tonight before gathering again near Bay and Front Street on Saturday.?Ottawa?will see demonstrators assemble at the Human Rights Monument on Saturday at 2 pm, while groups in?Calgary?will head to City Hall, also at 2. The next day, demonstrators in?Montreal?will gather on Rue Notre Dame at 2 pm.?
• In the U.K., the Palestine Solidarity Campaign and other groups are hosting over a dozen actions on Saturday. A march planned in?Belfast?from Queens University to the U.S. Consulate prompted an alert from the diplomatic outpost. Widespread actions are also planned throughout?Norway.?
• Other notable demonstrations include one outside the Israeli Consulate in downtown?Chicago?on Saturday, an action targeting Elbit Systems in?Ulm, Germany, also on Saturday, and a large gathering on Sunday at Gare du Nord in?Brussels.?

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Russia Heads to Polls Following Opposition Leader’s Death:?Expect heightened security in urban areas across Russia during the presidential election.??

• Voting polls opened today and close on Sunday, March 17. Incumbent President Vladimir Putin is?projected?to win the presidency again, with another six-year term leaving him in position until at least 2030.?
• The vote follows the recent death of prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny. His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, and other opposition figures have?called?for supporters and Putin critics to protest by queuing at voting centers at noon on Sunday to "overload polling stations.”?
• In February, police detained hundreds of people who attended demonstrations in Navalny's memory.?

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