Friday Risk Watch: June 7, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Mexico’s Water Crisis is Worsening While Drought and Wildfires Rage; Precursor for Southwest U.S.: Widespread drought and significant wildfire activity persist in Mexico. 174 wildfires are burning across the country, threatening various municipalities. Despite the start of a rainy season in mid-May, water reservoir levels remain depleted and continue to fall.?

• (Note: The following links are in Spanish.) Nationwide, reservoir levels decreased to 36% capacity within the last week. Water shortages are severe in Southern Tamaulipas, where state officials have asked for a federal emergency declaration. In Leon, running water is available on a rotating schedule during various days of the week. ?
• Medium-range forecast models indicate only modest improvements through June 11. A series of tropical waves may provide rainfall to southeastern states, including Chiapas.?
• To the north, several Western U.S. states have been under consecutive days of heat warnings for the first time this year. Current forecasts predict a continuation of well above-average temperatures through mid-June, though slightly above-average precipitation is forecast over New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona. ?

Severe Weather Wreaks Havoc in Central Chile; Round Two Could Threaten Santiago: (Note: The following links are in Spanish.) Midweek rains across South-Central Chile have increased river flows, suspended schools for thousands, and sparked power outages. While most weather-related incidents have remained south of the Greater Santiago area, a second storm may yield greater consequences for the capital area this weekend.?

• Since Wednesday, landslides have periodically obstructed key routes, including Route M50 in Maule, and N350 and N630 in ?uble. Landslides also affect local roads in Molina, Romeral, and Teno. Officials halted educational activities in several communes?due to safety concerns.?
• Another period of heavy rain is expected between midday Saturday and late Sunday, with widespread multi-day rainfall totals potentially reaching between 50-100 mm (2-4 inches), locally higher, by the end of the weekend.?
• In Santiago, lesser amounts, locally upward of 25 mm (1 inch), could fall across the area during the same period, with a heightened threat of isolated flash flooding. ?
• Longer-range forecast data supports periods of potentially hazardous weather—including lowland rains, heavy mountain snow, and elevated winds—continuing through mid-June. According to historical records, June is typically Santiago’s wettest month, averaging around 80 mm (3.2 inches).

Simmering Temperatures Bound for Southeast Europe: Vegetation in Southeast Europe, particularly in areas like Antalya, Türkiye, has become increasingly susceptible to fire, with recent outbreaks reported. With an impending change in the weather pattern, experts are confident that the frequency of wildfires will rise significantly in the coming week.

• Over the next ten days, a significant "blocking pattern" is set to form over Southeast Europe. This will cause the Balkan Peninsula, Greece, Türkiye, and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to experience persistent mid-level atmospheric ridging, diverting most active weather, including cloud cover and thunderstorms, to Spain and Central Europe.
• Aside from the occasional spotty thunderstorm, dry regional weather will likely prevail through mid-June. Data from the European Drought Observatory confirms that this area is already much drier than normal, with widespread warning level indicators present. ?
• In Greece, temperatures are expected to soar. In Athens, where the average high for June is 31.6°C (89°F), temperatures could reach 36.6°C (98°F) by Tuesday and Wednesday, and possibly higher. In other areas, highs have already surged into the upper 30s (up to 103°F), with forecasts predicting further escalation into the low 40s (104°F+) next week.
• In Türkiye, Antalya recorded a high of 46.2°C (115.2°F) on Thursday. Both Antalya and Mu?la have already reported extensive wildfire response efforts.

Germany Readies for Protests Amid Political Violence Concerns and E.U. Election Weekend: Around 373 million people across the European Union will head to the polls this weekend for European Parliamentary elections. One of the most contentious parties in the bloc, Alternative for Germany (AfD), has prompted widespread demonstrations across Germany since early this year, with several protests likely to be well-attended this weekend.?

• Berlin event organizers expect around 10,000 people to gather at the central square of Tiergarten Park at 2 pm. Expect heightened security as police close off surrounding streets to vehicular traffic. Gatherings against the AfD party are also planned on Saturday in Dresden, Frankfurt, Leipzig, and Munich.?
• The risk of political violence has impacted the security situation across Europe leading up to the European Parliament elections, particularly in Germany. Attacks on politicians in Germany have doubled since the 2019 European Parliament elections, with recent attacks in Mannheim sparking protest activity by opposing groups.?
• Polling suggests that this year’s election may see increased votes for parties often?categorized as far right, a notable shift away from the more centrist parties that have traditionally presided over E.U. politics. Election results will be available on the European elections website.?

Pro-Palestine Demonstrators to “Surround” White House on Saturday: This Saturday, pro-Palestine groups plan to hold a mass mobilization in Washington D.C. to "demand an immediate ceasefire" in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Demonstrators intend to gather at 12 pm to "surround" the White House. Expect heightened security presence and traffic disruptions in the area.?

• Several thousand?people will likely participate in the event as organizers arrange transportation to D.C. from at least 30 cities. A second demonstration is scheduled at The Ellipse at 4 pm, where participants intend to "stay the night" and hold a "people's trial" against Israel and the U.S. for their role in the conflict.?
• Expect similar demonstrations in other cities across the country. On Saturday, demonstrators in Los Angeles will gather at City Hall at 2 pm, while those in Houston will gather at the Israeli Consulate at 2 pm on Sunday.?
• Europe will also see several large demonstrations on Saturday. Organizers in the U.K. are planning a “National March” in London from Russell Square to Parliament beginning at 12:30 pm. Other large demonstrations are expected in Paris (March from Place de la Bastille to Place de la République at 3 pm), Geneva (Place de la Navigation at 4:30 pm), and Copenhagen (R?dhuspladsen at 2 pm.) ?

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Potential Strike Could Disrupt Canadian?Border Crossings, Airports: Thousands of workers?represented by the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) and Customs and Immigration Union (CIU), including guards at the Canada Border Services Agency, could strike as early as Friday afternoon if contract mediation with the government fails, potentially leading to disruptions along the country’s U.S. border.

• PSAC and CIU have given Canada’s Treasury Board until Friday at 4:00 pm to secure a deal, otherwise they’ll begin striking.?
• While a large percentage of border officers are deemed essential, meaning they cannot legally hold a complete work stoppage, reports suggest that workers could engage in a work-to-rule campaign. Unionized workers engaged in such an action in 2021, leading to “slowed operations” and delayed cargo transit.?
• If the action moves forward, border crossings and airports could see significant delays.?

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