Friday Risk Watch: July 26, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Tropical Storm Gaemi Strikes China After Devastating Taiwan and Northern Philippines: Heavy rain and increased flood risk will persist this weekend as Gaemi’s remnants move inland over East China. The storm made a second landfall in China’s Fujian province late Thursday night after causing significant damage in Taiwan and the Philippines.

• Tropical storm-force winds lashed the eastern coasts of Fujian and Southern Zhejiang, with over 240,000 residents preemptively evacuating ahead of Thursday’s landfall. Passenger trains were suspended, and over 500 flights were canceled across Fujian airports, including Fuzhou and Quanzhou.?
• Widespread rain of 4-8 inches (100-200 mm), with localized amounts over 12-16 inches (300-400 mm), is likely to cause flash flooding and increased landslide risk in Jiangxi, Southern Anhui, and Southeast Hubei through the weekend.
• Daily operations are gradually returning to normal in the Northern Philippines and Taiwan. In Taiwan, torrential rains caused severe flooding, killing at least three people and injuring over 500. The country was shut down for nearly two days. The storm also intensified monsoon rains in the Northern Philippines, triggering floods and landslides in Manila, resulting in nearly two dozen fatalities and the evacuation of at least 86,000 residents.
• In Manila Bay, heavy seas generated by the typhoon caused the sinking of the MT Terra Nova, a tanker carrying 1.4 million liters of industrial fuel, off the coast of Limay in Bataan province. The Philippines Coast Guard is actively working to contain the spill, which poses an ecological risk to the nearby area.?

First Major Wildland-Urban Fire Incident of 2024 Hits Alberta; Hundreds of Fires Out-of-Control: Over the past few weeks, the Western United States and Canada have seen a troubling surge in active wildfires. Jasper, Alberta, has suffered significant damage, and with firefighting resources stretched thin, there are fears that more communities could face similar devastation this summer.

• Since July 22, wildfires have prompted evacuations for Jasper Municipality and Jasper National Park, affecting roughly 25,000 residents and tourists. Wednesday night, a fire swept through the town, reportedly destroying half the community in a blaze.
• In Western Canada, consecutive days of above-average temperatures, limited rainfall, and lightning strikes have increased the number of fires. British Columbia reports 425 active fires, while Alberta reports 176.??
• These numbers prompt comparisons to Canada’s record-setting 2023 fire season. Fortunately, 2024 has seen about 800,000 hectares burned compared to nearly 1.5 million last year. However, the number of active fires is higher than any year prior to 2023.
• In the U.S., 89 large fires have burned over 1.6 million acres, per the National Interagency Fire Center. The West, where most large fires are ongoing, is expected to see a brief cooldown with average temperatures over the weekend. However, a high-pressure area will likely build over the Rockies in early August, leading to rising temperatures and further drying of vegetation.

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Olympic Games Open With Heightened Security Amid Geopolitical Tensions: As the Olympic Games officially kick off today, France is already undergoing a significant test of its extensive security preparations.

• Vandals targeted the country’s high-speed train network in a coordinated attack, causing significant disruptions just hours before the Opening Ceremony. The state-owned railway operator, SNCF, reported that arsonists damaged critical infrastructure. Travelers are advised to delay their plans as repairs are underway. Disruptions will likely last through the weekend. Other potential disruptions this weekend may stem from protests and road closures for Olympic competitions.?
• Increased protest activity is expected in major cities across France as organizers hope to use the media attention around the Olympics to advance their causes. Climate activist group Extinction Rebellion is organizing a Saturday demonstration against the Games and France’s government. While details remain unavailable to the public, the group is expected to attempt to occupy a symbolic Paris location.
• Pro-Palestinian activists in France are organizing several demonstrations against Israel’s participation in the Olympic Games. On Saturday, supporters intend to gather at Lyon’s Place de la République at 3 pm. Next Tuesday, expect demonstrations in Nantes as the Israeli football team plays against Japan. While Israel’s match against Mali on July 24 concluded without major disruptions, events involving Israeli Olympic athletes will likely see increased protest activity amid heightened security.?
• Traffic disruptions may also result from road cycling time trials, taking place Saturday. A map is available here. On Sunday, men’s basketball will take over Pierre Mauroy Stadium near Lille, while swimming events are at Paris La Défense Arena in Nanterre. A full Olympic event schedule can be found here.?

Environmental Activists Planning Wave of Demonstrations at Airports Across Europe: A coalition of climate activism groups has launched the “Oil Kills” campaign to end fossil fuel extraction and consumption by 2030. According to the UK-based Just Stop Oil (JSO), one of the 13 groups involved, they will target key areas of the fossil fuel economy, with protests lasting through summer. The aviation industry is a key target, with demonstrations planned at airports across Europe on Saturday.

• The Austrian chapter of Letzte Generation instructed supporters to protest at Zurich Airport on Saturday. They also plan to demonstrate in the Vienna Airport entrance hall at 11 am. The group indicated that similar actions will be held at airports in the U.K., Canada, Norway, and the Netherlands, although facilities outside these countries may also see disruptions.??
• In the U.K., the Metropolitan Police reportedly informed officials at London Gatwick Airport that JSO was planning a protest on Saturday. In response to the threat, the High Court granted Gatwick Airport Limited an injunction, allowing them to prohibit anyone from JSO from entering or occupying the facility. Other major airports in the U.K. have obtained similar injunctions.??
• Multiple actions targeting airports have already occurred as part of this effort. In Germany, demonstrators glued themselves to the tarmac at the Cologne-Bonn airport, while another group forcibly canceled more than 100 flights at Frankfurt Airport after breaching security fences. At London Heathrow, ten members of JSO were arrested after attempting to cut through a fence. Other actions were reported in Montreal, Vienna, Oslo, Zurich, and Geneva.???

Peru Prepares for Wave of Anti-Government Protests and Strikes During Its National Holidays: (Note: the following links are in Spanish). Expect disruptions across Peru this weekend during nationwide strikes and protests coinciding with the country’s national holidays (Fiestas Patrias). Numerous organizations are holding actions against Peruvian President Dina Boluarte, accusing her government of corruption and holding her responsible for the deaths of protesters during nationwide demonstrations in 2022 and 2023, among other issues.??

• Private and public services will likely see disruptions, as major labor unions have called for strikes. Border entry points, including the Jorge Chávez International Airport and Puerto del Callao in Lima, will likely be affected by strikes.?
• Social and civic organizations and politicians call for nationwide demonstrations beginning today, July 26, through Monday,?July 29. The main demonstration will be in Lima, near Plaza Dos de Mayo.?
• Clashes and other violence are likely during the protests. Deployed police are under orders to “immediately arrest” anyone who participates in roadblocks and other “criminal acts.” Additionally, police will inspect vehicles entering Lima to prevent protest violence.?

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