Friday Risk Watch: July 21, 2023

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

In each issue of?Friday Risk Watch, you can expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and more. We'll inform you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We're Watching:

Spanish Politics Heating Up Ahead of Sunday's Summer Snap Election:?Amid the summer heat and heightened tensions, voters in Spain will head to the polls this Sunday to decide the country's direction for the next four years. While no one political party is expected to win an outright majority, the main opposition, the People's Party (P.P.), is?polling ahead?of the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE).??

• Expect a heightened security presence across urban areas as over 98,000 security officers?will deploy?for Sunday's election. Political rallies will?end?Friday night, giving some reprieve before thousands of demonstrators gather in Madrid's Plaza de las Cortes on Sunday at 8:00 p.m. to mark the elections, according to the?U.S. Embassy in Spain.?
• Both major parties will likely need a coalition partner to form a government. With the People's Party ahead in polls right now, a win by them means a likely partnership with Vox, a party known to?oppose?abortion rights and immigration.?
• Vox's rise has prompted demonstrations, particularly over their?outspoken stance?on gender and sexual violence. Seeing them in the governing coalition will likely draw further action. On the other hand, an upset by PSOE would likely intensify unrest from the People's Party and Vox, which have?rallied?en masse against the government.?

Israeli Protests Intensify As Government Poised to Pass Judicial Reform:?Tensions in Israel will come to a head over the next few days as the government prepares to pass part of its controversial judicial reforms package on Monday or Tuesday. In addition to nationwide rallies on Saturday, additional actions are expected on Sunday and early next week as the Knesset?convenes?to advance a bill that would abandon the reasonableness standard of legal review.??

• Hundreds of demonstrators are?marching?from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They plan to arrive at the Knesset on Sunday afternoon, in time for the Knesset's plenum session. A pro-reform protest is scheduled for the same day on Kaplan Street in Tel Aviv at 6:00 p.m.??
• Daily disruptive demonstrations have occurred over the past week, with thousands holding rallies, blocking roads, and occasionally clashing with police.??
• Threats of widespread work stoppages are mounting. Reform opponents are?pressuring?the Histadrut Labor Federation to declare a general strike. Presidents of?nine universities?said they would hold a strike on Sunday, and the Israel Medical Association filed a labor dispute on Thursday, allowing them to legally walk out in two weeks. In addition, over the past several months, hundreds of?military reservists?have threatened not to report for duty.?

U.K. Strikes Time: The band is getting back together, and, no, we're not talking about?Creed; we're talking about Mick Lynch and his RMT union. The union is holding a series of rail strikes in the coming days, disrupting travel everywhere from London to Leeds.?

• Tens of thousands of RMT workers from over a dozen train operators will strike on Saturday, the second day in a three-part campaign by the union. Expect service reductions and cuts?across Great Britain, including routes that cross England's borders with Wales and Scotland. Find details on impacted operators?here.?
• The first RMT action occurred Thursday, and the final 24-hour strike in the series will take place next Saturday, July 29.??
• London expected travel disruptions to worsen on Sunday due to planned strikes on the capital's tube network, however,?unions canceled their actions this morning.

Fire Activity Fueled by Record Heat in Southern Europe:?Relentless heatwaves persist as the globe experiences its?hottest week recorded. Throughout the U.S., expect excessive heat to continue into the end of July and possibly early August. Southern Europe is also facing historically high temperatures, leading to a rapid surge in fire activity in recent days.??

• The heat wave 'Charon' in Southern Europe continues to intensify. Over the weekend, parts of Italy, Greece, and Western Turkey expect to bear the brunt of record-breaking heat. A few days ago, Rome experienced its?highest temperature, reaching a scorching 107.2F (41.8C).?
• Record-high temperatures are expected to fuel widespread fire conditions. Notably, the?European Union?has dispatched firefighting assistance to Greece in response to a rapid wildfire surge. Evacuations have begun in various regions, including Western Attica, Laconia, and Rhodes. Over the past seven days, fire activity has also been observed in other parts of Europe, including Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.?
• According to statistics from Copernicus, as of July 16, wildfires have burned 137,496ha in 2023, surpassing the long-term average of 128,225ha. Above-average fire activity is likely in Southern Europe through the next 10 days.

Significant Tropical Threat Brewing in the Philippine Sea:?A disturbance is set to intensify in the coming days and poses a potential risk to areas from the Philippines to Eastern China.?

• The?U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)?is closely monitoring a tropical disturbance located east of the Philippines.?
• Environmental conditions could become conducive for rapid development, and the storm will likely become Typhoon Doksuri in the coming days. Forecasters predict the system to move northwest over the Philippine Sea through Saturday, with minimal impacts on land.
• Beyond Saturday, there's substantial model variability, with potential trajectories ranging from striking Eastern Luzon to bypassing the Philippines entirely and posing a threat to Taiwan and/or Okinawa.?
• The current forecast leans towards a route threatening Eastern Luzon and surrounding areas, where weather conditions could deteriorate between Sunday and Monday.?
• Potentially substantial impacts may extend into Okinawa, Taiwan, or even Eastern China next week, though forecast confidence is very low. As a precaution, threatened residents should review emergency plans and prepare to mitigate potential impacts.?

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