Friday Risk Watch: July 14, 2023

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence team.

In each issue of?Friday Risk Watch, you can expect?curated updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and much more. We'll inform you of the latest trends and incidents that could impact your organization's operations, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We're Watching:

Union Members Plan Large-Scale Rallies in South Korea:?The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), one of Korea's largest trade union centers, is poised to wrap up a two-week general strike with large rallies in Seoul tomorrow.??

• Police expect tens of thousands of marchers in Seoul and have warned of?extreme traffic congestion. The primary KCTU march will start at 3:00 pm, but labor groups plan to stage?preliminary demonstrations?throughout the capital at 2:00 pm. Various groups are planning separate protests, demanding the resignation of President Yoon Suk-Yeol.?
• Since July 3, unions under the KCTU umbrella have staged several strikes in opposition to the administration of President Yoon, whom they accuse of engaging in anti-labor policies.?Thousands?have participated in related rallies and vigils during the strike actions.?
• The conclusion of the KCTU strikes coincides with the beginning of an indefinite, nationwide strike by the?Korean Health and Medical Workers' Union (KHMU). It is the first national action by the KHMU since 2004. Thousands of medical workers participated in a?rally?in Seoul on Thursday to kick off the strike.??

Political Uncertainty, Unrest in Thailand as Parliament Fails to Select Prime Minister: Rallies in Thailand are likely to persist throughout the weekend after the Move Forward Party (MFP) leader,?Pita Limjaroenrat, did not win?enough votes?in parliament on Thursday for his selection as prime minister.

• Despite the MFP's electoral success in May, military-appointed representatives still hold significant power in Thailand's parliament,?contributing?to Pita's loss by 51 votes. The body will vote again on Wednesday, and Pita?indicated?he would try again for the prime minister position.?
• A demonstration by Pita's supporters took place earlier today near the Bangkok Art and Culture Centre and Pathumwan intersection in central Bangkok, and additional gatherings are likely in the run-up to the next vote. Rallies are expected to disrupt traffic and could lead to clashes, especially near the parliament building in Bangkok, where police have banned gatherings within 50 meters of the facility.?
• Pita is also facing?legal challenges?that could see him disqualified from the contest and barred from politics, likely intensifying unrest in the country.?

Unrest Grows in Guatemala After Court Suspends Legal Status of Top Presidential Candidate's Party:?Demonstrations are planned across Guatemala in the coming days following a raid on the country's electoral authority and a court decision to suspend the legal status of a leading presidential candidate's political party.?

• On Wednesday, July 12, Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) certified the results of June's presidential election, setting up a runoff between opposition Movimiento Semilla candidate Bernardo Arévalo and former first lady Sandra Torres. However, just before the vote was certified, the Attorney General's office?accused Movimiento Semilla of fraud and suspended its legal status, putting Arévalo's ability to participate in next month's vote in jeopardy.??
• The ruling against Semilla, combined with a?Thursday raid?on TSE headquarters by the Attorney General's Office, is widely viewed as an attempt to bar Arévalo's candidacy. Citizens gathered on Wednesday and Thursday to protest the moves, and demonstrations are planned in Guatemala City and elsewhere through at least Sunday.?
• Protests have remained peaceful thus far, but they bring with them the potential for disruption and clashes. While Guatemala City will likely be the hub for related activity, demonstrations may occur nationwide. Ahead of June's vote, the TSE had?identified?62 municipalities at high risk of electoral violence.?

Southwest U.S. Heat Set to Intensify:?Excessive Heat Alerts?have been issued for over 100 million Southwest and Southern U.S. residents this weekend.??

• Interior Central and Southern California braces for widespread scorching temperatures exceeding 100 degrees. Desert regions like?Death Valley?could peak around 130 degrees on Sunday.??
• On Thursday, the?California Independent System Operator?announced that it does not anticipate any supply shortages and has no plans for issuing Flex Alerts or emergency declarations.
• According to the?National Weather Service, Las Vegas may threaten its all-time high record of 117 degrees. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach around 117 degrees. Similarly, Phoenix, AZ, is on track to?establish a record?for consecutive days with temperatures of 110 or higher.
• Long-term forecasts indicate no respite from the extreme heat. Next week, near record-breaking temperatures are anticipated along the entire West Coast, Southern and Central Plains, and Southeastern U.S.?

Floods Devastate Northern India as Thousands Evacuate:?High-severity heavy rainfall and thunderstorm alerts?remain in effect?for Uttarakhand through Friday night. Northern India has witnessed over 60,000 flood-related evacuations in recent days.?

• Since the start of monsoon season, Delhi has received 113% above-average rainfall, according to the?India Meteorological Department?(IMD). More than 30,000 residents have been forced to evacuate the city, with 5,700 seeking shelter in eight relief camps. In response, authorities have ordered the city's closure of all schools, colleges, and universities until Sunday.??
• The death toll from weather-related incidents since July 6 has surpassed 140. Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh have all experienced widespread devastation. In Himachal Pradesh alone, the death toll has reached 88 since the last week of June. Flash floods have wreaked havoc, destroying bridges and washing out numerous roadways.?
• Over the weekend, localized heavy downpours may persist in areas near Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh. With rainfall exceeding 50mm/hr, these storms could trigger additional flash flooding and disrupt travel. However, the IMD has downgraded weather alerts to low Level 1 or localized Level 2 (3-tier scale) until Sunday.?

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