Friday Risk Watch: January 17, 2025

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Widespread Weather Impacts Across the U.S. This Week: Southern California will receive needed relief this weekend, with lighter onshore winds, increased humidity, and vastly diminished fire weather potential. However, the reprieve may be short-lived as high winds return next week amid unseasonably dry conditions. Meanwhile, the coldest temperatures of the 2024-2025 winter season may impact the Central and Eastern U.S. between Saturday and Tuesday.?

• Southern California remains extremely dry, with the driest July-January period experienced in at least 148 years. The jet stream pattern forecast over the Western U.S. may lead to dangerous Santa Ana Winds by early next week, which could prompt new?Red Flag Warnings. There is still high uncertainty, but models indicate winds increasing late Monday into Tuesday and possibly peaking Wednesday into Thursday.?
• Wind chills may plummet below -30°F in the Northern Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest this weekend, with cities like Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Detroit facing values between -15°F and -25°F by Monday morning. The Northeast I-95 corridor could see "feels-like" temperatures near 0°F, with single digits reaching as far south as Central Georgia and Alabama. A significant warm-up in the East isn’t expected until late next week. ?
• Most of the country will remain dry as moisture stays suppressed along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. However, there are two areas to note. First, D.C., New York City, and Boston could receive a surprise snow event Sunday, with multiple inches of accumulation possible if a disturbance tracks close enough to the shoreline. Second, frozen precipitation may develop Monday night over South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and Southwest Louisiana, extending into the Central Gulf Coast, lower Georgia, and Carolinas by Tuesday. Winter weather alerts are possible but likely won't be issued until late this weekend as forecast confidence increases.?

High-Impact Rain Event Possible Over Southern Italy, Northern Africa: Through Monday, Southern Italy and parts of North Africa face severe weather, including heavy rain, flooding, and gusty winds. These conditions pose significant risks to residents and travelers, with potential disruptions in affected areas.?

• Southern Italy, including Sardegna, Sicilia, and Calabria, may experience persistent storms bringing 4-6 inches (100-150 mm) of rain, with localized totals exceeding 8 inches (200 mm). The heaviest rainfall is expected along south and east-facing coasts and mountain slopes, increasing the risk of flash flooding and landslides. (Note: the following link is in Italian) Maximum Red Level Warnings are in effect. Power outages, travel delays, and dangerous conditions are possible.?
• Rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) may lead to flash flooding in Northern Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, especially in coastal and valley areas. Localized evacuations in flood-prone areas remain possible as the storm intensifies.?

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Heightened Security, Demonstrations Expected Surrounding Trump's Inauguration: Authorities in Washington, D.C. are ramping up security efforts ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday, which coincides with Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Meanwhile, numerous social, civic, and activist groups, including pro-Palestine organizations, are gearing up to hold nationwide demonstrations against Trump. ?

• Due to cold weather, the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural address will be moved indoors to the U.S. Capitol Rotunda at 12:00 pm. The?Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies?is reportedly discussing plans for the Inaugural Parade and how to accommodate the tens of thousands of people expected to attend. The day prior, Trump will hold a “victory rally” at Capital One Arena at 3 pm. Expect heightened security throughout the capital and numerous road closures. ?
• Protest activity surrounding the inauguration will kick off nationwide on Saturday with the “People’s March,” organized by Women’s March and several other organizations. In D.C., around 50,000 people are expected to gather at multiple spots—Farragut Square, McPherson Square, and Franklin Park—at 10 am before proceeding to the Lincoln Memorial for a rally.??
• Demonstrations will continue through Inauguration Day, when pro-Palestine groups and other organizations will hold actions nationwide, including in most major metropolitan areas. Recent developments related to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is expected to fuel further actions by pro-Palestine groups into the weekend.?
• Also on Monday, civil rights organizations plan to hold events across the U.S. to mark Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Cities in Europe will also see demonstrations over the weekend related to Trump's inauguration.?

Heightened Security in Davos as Global Leaders Gather for World Economic Forum: Over 2,500 political, business, and civil society leaders will discuss geoeconomic uncertainty and other global issues at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, which kicks off Monday in Switzerland’s Davos.?

• Significant security measures and resources will be in place for the WEF meeting, including security zones with access restrictions between January 19 and 24. Swiss officials are?deploying up to 5,000 troops to provide security for the event and airspace and traffic restrictions will be in place in and around Davos.?
• The high-profile nature of the WEF gathering makes it an attractive target for demonstrators. Security measures, restrictions, and travel difficulties usually hinder major actions in Davos, but demonstrations have occurred in the past and are planned for this year. Bern will see a demonstration opposed to WEF at Bahnhofplatz on Saturday, and demonstrators will gather in Davos at Davos Platz on Sunday.?
• Last Wednesday, the WEF released its annual Global Risks Report, a key resource for business leaders and policymakers. The report finds that state-based armed conflict tops the list of risks most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2025. ?

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Israeli Government Poised to Approve Temporary Ceasefire With Hamas: As of this writing, the Israeli cabinet is meeting to consider a temporary ceasefire deal with Hamas. The agreement, which the security cabinet has already approved, outlines the transfer of hostages and prisoners in phases over 18 weeks. This would begin with a six-week period that includes Israeli forces withdrawing to the East and away from densely populated areas, an increase in humanitarian aid, and the transfer of Hamas-held hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

• As it stands, the provisional ceasefire deal has three phases, the first of which would go into effect on Sunday and last for six weeks, according to Qatar’s Foreign Ministry. It calls for Hamas to release 33 hostages, while Israel will release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and allow the entry of 600 aid trucks per day.?Many details around the second and third phases remain unresolved.?
• News of the deal touched off celebrations in Gaza and among pro-Palestinian groups elsewhere. However, some protests took place in Israel by those opposed to the release of Palestinian prisoners and disappointed that Hamas was being left intact. Several pro-Palestine groups plan to demonstrate over the weekend, including on Saturday in Berlin (2 pm at Oranienplatz) and London (march from Whitehall to Broadcasting House at 12 pm).?
• There is still significant uncertainty about what will happen in Gaza once phase one is completed. Israeli politicians Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who are key to holding Netanyahu’s coalition government together, have said that they oppose the deal and want the war to continue until Hamas is eradicated. Additionally, current frameworks under discussion for a permanent ceasefire have yet to address who will govern Gaza going forward.?

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