Friday Risk Watch: January 12, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Significant Weather Threats Plague Eastern U.S. and Canada:?One of the strongest low-pressure systems to ever track through Northern Indiana is producing?widespread impacts?from the Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast states.??

• In the?Midwest, winter storm warnings are widespread across Iowa, Southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northern Illinois. Across much of the Great Lakes region, moderate to major travel impacts will likely continue into Saturday morning as high winds and blowing snow create poor visibility.??
• A winter storm will move into interior?Ontario and Quebec?from Friday night to Saturday. Toronto and nearby areas are expected to receive only a little snow, but the forecast is uncertain. However, on Saturday, strong winds with gusts up to 50 mph (80 km/h) could cause problems in London, Hamilton, Toronto, and Kingston, Ontario. Occasional lake-effect snow squalls are also a threat.??
• Across the?Southeast U.S., multiple states are on alert for the threat of damaging winds and tornadoes for the second time this week. Storms have already cleared through Louisiana and Mississippi, but an isolated tornado threat will continue across East Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Friday evening.?

Arctic Air Outbreak Headed for Central United States:?Behind Friday’s storm system,?winter’s coldest temperatures?are beginning to pour southward from Western Canada into the Central United States.??

• Between Saturday and Monday, wind chill readings as low as negative 30 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit will impact Southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Eastern Montana, and the Dakotas.??
• Monday into Tuesday, negative 20 to 25-degree wind chill values could extend as far south as Kansas and Missouri.?
• In Central Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, feel-like temperatures could bottom out near the single digits by Tuesday and Wednesday morning.??
• The severe cold wave has?power?grid?operators?and school district managers on notice, calling residents to prepare for harsh weather. The Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) continues to monitor weather forecasts but is anticipating normal grid conditions.?
• New forecast guidance indicates a light mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow may accompany this cold wave across Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, Arkansas, and surrounding areas Sunday night into Monday. Travelers in the area should continue to monitor forecasts.

March on Washington to Headline Another Weekend of Protest Over Middle East Conflict:?This Saturday marks another “global day of action” for Palestine, with significant marches scheduled in capitals such as Washington D.C., London, Canberra, and more.

• The “March on Washington for Gaza” in D.C. is anticipated to be notably large. Organizers have arranged bus transportation from various states to the capital. Some participants plan to gather for a “pre-rally on the National Mall” at 7 am, preceding the main event, which starts at 1 pm.
• In Oakland, California, demonstrators have called for an action to shut down the city’s port. Organizers have asked participants to gather at the West Oakland BART station on Saturday morning.?
• U.S. activists are also organizing protests to align with Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday. A key event is the “National March for Healthcare Crisis in Gaza” in New York City. Demonstrators will gather at Union Square at noon, then march towards the UN and Gracie Mansion.
• Outside the U.S., large gatherings are expected on Saturday in Dublin’s Garden of Remembrance, Platz der Menschenrechte in Vienna, and Berlin’s Neptune Fountain (Neptunbrunnen). The epicenter of activity in Asia is likely to be Malaysia, where U.S. officials have issued an?alert?over a demonstration planned for Saturday near the embassy in Kuala Lumpur.?

?

Swiss Officials Bolster Security Ahead of Annual World Economic Forum Meeting:?Between January 15-19, more than 2,500 political, business, and media leaders are expected to attend the 2024 World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, including high-ranking representatives from 100 countries. A handful of demonstrations related to WEF are expected throughout the summit, though security measures typically hinder major actions in Davos.?

• The visibility of the event and its prominent guest list make the summit an attractive target for threat actors. The?Swiss Federal Intelligence Service?(FIS) reports that the terrorist threat in the country remains elevated; however, as of December 2023, the agency?had?“no indications of concrete plans for terrorist attacks in Switzerland.”?
• The Swiss government has approved deploying up to 5,000 armed forces to safeguard the event against possible threats. In Davos, there will be major restrictions on roads and airspace. Zurich Airport is?preparing?for around 1,000 extra flights as attendees arrive for the summit.
• Groups opposed to the WEF meeting are organizing a two-day march to Davos’ Town Hall for a rally on Sunday, January 14. Around 200 people?participated?in a similar action last year. In Zurich, demonstrators intend to gather at Helvetiaplatz on January 16 under the slogan, “Smash WEF.”?Additional protests may occur, focusing on the event and its connection to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.??

Taiwan Prepares for General Elections in China’s Shadow:?Expect heightened security and large crowds throughout Taiwan as the island holds a closely-watched general election on Saturday.

• The vote comes amid tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, with Chinese President Xi Jinping?calling?“reunification” with Taiwan a “historical inevitability.”?Voters will select a new president and all 113 members of the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s highest lawmaking body.
• Current Vice President and presidential candidate for the ruling Democratic Progress Party (DPP), Lai Ching-te (also referred to as William Lai), is facing challenges from Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
• As the election nears, incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen has?warned?that China is conducting a disinformation campaign and has recently increased?military?activity near Taiwan. Additionally, there have been reports of cyberattacks. On Tuesday, Mandiant, a cyber threat intelligence firm part of Google Cloud,?alerted?that Taiwan is experiencing a “substantial volume of espionage operations” aimed at its government, technology, and critical infrastructure.
• A win by the incumbent Democratic Progress Party (DPP) would exacerbate tense relations with China.?Beijing?reportedly?views Lai Ching-te, the DPP’s candidate, as a “dangerous separatist” and a “destroyer of cross-strait peace.” Analysts have?speculated?that China would respond to a win by the DPP with further trade measures and extensive military exercises, similar to?those seen?after former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.??

Stay in the Know

• Don’t miss crucial information that can make a difference. Follow us on?Instagram?and?TikTok?for upcoming editions of?Friday Risk Watch, and subscribe for weekly reports that can ensure the safety and security of your organization.?