Friday Risk Watch: January 10, 2025

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

New Fire Weather Risks Loom Over California: Critical fire weather conditions persist in Los Angeles County today despite decreasing winds aiding firefighting efforts. Over 200,000 residents have faced evacuation orders and approximately 7,500 personnel are battling multiple blazes. ?

• At the time of this writing, the Palisades Fire has burned over 17,000 acres, remains 0% contained, and threatens over 13,000 structures. The Eaton Fire has scorched 10,600 acres and destroyed nearly 1,000 structures. Meanwhile, the Hurst Fire has consumed 855 acres and is 10% contained.?
• Red Flag Warnings for high-end critical fire conditions continue through today. Despite some indications of improvement to major ongoing incidents, fluctuating wind speeds and dry air have increased the risk of new fire starts and rapid spread.
• According to Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna, at least 20 looting-related arrests have been made within wildfire evacuation areas. To enhance security, deputies are performing more patrols and positioning themselves at road closures. ?
• While improving weather conditions (increased humidity and lower winds) are forecast over the weekend, medium-range models indicate another Santa Ana wind event is possible on Monday and Tuesday. Preliminary data suggests a repeat of extreme winds is unlikely, but another round of Red Flag Warnings for critical fire conditions may be necessary. ?
• While initial damage estimates are only underway, preliminary assessments point to about $50 billion in damage and insured losses exceeding $20 billion, making this the costliest wildfire disaster in U.S. history.?The fires come as homeowners were already facing?rising insurance premiums and reduced availability.?

Several Southern U.S. States Under Emergency Declaration Amid Winter Storm: A powerful winter storm is sweeping the Southern U.S., bringing major cities—including Nashville, Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh—their first notable winter event since 2022. Nearly 800 flights in and out of Atlanta-Hartsfield Airport are canceled and Birmingham International Airport operations have temporarily shut down. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain upended travel farther west on Thursday. ?

• Comparisons to past winter events like Atlanta’s 2014 snow gridlock and Raleigh's 2005 traffic nightmare have emerged as a cold airmass grips the Eastern U.S. this week. However, proactive measures like school closures and remote work have helped prevent chaos.
• Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee have issued emergency declarations to mitigate storm impacts. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp closed state offices, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey urged residents to avoid unnecessary travel, and Tennessee officials are coordinating resources to address worsening conditions.
• The storm began in Texas and Southern Oklahoma, disrupting air travel in Dallas-Fort Worth, where over 1,200 flights were canceled on Thursday. Friday morning, as the storm moved east, concerns grew over delays and cancellations at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson (ATL) and Memphis (MEM) airports. Treacherous conditions persist along the I-85 corridor, with impacts expected to reach Charlotte, Raleigh, and Richmond tonight.?
• Light to moderate snow and up to a quarter inch of ice will create hazardous roads through Saturday morning. Icy conditions may potentially cause scattered power outages.

Bolivia to See Nationwide Marches, Demonstrations Starting Today: Cities in Bolivia are bracing for nationwide demonstrations in the coming days. A long march from Patacamaya to the capital, La Paz, will begin today. This will be followed by another round of demonstrations on Monday and a large march on Tuesday.?(Note: Some of the following links are in Spanish.)

• Supporters of former President Evo Morales launched the “Great March for Life” from Patacamaya to La Paz, demanding the release of fellow demonstrators, an end to alleged political persecution, and stronger government efforts to combat inflation. Morales himself will not participate. The 98-kilometer march, expected to take three to four days, follows a similar protest in September 2024 that ended in violent clashes.
• On Monday, unions in El Alto, a city bordering La Paz, will hold nationwide demonstrations to protest the economic crisis, including a march to La Paz’s city center. On Tuesday, a large march is scheduled for 8:30 am at the Multifuncional Ceja in El Alto.
• The demonstrations come amid an escalating political dispute between current President Luis Arce, and Morales, who are part of the same party. Arce and Morales, once allies, are embroiled in a power struggle over leadership and candidacy for the 2025 election. Arce's administration has taken legal actions against Morales, including disqualifying his candidacy and charging him with statutory rape, which Morales claims are politically motivated efforts to undermine his influence.?

Mass Mobilization in Germany’s Saxony Expected Against AfD Party Conference: This weekend, German police expect 10,000 people to descend into Riesa, a small town in Eastern Germany, to protest the Alternative for Germany (AfD) federal party conference. The conference comes ahead of early elections on February 23, prompted by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.

• The conference will take place at the WT Energiesysteme Arena (Sachsen Arena) between January 11-12, during which the AfD is?expected to officially elect?Alice Weidel as the party's candidate for chancellor. Widespread demonstrations against the AfD party have taken place in Germany since last January, with protests likely to continue leading up to February’s elections.?
• Police will set up a control area and checkpoints on Friday for approximately 130 buses bringing demonstrators from across Germany into Riesa. Saturday, expect heightened security in the town center, particularly near the?WT Energiesysteme Arena. (Note: the following link is in German.) More information on the control area and traffic restrictions can be found on the Saxony police website.?
• Several groups opposed to the AfD party's policies have organized demonstrations under the campaign slogan “Widersetzen” (Resist). Demonstrators plan to block roads and entrances to the WT Energiesysteme Arena on Saturday morning at 6:30 am, with a large rally outside the venue at 9:00 am.?

Uncertainty Looms in Venezuela Following Nicolás Maduro's Inauguration: This morning, Nicolás Maduro was sworn in as President of Venezuela for a third term despite lingering irregularities regarding vote counts. (Note: Some of the following links are in Spanish.) The inauguration occurred despite worldwide protests called for by Venezuela’s opposition, led by María Corina Machado and their proclaimed President-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, which resulted in numerous arrests.?

• While González insisted that he has a “surprise plan” to return to Venezuela and assume power today, his current whereabouts are unknown. Maduro-allied forces are instructed to arrest González if he steps foot in Venezuelan territory and announced a $100,000 reward for information leading to his capture.?
• Machado is scheduled to address the nation this afternoon. Yesterday, Machado was detained by unknown individuals and later released after attending a rally in Caracas. Machado, who had been in hiding for months, denounced the detention, which she claimed was undertaken by the government, and said that she was forced to record videos. Maduro’s government denies any involvement.
• The opposition called Maduro’s inauguration an “illegal usurpation of power and a coup d'état” and vowed to begin a “new stage” in the “struggle for the freedom of Venezuela.” Numerous world leaders condemned Maduro’s swearing-in, citing concerns over election fraud. Countries, including Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom, imposed further sanctions on various officials linked to Maduro following his inauguration. Protests within the country are likely to continue.

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