Friday Risk Watch: February 21, 2025

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Final Demonstration Push Before German Federal Elections: Heightened security and increased demonstration activity can be expected across Germany in the coming days as the country prepares for federal elections on Sunday. Demonstrations have been primarily driven by opposition to the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and migration policies. Over the past several weeks, large-scale demonstrations have taken place nationwide, including a Munich rally opposing the AfD that attracted an estimated 200,000 people.?

• On Saturday, notable demonstrations will take place in Berlin (Prerower Platz at 1 pm), Hamburg (Willy-Brandt-Stra?e/Domstra?e at 12 pm), and Mannheim (Alter Me?platz at 2 pm). On election day, significant gatherings are planned in Frankfurt (Hauptbahnhof at 7 pm) and Leipzig (Alexis-Schumann-Platz at 6 pm).?
• The election is primarily being contested among the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU) alliance, the AfD party, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), of which current Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a member. At the time of this writing, the CDU/CSU is leading the polls at around 29%, followed by the AfD at 21%, and the SPD at 16%. Polls close at 6 pm on Sunday, and a final official result is expected Monday morning.?
• This weekend, Berlin will see a separate demonstration against the Berlin Senate’s budget guidelines for 2026-2027. A coalition of trade unions and civil society groups is calling for a mass demonstration against budget cuts outside Berlin’s City Hall (Rotes Rathaus) at 2 pm. The Verdi union, one of the Saturday gathering’s main organizers, has been behind a series of warning strikes affecting local public transportation and other municipal services in cities across the country.?

?

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Cause Major Disruptions in Botswana and South Africa: Severe flooding caused by prolonged heavy rain has impacted northern South Africa and Botswana, leading to significant destruction, displacement, and emergency responses. While disruptive rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to continue in parts of South Africa through Friday, showers over flood-affected areas in Botswana and northern South Africa are forecast to become more isolated and subside through Saturday. However, saturated grounds and high river levels will keep the risk of localized flooding elevated.?

• Severe flash flooding in Botswana has caused widespread damage and displacement, particularly in Gaborone. The Water Utilities Corporation warns that Gaborone Dam is nearing full capacity, raising concerns about overspills and further downstream flooding. Road closures persist in Gaborone, Francistown, Lentsweletau, Mochudi, and Manyana/Bokwe/Fikeng, while evacuation centers remain open. All government schools will remain closed until Monday due to flooding.?
• In South Africa, six fatalities have been reported following floods and mudslides in eThekwini, near Durban. North of Pretoria, dozens of homes have flooded, while in the Northwest, electricity provider Eskom has?reported high call volumes related to weather-related outages. Severe weather has been ongoing for multiple days, with one tornado damaging multiple homes and businesses In Pretoria North on Tuesday.?

?

Funeral for Slain Hezbollah Chief to be Held Sunday in Beirut: The funeral for Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime head of Hezbollah who was killed in an Israeli air strike in September 2024, is planned for Sunday in Beirut. Tens of thousands are expected to attend the funeral, and heightened security is anticipated. Ahead of the funeral, the U.S. Embassy in Beirut issued a security alert advising constituents to avoid the area of the ceremony.?

• Nasrallah’s funeral will take place at Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium in Beirut at 1 pm. After the funeral, Nasrallah’s body will be taken to his burial site in Dahiyeh, near Airport Rd.?
• The Rafic Hariri International Airport will be closed from 12 pm – 4 pm for the funeral. In addition, Emirates and Air France have canceled flights to Beirut on Sunday due to concerns over the security situation and potential instability. The decision follows violent protests over the weekend near the airport by Hezbollah supporters reportedly upset that Lebanese authorities were banning flights from Iran. ?
• The funeral comes as a ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel enters uncertain territory. Despite an agreement to withdraw forces from the area south of the Litani River, Israel has retained troops at five “strategic points” within Lebanon, saying that it was necessary for security. Lebanon has called the Israeli troops’ continued presence an “occupation.”?

Renewed Rebel Violence in Colombia Prompts Shutdowns, Curfews, Other Disruptions:?Some regions of Colombia are experiencing disruptions due to renewed violence by rebel groups. Heightened violence, unrest, and disruptions can be expected in the affected regions in the days to come.?(Several of the links below are in Spanish.)

• The ELN claimed responsibility for setting two cargo trucks on fire on the Quibdó - Medellín highway, shutting down the road. The attack cast doubt on the group’s claims that they were ending?a three-day “armed strike” in the coastal department of Chocó that began early Tuesday morning. The strike forced civilians to remain indoors under threat of violence, constraining commercial activity. The governor warned that the “humanitarian crisis in the region has worsened” since the beginning of the strike and there are reports that violence has persisted in some areas, including in the districts of Puerto Murillo and Noanamá. Twelve thousand people reportedly remain confined amid fears of attacks.?
• In Cúcuta, five bomb attacks occurred between Wednesday night and early Thursday morning that authorities suspect were perpetrated by the ELN. At least six people were injured from the explosions. Detonations took place near a key bridge, a police station, and a school. The attacks prompted authorities to implement a 48-hour curfew in the metropolitan area of the city, which was set to end at 6 am today.?The incident comes amid a recent wave of violence in the surrounding the Catatumbo region.??
• Lingering disruptions and continued violence are possible in Chocó and Cúcuta in the days ahead. Despite persistent insecurity in Chocó and Cúcuta related to rebel violence and the drug trade, both areas serve as key locations for Colombia’s economy. Chocó?is home to?mines for critical minerals like gold, while Cúcuta is the largest city along Colombia’s border with Venezuela and serves as one of the country’s most important transit and commercial hubs.?

Stay in the Know

Don’t miss crucial information that can make a difference. Follow us on X and TikTok for upcoming editions of Friday Risk Watch, and subscribe for weekly reports that can ensure the safety and security of your organization.