Friday Risk Watch: February 14, 2025

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.

Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Eastern U.S. Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Saturday: Several Eastern U.S. states will face heavy rain, flash flooding, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes heading into Saturday. Those in the lower portions of Indiana, Ohio, the Virginias, and the Central Gulf Coast should be weather-aware going into President’s Day weekend.

• The Weather Prediction Center issued a Level 3 excessive rainfall risk (4-tier scale) across Tennessee, Kentucky, lower West Virginia, and Southwest Virginia. Memphis, Nashville, and Louisville are a few cities in higher-risk areas. Showers and thunderstorms will bring 2-4 inches of rain in 24 hours, with some areas exceeding 6-7 inches. Rain may fall at over an inch per hour for several hours.
• This region has already observed heavy rainfall over the last two weeks, with amounts doubling the long-term average for this time of year. Given these variables, the Weather Prediction Center may upgrade the excessive rainfall threat to ‘High Risk.’ Highway closures, evacuations, and water rescues are possible.
• The Storm Prediction Center issued a Level 3 enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms (5-tier scale) across Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Ruston, Alexandria, Jackson, Starkville, and Tuscaloosa are at the highest risk. Wind gusts over 60-70 mph and a few tornadoes, some strong (EF2+), are likely. Scattered power outages may occur. Severe storms will peak late Saturday afternoon into the evening.
• Those in the threat area should review their severe weather preparedness plan, including where to seek shelter if a tornado warning is issued for their location.

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Second Winter Storm Bound for Eastern Canada, Potentially Interior Northeast U.S.: The same expansive storm system could bring major winter storm impacts to Canada and the Northeast U.S. from late Saturday to Sunday. While the worst-hit areas are still uncertain, widespread winter storm alerts are expected.

• Before daybreak Saturday, light snow showers may develop across Southern Ontario, including London and Toronto. Snowfall will increase throughout the day, peaking Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Final snow totals may range between 15-30 cm (6-12 inches). Ontario will see decreasing snow activity Sunday night and Monday, but persistent gusty winds may still generate blowing snow, limited visibility, and travel disruptions.
• A day after a winter storm shut down schools and disrupted southern Quebec, Eastern Canada’s largest cities face the threat of significant snowfall.?Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, and parts of Upstate NY, VT, NH, and ME may see moderate to heavy snow, gusty winds, and poor visibility from Saturday morning to Sunday night. Trailing snow showers, blowing snow, and poor visibility will likely cause disruptions and closures into Monday.

Car-Ramming Attack in Munich Injures Dozens Ahead of Security Conference: A car drove into a group of people in Munich yesterday, with at least 28 reportedly hurt. The incident occurred a day before the Munich Security Conference (MSC), attended by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and 10 days before Germany’s federal elections.

• Munich police detained the suspect, a 24-year-old asylum-seeker from Afghanistan. Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter said the suspect was in the country legally, contrary to earlier reports. Recent high-profile attacks by foreign citizens residing in Germany, including a car-ramming attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, have propelled security and immigration policies to the forefront of electoral issues. Investigations into the driver’s motives are ongoing.?
• Heightened security measures were already in place in Munich ahead of the MSC, an annual conference that routinely attracts demonstrations. A major march is planned for Saturday, with the route beginning at Karlsplatz at 1 pm and ending at Marienplatz at 3:30 pm.?
• Outside of Munich, cities across Germany will see significant demonstrations this weekend ahead of the February 23 federal elections. Most protests have been directed against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party also receiving widespread criticism after cooperating with the AfD. Both parties’ picks for chancellor called for tougher migration policies following the Munich car attack.?

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Demonstrations Planned Across U.S. Against Trump Administration Policies: Following the “505051” demonstrations held at state capitols across the?United States on February 5, organizers plan another protest against President Trump’s policies on President’s Day.?Before that, demonstrators will picket Tesla dealerships on Saturday, while pro-Palestine groups plan "emergency protests" in response to Trump’s recent Gaza comments.

• Several demonstrations are planned for Monday in state capitals and major cities, with most beginning midday. Locations include Philadelphia (City Hall at 12 pm), New York City (Union Square at 1 pm), Washington DC (U.S. Capitol Building at 12 pm), Chicago (Federal Plaza at 12 pm), and Los Angeles (Placita Olvera at 10 am and City Hall at 3 pm).?
• Before Monday’s protests, demonstrators are organizing pickets and rallies at Tesla dealerships in cities including Austin, Sacramento, Seattle, and Boston.
• Pro-Palestine groups are also planning actions on Saturday to protest Trump’s plan to “take over” Gaza and relocate the existing population to Egypt and Jordan. Demonstration locations include New York City (Dag Hammarskj?ld Plaza at 2 pm), Los Angeles (Wilshire Federal Building at 12 pm), Washington DC (Embassy of Jordan at 3 pm), and San Franciso (Powell St BART Plaza at 1 pm). Outside the U.S., gatherings are also planned in London (Parliament Square Gardens at 11 am) and Toronto (U.S. Consulate at 2 pm).

Mexico City to See Major Traffic Disruptions on Monday Due to Mega March: Expect disruptions in and around Mexico City on Monday due to a “mega march” planned by the Union of Transporters, Merchants, and Entrepreneurs of the Mexican Republic. The group demands that the federal government intervene in alleged “acts of extortion and fabrication of crimes” by local authorities, which the groups claim affect their operations.?

• The march is scheduled for 8 am on Monday. Demonstrators will gather at five points in the State of Mexico before marching to the National Palace at the capital’s Zócalo. The gathering points include Puente de Fierro San Cristóbal, the Mexico-Querétaro toll booth near Tepotzotlán, the Mexico-Cuernavaca toll booth heading towards Mexico City, the Ignacio Zaragoza toll booth in Cabeza de Juárez, and the La Marquesa Mexico-Toluca toll booth in the direction of Mexico City.?
• Expect severe traffic disruptions near the gathering points. A similar march on February 10 saw widespread disruptions, including blockades on major roadways.?
• (Note: The following link is in Spanish.) In a separate development, transport groups in Puebla plan to rally at the capital’s Zócalo on Saturday at 10 am to protest the government's plan to reinstate mandatory vehicle inspections.

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