Friday Risk Watch: August 18, 2023

Stay ahead of risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, weather forecasts, geopolitical developments, and more. We'll inform you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We're Watching:?

Hurricane Hilary Makes Way for Mexico: Hurricane Hilary is set to deliver damaging winds and flooding rain across Mexico's Baja Peninsula between Saturday, August 19, and Monday, August 21. Impacts will extend into Southern California, Western Arizona, and southern portions of Nevada and Utah between Saturday and Tuesday. This will be a rare, high-severity weather event for parts of the region. ?

• Hilary, currently positioned south of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the last 24 hours. The storm may slowly weaken on its approach to Baja. However, widespread damaging winds, coastal storm surge, and inland flooding remain likely across the Baja Peninsula between Saturday and Monday.??
• While hurricane conditions are not in the cards for Southern California and Western Arizona, borderline tropical storm winds and intense rainfall will likely worsen over the region between late Saturday and Tuesday. It could be California's first tropical cyclone landfall?since 1939.?
• Consecutive days of above-average rain could result in?widespread flooding, potentially prompting the closure of several highways and interstate corridors. Within high terrain, widespread gusts over 40-50 mph will raise the threat of scattered power outages. Frequent squalls and elevated winds could also result in widespread flight disruption.??
• Similar impacts will likely extend into neighboring Southern Utah and Nevada, including the Las Vegas metro. Those within low-lying areas should consider where to seek shelter if flood warnings or localized evacuations are issued.

Extreme Fires Continue to Rage Over Western Canada & Europe:?In what has been a historic year for Canadian fires, the western provinces remain exceptionally active, with over 700 wildfires in progress. Across the Atlantic, Europe also faces fire activity amid an abnormal heat wave.?

• In recent days, Canada's Northwest Territories (N.T.) have been hit the hardest. Yellowknife, the province's most populated community and capital,?has begun phased evacuations for the first time in its history?due to increasing wildfire danger. Numerous N.T. communities, including Hay River and Fort Smith, have seen large fires come dangerously close this week. Several key rural highways have become cut off by fire, and in many cases, the only means of evacuation is via plane. Other areas, such as?Kelowna?in British Columbia, have declared local emergencies as wildfires destroy structures and prompt thousands of evacuations.?
• In Europe, hot and dry conditions have resulted in the spread of multiple large fires, including one that has sparked evacuations in?the Canary Islands?and another in?Argelès-sur-Mer, France. The forecast doesn't bode well for much of West-Central Europe. Through next week, one of the most abnormal heat waves of summer 2023 is expected to intensify.??
• Many locations across Portugal, Spain, France, Southern Germany, Switzerland, Italy, and adjoining nations may observe afternoon highs up to 15 degrees Celsius above average. Excessive heat coupled with widespread dry conditions and vegetation will likely spur more wildfires and localized evacuations.?

Sweden Increases Terrorism Threat Amid Quran Burnings:?The Swedish Security Service?raised?the country's terrorism threat level from elevated (3) to high (4) on a five-tier scale. The decision follows a?series of Quran burnings?that sparked retaliatory demonstrations and violence in countries with large Muslim populations.?

• The Director General of the Swedish Security Service said that Sweden is now a prioritized target by "violent Islamist actors" and that the threat of a terrorist attack "will remain for a long time." Swedish officials?report?that they have thwarted terrorism attempts after the public Quran burnings and claim that several jihadist groups are encouraging attacks on the country.?
• Sweden has?bolstered?border security measures and intelligence coordination between foreign and domestic agencies in response to the threats. The government was also?considering?banning demonstrations involving intentional damage to religious texts. However, no such measure has been introduced, and a Quran burning?occurred today?outside the Iranian Embassy in Stockholm.?
• The U.S. Embassy in Stockholm?advises?citizens to use caution in and around diplomatic facilities and when frequenting crowded public venues due to "possible retaliatory attacks by terrorists in the wake of recent Quran burning incidents." Swedish authorities?recommend?that citizens and Swedish interests abroad stay vigilant after violent incidents targeting diplomatic facilities in?Beirut?and?Baghdad.?

Guatemala, Ecuador to Vote Following Campaigns Marked by Violence, Accusations of Interference:?Unrest and heightened security are expected across Ecuador and Guatemala as voters participate in nationwide elections on Sunday. In a runoff election, Guatemalans will choose between political newcomer Bernardo Arévalo and former First Lady Sandra Torres. Meanwhile, Ecuador will hold a first round of voting in snap elections called by current President Guillermo Lasso after he faced impeachment proceedings in May. Demonstrations are possible depending on the vote outcome in each country, especially if there are perceived irregularities.?

• Observers are looking at Guatemala's runoff contest as a major test for their democracy, which has appeared increasingly shaky in recent years. Recent?polls?show Arévalo leading Torres after fending off an attempt by the Attorney General's office to disqualify his party due to fraud allegations. Civic groups and international observers have accused the Attorney General of attempting to?interfere?in the election. The first round of voting saw attacks on several polling stations, a trend that may continue during Sunday's vote.?
• In Ecuador, security is top of mind for voters. A?skyrocketing homicide rate?fueled by warring drug trafficking organizations and several high-profile political assassinations (including of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio) is fueling safety concerns in what was once one of South America's safest locations. In response to the escalating violence, incumbent President Guillermo Lasso declared a nationwide state of emergency and deployed security forces nationwide.?
• Should no presidential candidate secure more than 50% of the vote, or 40% with a ten-point lead, Ecuador will hold runoff elections on October 15. Voters will also give their opinion on an?oil drilling project?in the Amazon that indigenous communities have opposed.?

Tensions High on Korean Peninsula as Washington and Seoul Prepare for Drills:?On Thursday, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS)?advised lawmakers?that they expect Pyongyang to resume weapons testing in response to a large-scale, joint U.S.-South Korea military training exercise that starts Monday.??

• U.S. Navy officials?say?the 11-day drills will include several training events to increase combat readiness and "strengthen the security and stability on the Korean peninsula and across Northeast Asia."?
• Previous exercises of this nature have?prompted?North Korean missile tests, and the NIS said it had recently observed "unusually heavy activities" at certain weapons sites. The NIS assessment on a potential resumption of testing came days after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un?called?for a dramatic increase in arms production.?
• Amid the friction on the peninsula, South Korea?plans to hold?a nationwide civil defense drill this coming Wednesday. The exercise, the first of its kind in six years, will?reportedly?last 20 minutes and include "evacuation training and traffic restrictions in an air raid attack scenario."?

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