Friday Risk Watch: August 11, 2023

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

In each issue, expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and more. We'll inform you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We're Watching:?

High Winds and Drought Fuel Historic Hawaiian Wildfires:?Several dozen deaths and the destruction of nearly 2,000 structures?have been confirmed following a rapid wildfire that struck Lahaina, a historic community in Western Maui. Officials report over 70% containment to the Lahaina and Kihei fires.??

• The rising death toll has made the Lahaina wildfire the deadliest wildfire-related incident in the United States since California's Camp Fire in 2018. The death toll is expected to rise as search, rescue, and fire containment operations continue.?
• Mass evacuations have affected more than 28,000 people, with President Biden ordering?federal aid. Extended disruption will likely impact transportation and phone services. Around 11,000 West Maui residents remain without power, and Hawaiian Electric is warning customers to prepare for extended outages that may last several weeks.?
• This exceptional event was worsened by?Dora, a category-four hurricane that passed 700 miles to the south. Elevated wind strength coupled with?moderate to severe drought?set the stage for dangerous wildfire conditions. Wind conditions have since normalized, though dry and breezy weather may still result in at least moderate fire risk in the week ahead.??

Texas Battling Increased Fire Activity Amid Prolonged Heat Wave and Drought Conditions:?Texas has endured record-breaking heat since June, with the?ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas)?power grid continually strained. Amidst the heat wave, drought and fire conditions have escalated alongside water restrictions in both rural and urban areas.?

• Texas faces relentless heat marked by a?record-breaking?35 consecutive days of highs exceeding 100 degrees in Austin. Conditions should remain relatively unchanged over the next seven to 10 days, with daily highs projected to range between 103 to 108 degrees (locally higher) across much of the state.??
• This week has seen several notable fires, including a blaze designated the "Parmer Lane Fire" in urban areas of Cedar Park, just north of Austin. The fire destroyed one apartment building and damaged three others before forward progress was?halted. As of Friday afternoon, over 60 actively-tracked fires have burned approximately 10,000 acres.?
• On Tuesday, the?Texas A&M Forest Service?raised the week's preparedness risk to a level four (five-tier scale), indicative of high fire danger. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Red Flag Warnings along the I-35 corridor and Hill Country for most of this week. Ongoing heat, lack of organized rainfall, and?increasingly severe drought?will continue to promote fire ignitions heading into the weekend.?Burn Bans?are currently in effect for at least 178 of Texas's 254 counties.?

State of Emergency Declared in Ecuador Following Presidential Candidate's Assassination:?Expect heightened security across Ecuador following the assassination of a presidential candidate on Wednesday, August 9. The country's current president, Guillermo Lasso, has declared a 60-day state of emergency and ordered nationwide military deployments to help ensure safety ahead of elections on Sunday, August 20.?

• Assailants?fatally shot?presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio while leaving a campaign rally in Northern Quito on Wednesday.?Nine other people?were shot during the assassination and ensuing gunfight. Villavicencio was the latest politician targeted in a string of attacks in recent weeks that have killed a mayor and candidate for the National Assembly.?
• Wednesday's incident reflects Ecuador's?current security environment?and highlights the potential threat to bystanders at political rallies ahead of elections. The U.S. Embassy in Quito issued a?Security Alert?advising citizens to avoid crowds and demonstrations.?
• The state of emergency declaration could also bring curfews and movement restrictions. However, government officials have yet to announce such measures as of this writing.?

Japan Stares Down Typhoon Lan:?The Western Pacific has been highly active with multiple typhoon threats in recent weeks, and this weekend is no exception.??

• As of Friday night (JST),?Typhoon Lan?is equivalent to a category-three hurricane with estimated gusts over 140 mph. Sunday night into Monday, some weakening is likely before hurricane-force winds reach coastal Central Japan. However, destructive winds and dangerous coastal storm surge remain probable within 40-50 miles of the landfalling center. Minimal tropical storm conditions could extend even farther, over 170 miles from the center of circulation.??
• As of early Friday, forecast data points towards a direct landfall between Shizuoka and Osaka, with Tokyo still within the forecast margin of error.??
• Heavy rain, inland freshwater flooding, and landslides could be the most widespread hazards. Rain totals above eight to 12 inches may prompt evacuation orders in vulnerable areas.?

Taiwan VP to Make Stops in U.S., Likely Triggering Response From China:?Tensions will be high in East Asia in the coming days as Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te makes two stops in the U.S. on either side of a trip to Paraguay. Previous visits of this nature have prompted aggressive military drills by China, and officials in Taipei?believe?similar activity is on the horizon.?

• Lai will?stop?in New York City on Saturday, August 12, and San Francisco on Wednesday, August 16. China has voiced opposition to the planned visit by Lai.
• Visits to Taiwan or the U.S. by their respective high-ranking officials have led to retaliatory actions by China. In April, China held?multi-day drills?around Taiwan following a stopover in the U.S. by President Tsai Ing-wen. China also held?war games?in Taiwan after Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House at the time, made an official visit to Taiwan in August 2022.?
• Before the trip, Taiwan accused China of?staging multiple incursions?into its air defense identification zone. A separate incident last weekend saw Chinese Coast Guard ships reportedly?firing water cannons?at Philippine Coast Guard ships in the South China Sea.??

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