Friday Risk Watch: April 26, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

Central U.S. Faces Elevated Tornado Risk and Storm Activity This Weekend:?Historical tornado?stats?confirm that 2024 U.S. tornado activity is running near normal as of April 25. At the time of this publication, there were 295 reported tornadoes. The year-to-date average is 293. Based on multiple forecast indicators, national tornado numbers may spike late Friday into the weekend. ?

• Beginning?Friday, strong tornadoes, large destructive hail, and damaging winds will target parts of West-Central Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Eastern Kansas, and Northwest Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Kansas City, Omaha, and Lincoln under a significant Level 3 (5-tier scale) severe thunderstorm risk. Primary storm timing is between 3:00-7:00 pm. Farther south into lower Missouri, Eastern Oklahoma, and Northwest Arkansas, strong to severe storms are also possible into the late evening. ?
• Saturday?has the potential for more significant weather, with?strong?storms likely from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. The areas of?greatest?concern—East-Central Kansas, Western Missouri, Central Oklahoma, and North Texas—have already been placed under a Level 3 risk. Those?near Kansas City, Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Wichita Falls, and Dallas-Ft. Worth should remain weather aware. Notable storm activity may initiate shortly after midday and continue throughout the region overnight. ?
• The Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted the potential for at least some organized severe activity on?Sunday?from the lower Great Lakes into Northeast Texas and the Ozarks. ?

Campus Encampments for Gaza Spread, Prompting Police Response: Protests are spreading across college and university campuses, with students demanding that their institutions divest from companies linked to Israel’s military. These demonstrations have prompted a significant police presence, resulting in hundreds of arrests and leading some institutions to close their campuses and transition to online or hybrid classes.

• The protest movement?began just?over a week ago when?student activists at?Columbia University and Barnard launched a “Gaza Solidarity Encampment.”?Despite the arrest of more than 100 students, the demonstration at Columbia remains ongoing. As of Friday morning, Columbia officials?stated, "We have our demands; they have theirs. A formal process is underway and continues.” ?
• The demonstration at Columbia has sparked similar protests and encampments at over three dozen other institutions. Many of these have prompted a significant police response and scores of arrests, including at?New York University,?Yale University, the?University of Texas at Austin,?Emory University,?University of Southern California, Emerson College,?California State Polytechnic University,?Indiana University, the?University of Minnesota, and others. Similar demonstrations have occurred at universities outside the United States, including?Sciences Po?in Paris and the?University of Melbourne?in Australia. ?
• Several protest encampments remain ongoing, with more expected in the coming days. Universities appear particularly concerned that the demonstrations will disrupt graduation events.?USC, which sparked protests when they?canceled the graduation speech of valedictorian Asna Tabassum, has?elected to also?forego its primary commencement ceremony.??

El Ni?o Amplifies Contrasting Droughts and Floods in Africa:?Millions across Central and Southern Africa are at the mercy of the extreme conditions, with rampant flooding in the north and perilous droughts in the south.

• Tanzania,?Kenya, and?Somalia?are experiencing heavy rainfall, surpassing typical seasonal norms. The flooding has reportedly caused over 200 deaths and affected 700,000 people in East Africa. Kenya has experienced the latest flood incidents, with over?a dozen confirmed fatalities?in recent days.
• Meanwhile, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Angola, and Mozambique are facing?intense drought, with rainfall dropping below 20 percent of expected levels for February. The drought has?crippled?agriculture and intensified food scarcity for millions, with several countries declaring national disasters.?
• El Ni?o's influence will persist into May, further straining affected communities. According to the?UN Food and Agriculture Organization, cited by international media,?worsening grain shortages?are expected, exacerbating a dire food security situation for 16 million people.?

Schools Shutter from India to Philippines Under Searing Heat Wave:?In recent weeks, a dome of high pressure has prompted excessive heat and drier-than-average weather conditions across much of South Asia. The effects of this weather pattern include water shortages, nationwide school closures, electric conservation, and rolling blackouts.?Medium-range?forecast models indicate little change in the regional weather pattern through at least May 1st. ?

• In the Philippines, in-person learning has?been suspended?across various districts?dating back to?at least April 2nd. Within the last week, heat indexes over 116F (47C) forced thousands of schools to shift to?remote learning.
• The?Department of Energy?announced new strategies to tackle ongoing power shortages, potentially affecting millions. With rising temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, the Luzon power grid has been placed under red and yellow alerts several times this month, signaling a severe strain on power supplies in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.?
• Across Vietnam, at least three provinces have declared a state of emergency due to drought and?water shortages. ?Every school in Bangladesh closed?this week due to extreme heat, with over 33 million students affected. Within the broader population,?heatstroke incidents?are on the rise.?
• Although India lies along the western edge of the heat wave, it, too, has been affected by severe temperatures.?Four-day school closures?were announced in Tripura last Wednesday.?

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