Friday Risk Watch: April 12, 2024

Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with?Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our?Global Intelligence Team.

Expect?updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What We’re Watching

U.S. Severe Spring Storms to Reignite Monday to Wednesday:?As the spring storm season gains momentum, the Central High Plains are gearing up for potentially intense weather, including possible tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail beginning Monday. Parts of the Deep South and Ohio Valley are still reeling from localized tornado damage?earlier this week.?

• The?Storm Prediction Center?issued ominous outlooks for Monday, pinpointing areas between Oklahoma City, Wichita, and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex as having the greatest risk for organized severe weather.??
• Moisture originating from the western Gulf, combined with enhanced wind shear and thunderstorm instability, will fuel significant thunderstorm development by Monday afternoon and evening. Surrounding regions, including Central Texas northward to Iowa, may also experience scattered severe thunderstorms.
• By Tuesday, this dynamic weather system will advance into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Similar severe hazards could target areas between Little Rock and Chicago as the threat shifts east.??
• Forecast models are lining up for a potentially busy week ahead, though some uncertainty remains about the storm's evolution. Residents should stay informed with weather updates and have a safety plan ready.

?

Russian Residents Angered by Putin's “Poor” Performance as Southern Regions Flood:?Flooding across Southern Russia and Northern Kazakhstan is common during spring due to the Ural Mountains' melting snow and increased water volume in rivers and streams. However, this year's floods are?among the worst in a century?due to saturated soil, heavy snowfall, and a rapid temperature spike in recent weeks. More than 120,000 people have been evacuated.

• Preliminary flood damage estimates?in Russia’s Orenburg region will exceed 40 billion rubles ($428 million USD), according to the governor. On Friday, local officials confirmed widespread evacuations were underway in the City of Orenburg. Elsewhere, in Orsk,?nearly all residents have been evacuated,?with extraction efforts ongoing. The few residents that remain are without electricity and running water. Orenburg Governor Denis Pasler has told President Putin that?nearly 12,000 homes have flooded, and at least 19,000 more are in danger.??
• In Russia’s Kurgan region,?flooding is getting progressively worse.?New calls for evacuations were announced on Thursday, and peak water levels are forecast between April 12 and 14. Regional emergency management estimates that nearly 19,000 people and 4,300 homes will be threatened by flooding in Kurgan alone.??
• In?rare protests, Russian flood victims have expressed anger at President Putin and federal authorities for what they consider to be a subpar response to the disaster.??
• According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, over 97,852 people have been evacuated and rescued in Kazakhstan. At least 3,524 homes are underwater. Floods have inundated hundreds of roadways across 68 municipalities. Over 24,000 personnel and 482 water pumps have been mobilized to address the situation.??

Guatemala Engulfed by Arsonist-Driven Wildfires:?On Wednesday, President Bernardo Arévalo declared a nationwide?state of calamity?due to several ongoing fires. The declaration's main purpose is to provide additional resources for firefighting crews working to contain fires.?(Please note the links in this section are in Spanish.)

• The most prominent fire involves a landfill in Villa Nueva, which crews are still struggling to contain. Widespread smoke near Guatemala City has caused air quality concerns. On Thursday, the National Institute of Meteorology issued a?Special Bulletin, confirming that air quality levels in Guatemala City reached “dangerous” levels.?
• According to media citing national officials, arson is suspected in approximately 80% of ongoing fires throughout the country.??
• As of April 10, the?2023-2024 forest fire season?has involved 1,382 incidents and 7,344 hectares. Fire season can begin in early November and linger through the end of April.?

Millions in South and Southeast Asia to Celebrate New Year:?As South and Southeast Asian countries gear up for New Year's celebrations starting Saturday, April 13, expect increased security, travel delays, and possible traffic accidents and fatalities. Festivals include Songkran (Thailand), Pohela Boishakh (Bangladesh, Indian state of?West Bengal), Baisakhi (Indian state of?Punjab), Khmer New Year/Choul Chnam Thmey (Cambodia), and Thingyan (Myanmar).??

• The U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh issued a security alert for New Year’s festivities in?Cambodia. The embassy noted that road safety was the principal concern due to an increase in the number of people driving under the influence.??
• Officials in?Thailand?voiced similar concerns around drunk driving, moving to?tighten?controls around the sale of alcohol until April 21. The decision comes after more than 2,200 road accidents, resulting in 264 deaths, were?recorded?during last year’s festival period. The Public Health Ministry also issued a?warning?for heat stroke.??
• Expect heightened security in cities across?Myanmar?as the country prepares to celebrate Thingyan against the backdrop of an ongoing civil war. On April 4, the National Unity Government (NUG)?announced?rare drone attacks on two military installations in the capital of Naypyitaw. The U.S. Embassy issued a?security alert?cautioning against participating in regime-sponsored Thingyan festivities, as warned by People’s Defense Force groups.??

Widespread Demonstration Activity Persists as Iran Attack Threat Rises: Israel is bracing for retaliatory action from Iran after a strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus killed multiple Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp members at the start of the month. Meanwhile, widespread demonstrations in response to the conflict in the Middle East are planned this weekend, culminating in calls for a worldwide “economic blockade” on Monday, April 15.?

• This week, Iran?reiterated?its promise to retaliate for the strike on its embassy in Syria. U.S. officials warn?of an imminent attack on Israeli assets, and the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued a?security alert?on Thursday restricting government employee travel and advising citizens that “security incidents often take place without warning.” Several other countries have issued similar warnings.??
• The AlertMedia team has identified actions in dozens of cities across Europe on Saturday. Expect major gatherings at Parliament Square in?London?(12 pm) and Place Bellecour in?Lyon?(3 pm). In Western?Ireland, demonstrators plan to block the Shannon International Airport on Sunday, April 14.?
• A movement dubbed the “A15 Action” is calling for a “coordinated economic blockade to free Palestine” on Monday. The decentralized day of action involves calls to target infrastructure and commercial hubs, with most organizers unlikely to publicly announce actions prior to their occurrence. Known demonstration locations include Wall St in?Manhattan, Boeing in?Arlington, Tesla in?Fremont, the Kahului Harbor in?Hawaii, A.W. Bell outside of?Melbourne, the Angel of Independence monument in?Mexico City, and the Pie-IX metro station in?Montreal?early in the morning.?

Stay in the Know

• Don’t miss crucial information that can make a difference. Follow us on?Instagram?and?TikTok?for upcoming editions of?Friday Risk Watch, and subscribe for weekly reports that can ensure the safety and security of your organization.?