French Legislative Elections: What Happened and What’s Next?

On Sunday, French citizens said “non” to the far right- though 10 million people would disagree with this statement.

What happened?

The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), a coalition of the main left-wing and Green parties, secured the most seats with 180. President Macron's party, Ensemble, along with its allies, followed with 163 seats. The National Rally came in third with 143 seats (these numbers are subject to minor changes in the coming days, source FranceInfo).

This is still a major increase in seats for the National Rally, which had 89 deputies before these elections and only 8 in 2020. While the RN did come third, the two other blocs (Left & Greens and presidential/centre) are coalitions, leaving the National Rally the actual leading party in France. The reasons driving 10 million people to vote for the far right have also not disappeared overnight.

Despite this clear fragmentation, the lines taken by the three blocs are clear: the Left & Greens claim they have won, Macron’s party is calling for a “large central bloc” eyeing the Socialists and the Greens, while the far right is claiming a “delayed victory”, anticipating the imminent implosion of their opponents.?

So, what’s next?

The Left coalition's win is far from the absolute majority and the 289 seats necessary to govern freely and fully, yet their plurality of seats means they are still expected to propose a new prime minister. Current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has announced his will to resign but was asked to stay by Macron, as it is customary for the Prime Minister to stay in power until a new one is appointed.

But who will this be? The answer to this question remains unclear as this three blocks situation is unprecedented.

The tricky thing is that the far Left is leading in terms of seats within the NFP at the national level, but last month, the Socialists were leading in the European elections. Hence they are both claiming to be the leading party.

Additionally, none of the moderate Left will accept far-left leader Mélenchon as Prime Minister, as they consider him a loose cannon and an easy target for the right. Yet, the socialists currently have no leading man or woman charismatic enough to hold such a difficult “cohabitation” position. The real shining star of this campaign is the national secretary of the Greens, Marine Tondelier (yes, another Marine), who has handled most of the internal negotiations and convinced many. However, her party might not be popular enough to put forward a candidate for such a high position.

Is this what Macron wanted?

As a reminder, even in the case of major political instability, the National Assembly cannot legally be dissolved again within the year. Months of political gridlock seem to be on the horizon. Another likely scenario exists in the possibility of the Left coalition splitting and the moderate sides of the Socialists and the Greens forming a government with Macron’s Ensemble.

This ongoing electoral reshuffle coincides with a major reconfiguration of the European political landscape, and as a result of this unexpectedly favourable electoral result for Macron, he will continue to have a chance to shape not only France – albeit with downsized political influence – but also the European Union.

This next year, and indeed the next two years before entering the political campaign for the 2027 presidential elections, will therefore be a crucial time for the Left and the Greens to demonstrate their ability to govern jointly and coherently and to address the concerns and needs of the French people that have been neglected for too long, namely: impoverishment, the weakening of public services, the climate crisis, the lack of social mobility and more.

A failure to do so would unfold a red carpet for a far-right “président.e” in 2027.

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